Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and a tornado risk are possible, mainly across parts of eastern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Tennessee through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee/Florida Panhandle... An extensive north/south-oriented broken squall line continues to move eastward from near the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers and across western Tennessee and eastern Mississippi as of midday, largely coincident with a cold front. Additional low-level moistening will continue to occur within the warm sector, with the highest moisture content (60s and some lower 70s F surface dewpoints) across eastern Mississippi into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle/southwest Georgia. Much of this corridor will also coincide with a strong belt of very strong mid-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds. The potential for damaging winds, at least on isolated basis, is expected to increase through the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/moistens. Given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH, a tornado risk will also exist. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1899. By late evening and overnight, the severe threat is expected to gradually diminish as the primary shortwave trough and enhanced low-level flow pass north of the weakly unstable warm sector that remains closer to the Gulf coast. Even so, a low-end wind damage and tornado threat may linger overnight across southeast Alabama, Florida Panhandle, into southwest Georgia. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/25/2022 Read more

MD 1899 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Areas affected...much of eastern Mississippi into western and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251621Z - 251845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to gradually increase in intensity along a cold front, with sporadic wind damage and couple tornadoes possible. DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms currently extends from the MO Bootheel into western TN, and due south across the middle of MS. While northern parts of this line are surging quickly northeastward coincident with the shortwave trough, southern portions of the line are moving slower toward the east. Recently, lightning has been observed over central MS where MLCAPE remains below 1000 J/kg. Surface observations show warming over southern MS with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 F, and this degree of warming may be needed for surface-based inflow parcels initially. With time, a few cells along the front may become severe, with sections of QLCS possible. Large scale lift is more favorable farther north, but low-level convergence along the front should be enough to initiate new storms later today given robust moisture. Large looping hodographs with 0-1 SRH to 300 m2/s2 will clearly favor rotation, with a conditional threat of brief tornadoes and corridors of damaging winds. The slow eastward movement of the line, coupled with diurnal considerations, do appear favorable for a discrete supercell or two later this afternoon, most notably where southern portions of the line interact with the stronger MLCAPE. Though models differ on storm coverage, any discrete supercells in this high shear environment could result in an isolated strong tornado within a relatively narrow zone. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32598955 33388937 34118920 34688917 35088880 35118802 35058731 34808696 34318691 33418712 32228754 31758798 31378859 31358931 31368957 31908959 32598955 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 24 18:06:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South across the Southeast States on Tuesday. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, though a tornado or two also will be possible. ...Synopsis... A compact and potent mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will bring intense midlevel flow to portions of the lower MS Valley and the Mid-South, with 80+ kt southwesterly flow forecast at 500 mb. In the low levels, a 50 kt southerly low-level jet will develop east/northeast from the lower MS Valley toward Middle TN through early evening. A surface low over northwest AR Tuesday morning will track northeast through the period, becoming positioned over lower MI by Wednesday morning. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the Lower MS, TN and OH Valley vicinity, extending from eastern IN/western OH into eastern TN/western GA and the middle FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the cold front across portions of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South and Southeast states. ...Lower MS Valley/Mid-South into MS/AL... Strong warm advection will support a wedge of 60s F dewpoints as far north as Middle TN to develop ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. Boundary-layer moisture will diminish with northward extent into the Ohio Valley/Midwest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected. Potential showers and cloud cover across the warm sector will limit stronger heating, and midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. This will preclude stronger destabilization, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range anticipated (with highest values further south). Nevertheless, the region will be under the influence for strong vertical shear and organized line segments are expected. The Marginal risk was expanded into parts of northeast AR/southeast MO near the surface low where ongoing thunderstorms could pose a threat for strong gusts and perhaps small hail for a few hours during the morning. Otherwise, severe potential should gradually increase through the morning/early afternoon as a line of showers and thunderstorms near the MS River shifts east across MS/western TN. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity along the strongly forced line of convection. However, enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs indicative of the rapidly increasing flow with height accompanying this system will support both mesovortex formation along line segments and rotating updrafts within any semi-discrete cells that can develop. A corridor of relative higher tornado potential (indicated by a 5 percent tornado probability) may develop where stronger low-level instability will overlap with favorable vertical shear across parts of MS/AL. ..Leitman.. 10/24/2022 Read more

