Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and West TX... A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1 will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. ...Far South FL and Deep South TX... A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a low-probability thunder threat. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and West TX... A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1 will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. ...Far South FL and Deep South TX... A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a low-probability thunder threat. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low and an associated trough, will move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest today. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the south-central U.S. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system, may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere, a moist airmass will be in place across south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms could develop today as surface temperatures warm. No severe threat is expected in these two areas, and no thunderstorms are forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low and an associated trough, will move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest today. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the south-central U.S. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system, may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere, a moist airmass will be in place across south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms could develop today as surface temperatures warm. No severe threat is expected in these two areas, and no thunderstorms are forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low and an associated trough, will move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest today. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the south-central U.S. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system, may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere, a moist airmass will be in place across south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms could develop today as surface temperatures warm. No severe threat is expected in these two areas, and no thunderstorms are forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low and an associated trough, will move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest today. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the south-central U.S. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system, may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere, a moist airmass will be in place across south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms could develop today as surface temperatures warm. No severe threat is expected in these two areas, and no thunderstorms are forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low and an associated trough, will move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest today. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the south-central U.S. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching system, may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere, a moist airmass will be in place across south Florida, where isolated thunderstorms could develop today as surface temperatures warm. No severe threat is expected in these two areas, and no thunderstorms are forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest this evening, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will strengthen across west Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet, along with large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, will make isolated thunderstorm development possible late this evening into tonight. No severe threat is forecast, and thunderstorms are not expected over the remainder of the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest this evening, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will strengthen across west Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet, along with large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, will make isolated thunderstorm development possible late this evening into tonight. No severe threat is forecast, and thunderstorms are not expected over the remainder of the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 12/13/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 12 23:46:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 12 23:46:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather potential continues to appear limited for the duration of the extended period. Recent surface observations show a strengthening surface high over the central Plains. This feature will continue to amplify over the coming day as it migrates into the eastern third of the country. Latest water-vapor imagery also depicts an upper disturbance drifting southeast from the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. This feature will introduce widespread rain chances across the southern High Plains to the Southeast over the mid to late week period. The combination of weak winds in proximity to the surface high and cool/wet conditions should limit most fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather potential continues to appear limited for the duration of the extended period. Recent surface observations show a strengthening surface high over the central Plains. This feature will continue to amplify over the coming day as it migrates into the eastern third of the country. Latest water-vapor imagery also depicts an upper disturbance drifting southeast from the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. This feature will introduce widespread rain chances across the southern High Plains to the Southeast over the mid to late week period. The combination of weak winds in proximity to the surface high and cool/wet conditions should limit most fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather potential continues to appear limited for the duration of the extended period. Recent surface observations show a strengthening surface high over the central Plains. This feature will continue to amplify over the coming day as it migrates into the eastern third of the country. Latest water-vapor imagery also depicts an upper disturbance drifting southeast from the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. This feature will introduce widespread rain chances across the southern High Plains to the Southeast over the mid to late week period. The combination of weak winds in proximity to the surface high and cool/wet conditions should limit most fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather potential continues to appear limited for the duration of the extended period. Recent surface observations show a strengthening surface high over the central Plains. This feature will continue to amplify over the coming day as it migrates into the eastern third of the country. Latest water-vapor imagery also depicts an upper disturbance drifting southeast from the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. This feature will introduce widespread rain chances across the southern High Plains to the Southeast over the mid to late week period. The combination of weak winds in proximity to the surface high and cool/wet conditions should limit most fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather potential continues to appear limited for the duration of the extended period. Recent surface observations show a strengthening surface high over the central Plains. This feature will continue to amplify over the coming day as it migrates into the eastern third of the country. Latest water-vapor imagery also depicts an upper disturbance drifting southeast from the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. This feature will introduce widespread rain chances across the southern High Plains to the Southeast over the mid to late week period. The combination of weak winds in proximity to the surface high and cool/wet conditions should limit most fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather potential continues to appear limited for the duration of the extended period. Recent surface observations show a strengthening surface high over the central Plains. This feature will continue to amplify over the coming day as it migrates into the eastern third of the country. Latest water-vapor imagery also depicts an upper disturbance drifting southeast from the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. This feature will introduce widespread rain chances across the southern High Plains to the Southeast over the mid to late week period. The combination of weak winds in proximity to the surface high and cool/wet conditions should limit most fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through daybreak Wednesday. ...20Z Update... Forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of very weak CAPE across the Texas South Plains vicinity tonight will be largely rooted near or above 700 mb. The extent of any potential for warm advection driven convection to produce lightning remains unclear. However, the categorical thunderstorm line (10 percent probability) has been adjusted somewhat, to focus where latest model output suggests that weak mid-level ascent and slightly cooler mid-level temperatures might contribute to thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through daybreak Wednesday. ...20Z Update... Forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of very weak CAPE across the Texas South Plains vicinity tonight will be largely rooted near or above 700 mb. The extent of any potential for warm advection driven convection to produce lightning remains unclear. However, the categorical thunderstorm line (10 percent probability) has been adjusted somewhat, to focus where latest model output suggests that weak mid-level ascent and slightly cooler mid-level temperatures might contribute to thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through daybreak Wednesday. ...20Z Update... Forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of very weak CAPE across the Texas South Plains vicinity tonight will be largely rooted near or above 700 mb. The extent of any potential for warm advection driven convection to produce lightning remains unclear. However, the categorical thunderstorm line (10 percent probability) has been adjusted somewhat, to focus where latest model output suggests that weak mid-level ascent and slightly cooler mid-level temperatures might contribute to thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. Read more