Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weak upper low is forecast to remain centered over northwestern Mexico and southern AZ on Saturday. Modest low-level moisture should be in place across parts of the Southwest into the southern Plains. Terrain driven circulations should aid in isolated to scattered convective development Saturday afternoon across much of AZ/NM into southern UT/CO. Additional thunderstorms may spread from northern Mexico into parts of far west TX through Saturday night. Anemic deep-layer shear across these areas will likely hinder updraft organization and limit severe thunderstorm potential. Surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore low-level trajectories over much of the Gulf and East Coast limiting thunderstorm chances. One exception may be across parts of south FL and the Keys, where greater low-level moisture is forecast along/south of a cold front. ..Gleason.. 10/07/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fuels are moist across much of the western CONUS except for some spotty drier fuels in the northern Sierra into southeast Oregon. However, winds will be light across this region. A larger region of critically dry fuels is present across much of the central and southern Plains into portions of the Gulf Coast. Winds will also be mostly light across this region and therefore, no fire weather concerns are anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Northern New England/Maine... A cyclone will continue to deepen over Quebec with a cold front sweeping eastward across northern New England/Maine by early evening. The front-preceding warm sector is not overly moist (upper 40s to low 50s F surface dewpoints) with scattered to locally broken cloud cover. However, some additional warming will allow for the development of a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE, which will support an increase and gradual intensification of low-topped convection near the front this afternoon. A few of these thunderstorms could produce gusty winds (perhaps ~40 mph), although severe-caliber storms/wind gusts are not currently expected. ...Southwest Deserts... On the northern periphery of an upper low centered near Sonora, modest destabilization is expected this afternoon across interior southern California and roughly the southern half of Arizona. Vertical shear will be weak, but a few pulse-type storms could produce gusty winds/small hail from mid-afternoon until early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/07/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 6 17:50:06 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 6 17:50:06 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop most of the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday. Within this larger-scale flow, a positively tilted shortwave trough will pivot across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over Quebec will lift north/northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will push east across the Northeast, while the southern extent of the front develops southward across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure will develop south and east across much of the central and eastern CONUS behind the cold front. Ahead of the front, limited boundary-layer moisture and weak instability will limit severe potential, though isolated general thunderstorms are possible across parts of New England. Further west, an upper low will persist over the Gulf of California/northwest Mexico, maintaining midlevel moisture across the southwestern U.S. Cool midlevel temperatures will aid in modest destabilization, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will once again be possible during the afternoon/evening across the Southwest. Weak vertical shear and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight across the continental United States. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow will exist from the northern/central Plains eastward to the mid-Atlantic/northeast U.S. through tonight. Areas of larger-scale ascent associated with embedded shortwave troughs, and a southeast-moving cold front, will affect portions of the central/northern Plains, Great Lakes and New England. Buoyancy will be minimal in these areas, though sufficient for a few thunderstorms. A weak upper low over AZ/NM will drift southwest today. Surfaced-based instability on the order of a few hundred J/kg this afternoon will support scattered thunderstorms. An inverted surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will move towards the south Texas coast today. Surface dew points in the upper 60s will contribute to sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorm development. Severe weather is not anticipated across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Bunting/Thornton.. 10/06/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes; fire weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southward across the Plains/MS Valleys amid deep-layer northwesterly flow aloft today. Given cooler or wetter conditions expected across the central and western U.S., wildfire spread threats (if any exist) should be very brief and localized, confined to where fuels are most receptive to fire spread, namely the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 5 17:44:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 5 17:44:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper trough will envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. Several shortwave troughs embedded within this larger-scale system will pivot across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. While some enhancement to westerly midlevel flow will accompany these shortwave troughs, vertical shear will generally remain weak. At the surface, low pressure will develop over southern Quebec and the Northeast. A cold front associated with the low will develop south/southeast across the central Plains, mid/upper MS Valley and OH Valley vicinity through the period. Cooler midlevel temperatures will support modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to weak instability. However, a seasonally dry airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front across much of the Plains/Midwest/Northeast, limiting stronger destabilization. A few instances of thunderstorms will still be possible ahead of the front across parts of NE, the Lake Michigan vicinity and parts of New England, though severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. Diurnal thunderstorm activity is also expected again across portions of the Southwest where steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak instability amid abundant midlevel moisture. Weak vertical shear and modest instability will limit severe potential here as well. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Dry conditions (RH values below 30%) are possible over much of the mid Mississippi Valley, but the lack of stronger winds will keep any fire weather concerns localized. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will become prevalent across the central U.S. today as a surface cold front sags southward across the Plains. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions may precede the cold front, with wildfire-spread potential remaining localized and limited overall. The best chance for any brief, localized wildfire concerns would likely be over the central and southern Plains states, where fuels are most receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TSTM LINES ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the southwestern U.S, the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, and in the vicinity of southern New England. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ...Synopsis/Forecast... Thunderstorms are expected today into tonight including across the southern Rockies/west Texas in proximity to an upper low, in addition to parts of the Midwest related to an east/southeastward-moving shortwave trough from Iowa into northern Illinois. While a couple of strong thunderstorms could occur this afternoon in areas such as southeast New Mexico/far west Texas and/or south-central Iowa, organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely owing to modest buoyancy and relatively weak vertical shear. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 10/05/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 4 17:41:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 4 17:41:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered afternoon storms are most likely across parts of New Mexico and Arizona, and portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...AZ/NM... A weak shortwave trough will be in place over the southern Rockies vicinity on Wednesday, with a more amplified upper ridge oriented across CA and the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer flow will remain weak, resulting in poor vertical shear. Weak destabilization will be driven by cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates atop modest surface heating. Scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon, though severe potential will be negated by weak shear/instability. ...Upper MS Valley Vicinity... Isolated thunderstorm are expected during the afternoon/early evening as a mid/upper shortwave trough and surface cold front migrate across the region. An antecedent dry airmass over the Midwest will preclude better-quality boundary-layer moisture ahead of the surface front. This will limit instability despite cool midlevel temperatures and modest lapse rates. Vertical shear also will remain modest, with effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt forecast. A couple stronger cells could produce gusty winds and perhaps small hail, though severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery depicts a mid/upper-level trough tracking slowly eastward across the northern/central Plains, preceded by a belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow and modest midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent. An attendant weak cold front will shift eastward from the central Plains into the Upper/Middle MS Valley through the period. Farther south, a convectively enhanced, low-latitude midlevel impulse will continue drifting east-southeastward across southern AZ, with related large-scale ascent overspreading southeastern AZ into western NM. ...Central Plains... Along/behind the weak cold front/wind shift and ongoing band of shallow frontal convection, filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a plume of recycled boundary-layer moisture (lower/middle 50s dewpoints) beneath cold midlevel temperatures will support isolated to widely scattered convective development this afternoon into the evening. Over parts of NE, the enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow should yield 25-35 kt of effective shear, which coupled with marginal surface-based instability could favor a loosely organized cluster or two capable of locally strong gusts and/or small hail. ...Desert Southwest... Differential heating along the edges of ongoing shallow convection and cloud debris across southeastern AZ coupled with orographic circulations should result in additional surface-based convective development over the area this afternoon -- aided by large-scale ascent ahead of the midlevel cyclonic impulse. While generally weak deep-layer flow/shear should limit convective organization/longevity, steep midlevel lapse rates atop marginal low-level moisture could support a few strong updrafts capable of locally strong gusts and/or marginal hail. This will especially be the case for any multicell clusters that intercept steep low-level lapse rates over southeastern AZ and southwestern NM where stronger diurnal heating is expected. ..Weinman/Thornton/Thompson.. 10/04/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Lyons.. 10/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the northern Plains while a surface cold front sags southward across the central Plains today. While brief bouts of locally dry and breezy conditions may occur ahead of the front around afternoon peak heating, widespread significant wildfire-spread potential should remain limited, with no fire weather highlights introduced. Localized wildfire-spread potential may also exist across the central Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley given the presence of a dry low-level airmass overlapping modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 3 17:44:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 3 17:44:02 UTC 2022.