Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 1 17:22:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper air pattern will amplify on Wednesday with a large-scale trough over the West and ridging into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will maintain dry and stable conditions over most of the central and eastern CONUS, with low-level moisture return occurring late in the period over southern Texas where it will remain capped. Elsewhere, weak easterly surface winds will maintain a moist air mass over Florida, and isolated weak convection will be possible during the day due to heating. However, lapse rates will remain poor with weak wind fields. Farther west, cooling temperatures aloft will result in weak instability over the Four Corners area, with a few lightning flashes possible. Isolated low-topped convection may also occur over the Pacific Northwest beneath very cold temperatures aloft. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough over Texas will continue east-northeastward and reach the Tennessee Valley tonight. Thunderstorm potential will continue to shift eastward from south Texas toward the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Well ahead of this trough, a small/narrow inland warm sector across coastal North Carolina may be conducive for a few thunderstorms. In the West, a large-scale trough will advance inland over the Pacific Northwest through tonight. A broad area of low-topped convection will overspread coastal areas within the post-frontal environment. Cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates will contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for isolated low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight across coastal Oregon/Washington and northern California. ..Guyer/Moore.. 11/01/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only major change was to expand Elevated highlights farther north into southwest North Dakota, where the latest guidance consensus depicts at least a few hours of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... A substantial large-scale trough preceded by deep/enhanced southwesterly flow will advance eastward across the western CONUS. At the same time, an attendant surface cyclone will evolve slowly eastward across MT, while lee troughing extends southward along the northern and central High Plains. As a result, 15-20 mph south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across parts of the Great Plains and central Rockies. Over the northern and central High Plains, efficient diurnal heating amid downslope warming/drying will favor 15-20 percent minimum RH given limited low-level moisture return. As these dry/breezy conditions overspread increasingly receptive fuels, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions can be expected. Farther west, locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the Great Basin -- where dry/breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon. However, only marginally receptive fuels across the area cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 31 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 31 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and cold front over the OH Valley are forecast to move eastward through the mid Atlantic and offshore early in the forecast period. At the same time, a second low-amplitude wave is progged to move along the Gulf Coast within broad west/southwesterly flow over the eastern half of the CONUS. Post-frontal offshore flow is expected over much of the Atlantic Coast, though the cold front is forecast to stall across portions of south TX. To the west, a much stronger trough and front will continue to deepen/organize as they move onshore across the Pacific Coast. Strong mid-level flow will further deepen the trough as it quickly moves inland over the Great Basin and central Rockies into early Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the strong front across much of Coastal WA, OR and CA, though buoyancy will be weak. With thunderstorms mostly confined to coastal areas with marginal buoyancy, severe potential appears low over much of the CONUS. ...South TX... Scattered thunderstorms are expected early in the period near and along the stalled front across coastal south TX given weak isentropic ascent and modest upper-level forcing from the departing shortwave. While a few stronger storms are possible over southeast TX, the front is expected to push offshore into the Gulf of Mexico by mid day. With meager inland moisture return, modest and mostly elevated buoyancy should limit the severe threat. ...Coastal North Carolina... A few stronger storms are possible early in the day across portions of far eastern NC ahead of the fast moving surface front. While buoyancy is expected to remain modest (generally less than 500 J/kg), moderate background flow and strong frontal forcing may support a brief window for a damaging wind gust or two with loosely organized bands of storms. The front should quickly move offshore by the early afternoon limiting severe potential. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 10/31/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER TX GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and an isolated tornado may occur overnight along the Lower Rio Grande Valley and Lower Texas Coast. