Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over Wyoming as upslope easterly flow remains in place across much of the central and northern Plains. Across the moist airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with storms moving eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Large-scale ascent should remain relatively weak, favoring discrete modes. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21z have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots which will support supercell development. In addition to the shear, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This will be favorable for large hail with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Low-level flow will increase during the early evening, which will help maintain a severe threat. Further to the east into parts of the mid Missouri Valley, and southward into the southern Plains, convective coverage is expected to remain very isolated due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60 to mid 70s F from the Appalachian foothills to the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. Topographic forcing in the Appalachians and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered convective initiation around midday. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT. While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies, 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT. While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies, 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT. While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies, 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT. While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies, 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT. While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies, 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT. While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies, 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT. While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies, 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT. While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies, 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025 Read more

MD 1281 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... FOR SOUTHWEST NE INTO WESTERN KS AND PARTS OF EASTERN CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Areas affected...Southwest NE into western KS and parts of eastern CO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413... Valid 140432Z - 140600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat could persist into the early overnight. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster recently produced a 57 kt gust in Ogalalla, NE. Moderate downstream buoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support some severe-wind threat in the short term as this system moves across southwest NE and extreme northwest KS. The longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to increasing MLCINH with time. Some backbuilding along the trailing outflow also remains possible into far northeast CO. Farther south, a storm cluster has shown some signs of intensification across southeast CO. With strong downstream buoyancy (MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg) and the nocturnal low-level jet forecast to become focused into southwest KS overnight, there is some potential for this cluster to intensify with time, and potentially pose some threat for severe wind and hail. However, this potential remains uncertain due to the competing influences of increasing CINH and generally modest deep-layer flow/shear. Trends will be monitored for an uptick in severe potential and the need for watch issuance downstream of this cluster. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37570334 38230363 38520337 38820257 39360242 40020242 42060181 42010047 40739975 39789970 39119980 38309994 37680021 37310061 37090192 37570334 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW IML TO 20 WNW MCK TO 30 N MCK TO 20 NNE LBF TO 10 S MHN. ..KERR..06/14/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-199-140640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC047-057-063-065-073-085-087-145-140640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER HAYES HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281 ..DEAN..06/14/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-199-140540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-029-047-057-063-065-073-075-085-087-101-111-117-135-145- 140540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN MCPHERSON PERKINS RED WILLOW Read more

MD 1280 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411...412... FOR EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Areas affected...Eastern MT into northeast WY and northwest SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...412... Valid 140253Z - 140430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411, 412 continues. SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may continue through late evening. WW 411 has been extended to 10 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...An earlier intense supercell cluster has weakened slightly across southeast MT, but likely remains severe as of 0245 UTC, and additional storms have intensified to its north and east. This convection across southeast MT is ongoing within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment, and will likely continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat through late evening. There is some indication that the ongoing storms across Rosebud County may evolve into a larger cluster with time. While MLCINH will generally increase with time and eastward extent, any organized upscale growth could support a greater longevity of the severe wind and hail threat into far southeast MT and perhaps northwest SD and vicinity. WW 411 has been extended in time to 10 PM MDT, and trends will be monitored regarding the potential for any downstream watch issuance late tonight. Farther north, a marginal supercell is ongoing across northeast MT, to the northeast of Glasgow. Instability is weaker in this area, but the KGGW VWP depicts a favorably veering wind profile, and an isolated severe threat could accompany this cell before it eventually weakens. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45320704 47210659 48620749 48630679 48580602 46600471 45860363 44910295 44710431 44770558 44820626 45320704 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more