Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A seasonably modest mid-level jet will be positioned over the northern CONUS with the entrance region over the northern parts of the Great Basin. This jet will provide the focus for fire weather concerns today, with these being over northwest Nevada and in the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon. In northwest Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts of 20-25 mph with afternoon mixing. Fuels in the area are relatively dry. Therefore, have maintained the Elevated area in this outlook, though brief, localized Critical conditions are possible. In the Columbia Valley, RH is expected to be 10-20% with gusts to 20-25 mph and at least modestly dry fuels, so have kept the Elevated area here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible this afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and late tonight from southern Kansas into central/northeast Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/AR this afternoon through tonight... Convection is ongoing this morning in several clusters from southeast KS into central and eastern OK. The KS cluster had the better defined cold pool and MCV this morning, but has weakened while moving into the areas of rain-cooled air in the immediate wake of the OK convection. The environment downstream into AR could support some continuation of the eastern OK storms that have intensified recently, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail with multicell clusters. The convectively-enhanced midlevel trough will remain over eastern KS into tonight, when a southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop as the low levels recover in the wake of this morning's storms. Related increases in low-level warm advection will support new thunderstorm development tonight in roughly the same areas being impacted by the weakening storms this morning, and an MCS could evolve in this warm advection zone overnight. An environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, large CAPE, and some enhancement to low-midlevel vertical shear will favor the potential for large hail, severe outflow gusts and a low chance for a couple of tornadoes. ...MT/central High Plains late this afternoon into late evening... Subtle height rises are expected over the High Plains and MT, with the stronger mid-upper flow confined mostly to MT. Forcing for ascent will likewise be relatively weak, with some upslope flow component along and east of a lee trough. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected east/northeast of the higher terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO, and potentially along the baroclinic zone across central MT. A few supercells will be possible with large hail from MT into eastern WY, though storms with southward extent will have more of a threat for severe outflow gusts based on a tendency to grow upscale on merging outflow in an environment with steep lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear that will be close to the lower margins for sustained supercells. There will be some potential for a cluster or two to persist overnight while spreading eastward over the High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians this afternoon... Along and south of a stalled front from southern DE into northern MD/VA, surface heating is ongoing in cloud breaks. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s with 72-74 F dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Modest enhancement to vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt) with subtle perturbations crossing the Appalachians could allow for some clustering of storms with the potential for isolated wind damage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southwest into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, immediately east of the slowly weakening midlevel trough over KY/TN. Moderate buoyancy, DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and roughly 30 kt midlevel flow could be sufficient for isolated downbursts with associated wind damage. ..Thompson/Halbert.. 06/14/2025 Read more

MD 1283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern Kansas...north central and northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141233Z - 141430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe wind gusts may continue with thunderstorm outflow overspreading the central Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity during the next couple of hours. But this seems likely to diminish, as thunderstorms begin to weaken, while approaching the Greater Tulsa vicinity toward mid to late morning. DISCUSSION...The more intense thunderstorm development is being maintained above the stronger leading edge of the consolidated convective cold pool, now east and southeast of the Great Bend and Medicine Lodge KS vicinities, where 2 hourly surface pressure rises as high as 3+ mb have recently been observed. A swath of rear inflow on the order of 40-60+ kt has been evident in radar data, mostly in the 2-5 km AGL layer, but measured surface gusts appear to have mostly remained below severe limits. This has been propagating southeastward around 30 kt, and could approach the Tulsa OK vicinity by 15-16Z. However, due to the potential stabilizing impacts of downstream convection on the southeasterly updraft inflow, it remains unclear how much longer vigorous convective development will be maintained. As this weakens, the risk for strong to severe wind gusts is likely to subsequently diminish as well. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 36619853 36859924 37009833 37589793 38219782 38219673 37389545 36589574 36069685 36419779 36619853 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more