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave perturbations are evident in mid-morning water vapor imagery within a broad troughing regime across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. These features are expected to provide lift over the East Coast as well as southern TX/lower TX Gulf Coast where adequate low-level moisture and modest lapse rates will provide sufficient buoyancy for deep convection this evening and overnight. ...Lower Texas Gulf Coast... A more prominent shortwave over north-central Mexico will translate east through the day towards the lower TX Gulf coast. Pressure falls ahead of this feature will maintain onshore flow and continue to bolster boundary-layer moisture across southern TX. Lapse rates will slowly improve by the evening hours as temperatures cool aloft, which should yield MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage late this evening/overnight as lift ahead of the wave overspreads the unstable air mass. 50-60 knot flow aloft overlaid atop the easterly onshore flow regime will yield adequate deep-layer shear for a few organized cells as well as 0-1 km SRH values near 100 m2/s2, which is favorable for a brief/weak tornado. ...Carolina Piedmont... One of the embedded shortwaves over the Midwest/Great Lakes region will continue to lift to the northeast through the day. This will maintain a broad swath of 35-45 knot south/southwesterly mid-level flow along the East Coast. Weak isentropic ascent within this regime is evident in IR imagery in the form of weak convection embedded with stratiform rain across the southern Appalachians. To the east of this activity, partly cloudy skies over northern SC into central NC have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s. These temperatures, combined with a modest influx of marine moisture (dewpoints in the low/mid 60s), should be adequate to support SBCAPE values near 500 J/kg by late afternoon/early evening. While a few cells capable of locally strong winds are possible from north-central SC into central NC, weak forcing for ascent and uncertainties pertaining to destabilization preclude introducing severe probabilities. ..Moore/Grams.. 10/31/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly midlevel flow over the northern CONUS will favor breezy surface winds across the northern High Plains. However, limited RH reductions and marginal fuels across this region should generally limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 30 17:55:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 30 17:55:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Monday. ...Carolinas... An upper trough/low will advance eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley on Monday, eventually reaching the western Mid-Atlantic Monday night. Low-level moisture should return northward across much of the Carolinas ahead of a cold front through the day. But, widespread cloudiness and poor lapse rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak instability Monday afternoon. While deep-layer shear over much of the Carolinas appears sufficient for organized updrafts, the marginal thermodynamic environment is expected to limit potential for organized severe thunderstorms across the Carolinas Monday afternoon/evening. ...Big Bend Region of West Texas... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move across northern Mexico and west TX on Monday. Modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds are forecast to be present over the Big Bend region of west TX Monday afternoon. Although low-level moisture should remain quite limited across this region, isolated thunderstorms may eventually develop over the higher terrain and spread eastward through Monday evening. Weak instability should limit the overall severe threat, but small hail and gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorm that can develop. ...Deep South Texas... As a shortwave trough approaches from the west, low-level moisture is expected to gradually increase across deep south TX, especially Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should develop across this region, and deep-layer shear is also forecast to strengthen late in the period. At this time, it appears that any convection that develops should remain elevated. While small hail could occur with the more robust updrafts, the thermodynamic environment currently appears too limited to support severe hail. ..Gleason.. 10/30/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 10/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will briefly build over northern CA, while surface high pressure remains centered over the northern Great Basin. This will support a continuation of dry offshore flow across southern CA, with modest upper-level wind support during the afternoon and evening. Locally enhanced fire-weather conditions can be expected here, especially across wind-prone mountains and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. However, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for fire-weather highlights. Farther east, a belt of enhanced westerly midlevel flow across the northern Rockies will favor surface lee troughing and dry/breezy conditions over the northern High Plains. While this could yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, fuels do not appear overly receptive to wildfire spread and the threat appears too brief for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low today. ...Synopsis... An upper low evident in water-vapor imagery over eastern MO will continue to migrate northeastward this afternoon as a secondary impulse, currently over the TX Panhandle, follows in its wake towards the mid-MS Valley. This upper flow regime will largely result in neutral height falls and weak synoptic ascent over the MS Valley/Southeast states. A plume of mid-level isentropic ascent will be maintained from the FL Panhandle northward into Middle TN ahead of a weak cold front. Although morning soundings from within this plume show poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal buoyancy, latest IR trends show a few isolated convective towers, suggesting that a few lightning flashes remain possible. Warming temperatures near 500 mb will likely diminish the lightning potential by mid/late afternoon from Middle TN northward, which may result in removal from thunder probabilities in subsequent updates. Further south along the Gulf Coast, forcing for ascent will remain weak as the main mid/upper-level lift remains displaced to the north. Partial clearing along the coast will likely allow for some destabilization favoring deeper, and perhaps more persistent, convection this afternoon and evening. However, the overall severe potential remains low given weak forcing and diminishing shear through the day. ..Moore/Grams.. 