Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will likely support a continued swath of elevated convection. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist-adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated. Across south TX, confidence is below average in the southward extent of thunder potential. Guidance spread increases with the latitudinal placement of the shortwave trough as it begins to phase with a separate northern-stream shortwave trough amplifying from Alberta into the northern Great Plains. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will likely support a continued swath of elevated convection. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist-adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated. Across south TX, confidence is below average in the southward extent of thunder potential. Guidance spread increases with the latitudinal placement of the shortwave trough as it begins to phase with a separate northern-stream shortwave trough amplifying from Alberta into the northern Great Plains. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will likely support a continued swath of elevated convection. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist-adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated. Across south TX, confidence is below average in the southward extent of thunder potential. Guidance spread increases with the latitudinal placement of the shortwave trough as it begins to phase with a separate northern-stream shortwave trough amplifying from Alberta into the northern Great Plains. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and West TX... A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1 will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. ...Far South FL and Deep South TX... A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a low-probability thunder threat. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and West TX... A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1 will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. ...Far South FL and Deep South TX... A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a low-probability thunder threat. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and West TX... A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1 will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. ...Far South FL and Deep South TX... A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a low-probability thunder threat. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and West TX... A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1 will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. ...Far South FL and Deep South TX... A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a low-probability thunder threat. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and West TX... A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1 will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. ...Far South FL and Deep South TX... A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a low-probability thunder threat. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low and an associated trough, will move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest today. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the south-central U.S. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system, may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere, a moist airmass will be in place across south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms could develop today as surface temperatures warm. No severe threat is expected in these two areas, and no thunderstorms are forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low and an associated trough, will move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest today. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the south-central U.S. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system, may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere, a moist airmass will be in place across south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms could develop today as surface temperatures warm. No severe threat is expected in these two areas, and no thunderstorms are forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/13/2023 Read more