Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Southern Nevada, Southwestern Utah and far Northwestern Arizona... Modest mid-level flow associated with a progressive upper-level trough will move into the Great Basin and Southwest Monday. A very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will support low teens to single digit relative humidity values across the region. A corridor of 20-30 mph winds are most likely from southern Nevada into south-central Utah where very low daytime humidity will support Critical fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Columbia Basin... The upper-level short wave translating through the Pacific Northwest Monday will contribute to enhanced downslope winds particularly across the western portions of the Columbia Basin. West winds of around 15 mph combined with relative humidity in the 15-25 percent range will result in elevated fire weather concerns for central Washington state and Columbia River Gorge where ongoing fire activity remains. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... During the day on Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse California and into the Great Basin, and the surface mass response to this feature will tighten the sea-level pressure gradient across the area, resulting in strong surface winds. With seasonably strong vertical mixing, RH in the Great Basin and Four Corners region is expected to be around 5-15%. The best overlap of windy conditions and dry fuels is expected to be across parts of southeast Nevada, southwest Utah, and far northwest Arizona, where Critical highlights have been added. In this area, winds are expected to be near 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph underneath the core of the mid-level jet associated with the shortwave trough. Surrounding that Critical area, winds may be weaker and fuels less receptive to fire spread. However, this still warrants an Elevated area across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Southern Nevada, Southwestern Utah and far Northwestern Arizona... Modest mid-level flow associated with a progressive upper-level trough will move into the Great Basin and Southwest Monday. A very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will support low teens to single digit relative humidity values across the region. A corridor of 20-30 mph winds are most likely from southern Nevada into south-central Utah where very low daytime humidity will support Critical fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Columbia Basin... The upper-level short wave translating through the Pacific Northwest Monday will contribute to enhanced downslope winds particularly across the western portions of the Columbia Basin. West winds of around 15 mph combined with relative humidity in the 15-25 percent range will result in elevated fire weather concerns for central Washington state and Columbia River Gorge where ongoing fire activity remains. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... During the day on Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse California and into the Great Basin, and the surface mass response to this feature will tighten the sea-level pressure gradient across the area, resulting in strong surface winds. With seasonably strong vertical mixing, RH in the Great Basin and Four Corners region is expected to be around 5-15%. The best overlap of windy conditions and dry fuels is expected to be across parts of southeast Nevada, southwest Utah, and far northwest Arizona, where Critical highlights have been added. In this area, winds are expected to be near 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph underneath the core of the mid-level jet associated with the shortwave trough. Surrounding that Critical area, winds may be weaker and fuels less receptive to fire spread. However, this still warrants an Elevated area across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Southern Nevada, Southwestern Utah and far Northwestern Arizona... Modest mid-level flow associated with a progressive upper-level trough will move into the Great Basin and Southwest Monday. A very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will support low teens to single digit relative humidity values across the region. A corridor of 20-30 mph winds are most likely from southern Nevada into south-central Utah where very low daytime humidity will support Critical fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Columbia Basin... The upper-level short wave translating through the Pacific Northwest Monday will contribute to enhanced downslope winds particularly across the western portions of the Columbia Basin. West winds of around 15 mph combined with relative humidity in the 15-25 percent range will result in elevated fire weather concerns for central Washington state and Columbia River Gorge where ongoing fire activity remains. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... During the day on Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse California and into the Great Basin, and the surface mass response to this feature will tighten the sea-level pressure gradient across the area, resulting in strong surface winds. With seasonably strong vertical mixing, RH in the Great Basin and Four Corners region is expected to be around 5-15%. The best overlap of windy conditions and dry fuels is expected to be across parts of southeast Nevada, southwest Utah, and far northwest Arizona, where Critical highlights have been added. In this area, winds are expected to be near 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph underneath the core of the mid-level jet associated with the shortwave trough. Surrounding that Critical area, winds may be weaker and fuels less receptive to fire spread. However, this still warrants an Elevated area across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Southern Nevada, Southwestern Utah and far Northwestern Arizona... Modest mid-level flow associated with a progressive upper-level trough will move into the Great Basin and Southwest Monday. A very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will support low teens to single digit relative humidity values across the region. A corridor of 20-30 mph winds are most likely from southern Nevada into south-central Utah where very low daytime humidity will support Critical fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Columbia Basin... The upper-level short wave translating through the Pacific Northwest Monday will contribute to enhanced downslope winds particularly across the western portions of the Columbia Basin. West winds of around 15 mph combined with relative humidity in the 15-25 percent range will result in elevated fire weather concerns for central Washington state and Columbia River Gorge where ongoing fire activity remains. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... During the day on Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse California and into the Great Basin, and the surface mass response to this feature will tighten the sea-level pressure gradient across the area, resulting in strong surface winds. With seasonably strong vertical mixing, RH in the Great Basin and Four Corners region is expected to be around 5-15%. The best overlap of windy conditions and dry fuels is expected to be across parts of southeast Nevada, southwest Utah, and far northwest Arizona, where Critical highlights have been added. In this area, winds are expected to be near 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph underneath the core of the mid-level jet associated with the shortwave trough. Surrounding that Critical area, winds may be weaker and fuels less receptive to fire spread. However, this still warrants an Elevated area across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the upper Great Lakes, with a cold front from parts of lower MI extending southwestward into KS. Meanwhile, a larger/low-amplitude trough will continue moving across the Rockies and to the high Plans by 00Z. Low pressure forecast to develop over the TX/OK Panhandles, with a dryline extending southward into northwest TX. A large area of strong instability will exist over much of KS, MO, OK and AR, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg possible, supporting significant damaging winds, locally significant hail and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Plains... Indications are that an MCS or remnants will affect NE into northern or eastern KS early on Tuesday. Given strong destabilization east of this potential activity, a damaging wind risk could persist into parts of IA and MO. Later in the day, the air mass south and west of any such convective system (or residual outflow) will become very unstable. While capping will limit southward development, over OK and the Panhandles, hot temperatures and southwest flow across those regions will combine with mid 70s F dewpoints over KS yielding late afternoon and evening storms. Slow-moving supercells will be possible initially, especially near any old outflows where SRH will be maximized. Both tornadoes and very large hail will be possible. Otherwise, an increasing southwest low-level jet to 50 kt will support a severe MCS across KS and perhaps into western MO late. Damaging and potentially destructive wind gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

MD 1300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Southwest into Southeast Virginia...far northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151723Z - 151930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms may produce wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two. The tornado threat will be maximized near a lifting warm front. A watch is not currently expected this afternoon, though trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level disturbance moving into the Mid-Atlantic. Signs of synoptic ascent are also evident on visible satellite. A storm in Franklin County, VA, recently has developed and has shown some signs of at least weak low-level rotation on KFCX velocity data. This storm is near a warm front where low-level hodographs will be modestly enlarged with the more easterly surface winds. With the approaching ascent, additional storms are possible this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds are likely the primary threat, though a tornado or two could also occur with storms that favorably interact with the warm frontal zone. Given weak mid-level lapse rates, diffuse synoptic lift, and marginal deep-layer and low-level shear, storm coverage and intensity will not likely warrant a watch this afternoon. However, convective trends near the warm front will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36327988 36648020 36808030 37238005 37377975 37857842 37557689 37037659 36647684 36317730 36327844 36307979 36327988 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more