10/30/2022 Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0558 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 558 TORNADO LA MS CW 291725Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initially weakly rotating showers and thunderstorms should intensify this afternoon into early evening, as they slowly move northeast. Tornadoes and locally damaging winds are the primary threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Pine Belt MS to 60 miles southeast of New Orleans LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21020. ...Grams Read more

MD 1909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1909 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291711Z - 291815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon, tornado watch likely. DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows an increase in convective development across the region as broad mid-level ascent overspreads low-level warm/moist advection. Despite rich low-level moisture (surface dew point temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s F), instability remains rather marginal (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). Widespread cloud cover is limiting diabatic heating, thus limiting further destabilization. Nevertheless, effective deep-layer shear of 40-45 kt will help to organize the developing convection. Radar trends support this notion, with at least transient/weak mid-level rotation now evident in several cells. This trend is expected to continue into the afternoon, which may yield a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Thus, convective trends will be monitored for the issuance of a tornado watch this afternoon. ..Karstens/Grams.. 10/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29089093 30549116 31429085 31648955 30838869 29948845 29048904 29089093 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the Ozarks/mid MS Valley Sunday morning is forecast to advance over the Midwest and OH Valley while weakening through the day. A weak surface low should likewise develop northeastward across the Mid-South to the lower OH Valley through Sunday evening while gradually occluding. A cold front will sweep eastward across the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states through the period. Low-level moisture will attempt to return northward from the central Gulf Coast into the TN/OH Valleys ahead of this system. However, mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints should mostly remain confined to the FL Panhandle and parts of southern AL. Mainly elevated showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Sunday morning from the western FL Panhandle to the Mid-South/lower OH Valley, which along with widespread cloudiness should limit daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also expected to keep boundary-layer instability weak at best. While a strong thunderstorm or two may scrape along the coast of the FL Panhandle Sunday morning, diminishing large-scale ascent is anticipated across the warm sector through the day as the upper trough moves well north of this area and a southerly low-level jet focuses over the lower OH and TN Valleys. The poor thermodynamic environment should also hinder updraft intensity. All of these limiting factors should keep the overall severe thunderstorm potential low on Sunday. ..Gleason.. 10/29/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region into tonight. ...Central Gulf Coast... A closed mid-level low over the Ark-La-Tex will move north-northeast across the Ozarks through tomorrow morning. An associated 1012-mb surface cyclone over northwest LA will occlude as it drifts north into west-central AR and become poorly phased with the mid-level low. Despite the weakening nature of this synoptic wave, there will still be potential for severe storms in the warm sector across the Central Gulf Coast into tonight. A plume of upper 60s to low 70s across southeast LA and the MS coast will expand north into southern MS and southwest AL through this evening. Cloud breaks this morning, especially near the coast, has yielded surface temperatures already in the mid to upper 70s. This will support a persistent plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent, primarily related to the frontal circulation and low-level warm advection ahead of it, will aid in maintaining broken convection near the front that should intensify as cells slowly moves east from the Lower MS Valley into the southwest AL vicinity through tonight. Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature will favor the likelihood of a few embedded supercells with the deeper updrafts, particularly during the late afternoon and early evening. Given the moist profiles and poor mid-level lapse rates, the main concern will be the possibility of a few tornadoes as well as isolated damaging gusts. ..Grams/Karstens.. 10/29/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for details. ..Squitieri.. 10/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow will persist across the northern Rockies, favoring surface lee troughing and breezy surface winds over the northern and central Plains. However, a limited overlap of these winds and low RH should generally mitigate the fire-weather risk. Farther west, surface high pressure over the northern Great Basin will support continued offshore flow across southern CA. Dry/breezy conditions can be expected over the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, though these conditions appear too localized and brief for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more