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Areas affected...parts of the South Plains and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241738Z - 242015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form this afternoon from South Plains into far southwest Oklahoma, with a few storms producing severe gusts or hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues near an east-west oriented front from the Lubbock area into northwest TX, with increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to form. While moisture is limited with low 50s F dewpoints, deep-layer lapse rates will continue to steepen as a strong vorticity maximum aloft moves east out of NM. The initial focus for development will be near the Lubbock area, near the surface wave along the stationary front. Visible imagery also shows CU forming along the surging cold front as well north of the Midland area. Given strengthening deep-layer lift, and a surface focus, scattered storms appear likely over the next few hours. The surging cold front will favor linear modes, though very strong deep-layer shear oriented across this boundary may lead to QLCS structures and/or cellular activity as well, producing hail. While a watch is not expected in the short term, trends will be monitored for expanding strong to severe storm coverage. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34460165 34990001 34969958 34669924 34359920 33859925 33019986 32260058 32180125 32290201 32670220 33120200 33950191 34460165 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... Widespread dry, occasionally breezy surface conditions should prevail across much of the Plains states tomorrow/Tuesday as a surface cyclone tracks eastward across the central MS Valley. While such conditions would necessitate Elevated highlights, the dampening of fuels by preceding rainfall suggests that fire-weather highlights are unwarranted this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and the middle/upper Texas Coast through tonight. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, although a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... A semi-organized but not overly intense squall line continues to progress eastward from near/east of I-35 across east-central Oklahoma and North Texas. Locally severe storms will remain a possibility with this convective line in the presence of strong/largely unidirectional deep-layer shear and modest lapse rates/buoyancy. Thinking remains that this regional severe threat this afternoon could remain a bit isolated/episodic across eastern Oklahoma/north Texas. A somewhat more organized/sustained severe risk should evolve by early evening, initially across central Texas and into eastern/south-central Texas tonight. This will be as the base of the southern Rockies upper trough ejects eastward and trends toward a more neutral tilt, with surface wave development/cyclogenesis expected from northwest Texas late this afternoon east-northeastward along the Red River vicinity and Ozarks late tonight. This scenario should allow for the southwest flank of the residual squall line/outflow to reinvigorate across central/east-central Texas by early evening, and for new development to occur near the east/southeastward-accelerating cold front tonight. Steady low-level moistening and modest cooling aloft could support upwards of 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE this evening across central/east Texas. Increasingly large/modestly curved hodographs may yield the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells ahead of or in the early developmental stages of the squall line, with evolving bowing segments otherwise likely. A couple of tornadoes may occur aside from possible wind damage. Given the large-scale trends and expected persistence of weak warm-sector buoyancy, at least some severe risk is expected to persist eastward through the late night/early Tuesday morning across far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana/possibly southern Arkansas, even if on just an isolated/marginal basis overnight. ...Northwest Texas/Low Rolling Plains... A spatially narrow/residual corridor of low-level moisture and buoyancy may be sufficient for the development of some low-topped stronger storms late this afternoon/early evening as lapse rates steepen. A few instances of strong thunderstorm winds and/or hail could occur. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/24/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous outlook. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will progress across the Plains states today, preceded by widespread showers and thunderstorms. Appreciable rainfall accumulations should limit significant, widespread wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 23 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 23 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX...EAST TX/FAR WESTERN LA...AND MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas eastward to the Arklatex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and middle/upper Texas Coast Monday evening and overnight. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, though a tornado or two is also possible. ...Synopsis... A complex upper pattern evolution is anticipated on Monday as a large-scale upper trough gradually moves eastward across the Plains. Two shortwave troughs embedded within the larger-scale trough will focus severe thunderstorm potential on Monday. The first shortwave trough will be located over the northern Plains early in the period, and the other over the Southwest. The northern Plains shortwave is expected to quickly lift northeast during the morning, while the Southwest shortwave moves eastward from the Four Corners and into the southern Plains during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Another weak shortwave impulse over northern Mexico will precede the Southwest shortwave across TX, while the remnants of Hurricane Roslyn move quickly northeastward along the TX Coast into the Lower MS Valley. An occluded surface low will be located over eastern ND Monday morning, with an occluded front extending southeastward to a triple point over central MN. A cold front will then extend southwestward from this triple point through the Lower MO Valley into central OK. The front is expected to progress gradually eastward throughout day, with the exception being the southern extent of the front in TX, which will only make minor eastward progress until Monday evening when stronger surface cyclogenesis occurs along the Red River. This surface low will then shift east/northeast into AR overnight, as the shortwave upper trough ejects eastward and the front surges eastward toward the Sabine Valley and TX coast. ...Northwest MN... