Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023 Read more