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning near the surface low and along the northeastward advancing front. Forecast guidance suggest MLCAPE as high as 750 J/kg will be present amid strong vertical shear. Fast storm motion coupled with strong low/mid-level flow and modest instability could support isolated strong gusts for a couple hours Monday morning before convection lifts north into Manitoba/western Ontario. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from southeast KS across central OK and into southwest TX. Buoyancy will be tempered by relatively warm mid-level temperatures but moderate mid-level flow with a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet could still result in a few updrafts capable of hail and/or strong downdrafts. The front will progress eastward across KS/MO/OK during through the afternoon/evening, but become more diffuse across TX as a surface low develops across western North TX during the afternoon. The surface low should develop eastward along the Red River and into AR during the evening and overnight hours, allowing the TX portion of the cold front to surge eastward while the upper shortwave trough ejects eastward into the Plains. This will support additional thunderstorm development along the front as large-scale ascent increases within a moist and moderately unstable airmass. Linear segments will support mainly damaging gusts. However, enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodograph suggest some tornado potential will exist near the front and surface low, where low-level vorticity will be maximized. ..Leitman.. 10/23/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, a strong western US trough will intensify further as an 80-90 kt mid-level jet ejects eastward across the southern and central Rockies over the Plains. The strong mid-level flow will aid in the development of a sub-990 mb lee low and very strong surface wind fields over much of the central US. With widespread drought across the Plains, the strong winds and dry/warm conditions will support widespread critical fire weather concerns. ...Central and southern Plains... As the strong area of low pressure continues to deepen and eject northeastward, low-level southwesterly pressure gradients will intensify over much of the Plains. A broad area of sustained 25-40 mph winds, with gusts upwards of 50 mph, will be possible through the afternoon. Coincident with diurnal heating, areas of low to critical RH (15-30%) are expected through the afternoon. RH will be lowest across the High Plains west of the lee trough, with values near or above 30% likely farther east. In addition, fuels remain highly receptive to fire spread due to ongoing drought over all of the Plains with ERCs in the 90th+ percentile. The overlap of highly receptive fuels, strong winds and lower RH lends high confidence to sustained elevated and some critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A few hours of localized extremely critical conditions will also be possible mainly across portions of western KS and far eastern CO where the strongest winds are expected. While mid-level cloud cover may reduce afternoon mixing, strong downslope flow and warm temperatures may still support a few pockets of sub 10% RH and wind gusts greater than 50 mph. The favorable meteorological and fuel conditions may support rapid wind-driven fire spread. ...California... Along the backside of the trough, strong mid-level flow will support gusty surface winds through the Central Valley and coastal mountains. While fuels remain spotty, a few hours of lower humidity and gusty winds may support locally elevated fire weather conditions. Confidence remains too low to introduce areas of concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are possible from parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight. ...Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A prominent western states upper trough continues to evolve/amplify over the Rockies and Four Corners, with a strong mid/upper-level jet expected to develop northeastward from Arizona/New Mexico across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Lee-side cyclogenesis will continue to occur initially across the central Plains while transitioning northeastward toward the eastern Dakotas tonight as a cold front begins to accelerate eastward across the central Plains/Upper Midwest. Modest autumnal low-level moisture will continue to stream northward and become increasing established within the warm sector ahead of the cold front, and more so, the preceding dryline across the central/southern Plains, although mixing (and some possible surface dewpoint reduction) will also occur as the boundary layer warms through peak heating. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the combined cold front/dryline as early as late afternoon, but more so toward/after sunset. Any surface-based thunderstorms will have the potential for isolated severe hail and wind gusts, given supercell-favorable vertical shear and fast storm motion atop a residually well-mixed warm-sector boundary layer. An increasing low-level jet (50-70 kt after 00Z) will enlarge low-level hodographs, with 30-35 kt shear-vector magnitudes in the effective-inflow layer, and effective SRH potentially in the 300-500 m2/s2 range. ...West-central/northwest Texas to southwest Oklahoma... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight across this region, as the combined fronts overtake the dryline and impinge on increasing deep-layer moisture. Neither middle nor upper-level lapse rates are expected to be particularly steep. However, with increasing low-level moisture, and strengthening deep shear, an organizing band of convection may strengthen enough to produce a few embedded storms capable of isolated hail and/or wind gusts near severe limits. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 22 17:45:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 22 17:45:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Additional isolated severe thunderstorms may produce strong gusts and hail across parts of the southern Plains early Monday morning. ...Central Plains...Lower/Mid MO Valley...Upper Midwest... A strong large-scale upper trough will shift east from the western U.S. toward the Plains on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough within this larger-scale flow will focus thunderstorm potential across parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An intense 50-70 kt southwesterly 850-700 mb low-level jet oriented from the southern Plains to southwest IA during the afternoon will spread northeast toward the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity overnight. Surface cyclogenesis will occur as a low lifts north/northeast from NE toward northwest MN/northeast ND by Monday morning. Moderate southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states into the Upper Midwest, where an antecedent dry airmass will be in place early Sunday. Forecast guidance continues to vary regarding surface dewpoints, with differences of around 5-8 deg F by late afternoon/evening. There is also disparity in timing/progression of the surface cold front, lending to further uncertainty regarding where convective initiation will occur. Despite questionable moisture quality and frontal position, conditional severe potential will exist from central/eastern KS into MN, aided by strong large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting trough and contributing surface cold front, coupled with robust vertical shear. Given the expected intense background flow/low-level jet, strong gusts will be possible with even modest convection, but especially so with any clusters/line segments that may develop. ...Southern Plains... A southern stream shortwave moving across western Mexico will merge with the base of the large-scale trough approaching the southern Rockies. Increasing midlevel moisture and low-level warm advection ahead of the surface front draped across western TX will support late-period thunderstorm development across parts of northwest TX into southern OK. MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg coupled with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized updrafts. Isolated strong gusts and small hail could accompany this activity early Monday morning, and a Marginal risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 10/22/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Discussion... Significant amplification of an upper-level trough will occur over the Great Basin/Rockies through tonight. Despite limited autumnal moisture, ample forcing for ascent and steepening lapse rates will lead to isolated thunderstorms, particularly across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners states later this afternoon and evening. While some stronger convectively related wind gusts could occur, the potential for severe thunderstorms will remain low. Isolated thunderstorms will also remain possible today along the coastal Pacific Northwest, and could also occur late tonight across coastal North Carolina (but more so in the offshore Atlantic). ..Guyer/Dean.. 10/22/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z A few minor adjustments to the outlook in Oklahoma and western North Texas based on the latest guidance and Fridays fire activity. The forecast elsewhere remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 10/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening area of low pressure across the western US, strong southwesterly surface winds are expected across the Central and High Plains. Given the increase in winds, dry air mass, and receptive fuels, an area of Elevated fire weather conditions is expected on Saturday. ...Central and High Plains... Southwesterly winds around 15-20 mph along with afternoon minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of western Nebraska southward into eastern Colorado and southern Kansas/west-central Oklahoma. Fuels across the aforementioned region are receptive, with ERCs above the 95th percentile. Similar weather conditions can be expected across the Texas Panhandle, but recent rainfall has led to improvement in fuels and precludes the need for an Elevated area. ...Southern California and Southern Nevada... Recent model runs indicate that sustained winds could approach as high as 20-30 mph across portions of the low deserts of southern California and southern Nevada. Relative humidity will be marginal with a few stations near-critical briefly. Due to the localized threat area and lack of more robust fuels, an Elevated or Critical area was not supported. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Only minor changes to the ongoing forecast. While winds will be similar to Friday in the southern Plains, RH in parts of Oklahoma into Kansas could be a touch higher. Elevated conditions will be spotty in eastern Colorado. The greatest risk for sustained elevated conditions will be within terrain-favored regions near the Divide/foothills. Locally critical conditions are most probable in the Nebraska Panhandle. This area will be near the deepening surface cyclone and moderate mid-level winds. Such conditions still appear too brief for critical highlights. ..Wendt.. 10/21/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening trough across the Pacific Northwest, upper-level flow will increase across the western US with strengthening southwesterly surface gradients across the Central and High Plains. Gulf moisture will make a limited return across eastern Oklahoma and Nebraska, but remain largely within the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. A broad Elevated area has been introduced across portions of the Central and High Plains, where dry conditions will prevail along with strong gusty winds and receptive fuels. ...Central and High Plains... Southwest winds at 15-20 mph and minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent) are possible Saturday. This will support an Elevated delineation extending from portions of western Nebraska southward into eastern Colorado and southern Kansas/west-central Oklahoma. Winds may be marginal across portions of this region along with some potential for mid-level cloud cover in central Oklahoma. Fuels continue to be very dry, with ERCs above the 95 percentile, supporting the Elevated risk even with the potential for marginal winds (mainly across western Colorado and Kansas). ...Southern California and Nevada... Strong westerly downslope flow across portions of southern California and Nevada may lead to areas of elevated fire concern on Saturday. Due to the localized threat area and lack of more robust fuels, an Elevated area was not supported. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 21 18:10:02 UTC 2022.