Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 28 17:48:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 28 17:48:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts should be the main threats. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... An upper trough/low will move slowly from the ArkLaTex to the mid MS Valley and Mid-South Saturday. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will accompany this feature, and overspread much of the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast through the day. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop slowly northeastward across the lower MS Valley through Saturday evening. Rich low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, will attempt to return northward in tandem with a surface warm front across parts of this region. A cold front attendant to the surface low is expected to move eastward over much of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast through the period. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning along/near the cold front in LA. The airmass across southern LA into southern and central MS should slowly destabilize through Saturday afternoon, as both low-level moisture increases and daytime heating occurs. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE is forecast to reach 500-1000 J/kg by peak afternoon heating. Current expectations are for convection occurring along or just ahead of the cold front to gradually intensify Saturday afternoon. The enhanced mid-level winds associated with the upper trough/low and a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will likely foster 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicells and supercells appear possible. Even though the best lift associated with a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet should shift to the north of the surface warm sector through the day, there should still be sufficient low-level shear farther south across southern LA/MS/AL to support a threat for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that can be sustained. Damaging winds may also occur with short line segments as the cold front advances eastward. The severe threat should gradually wane with eastward extent Saturday evening as convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. But, an isolated severe risk may persist along/near the AL Gulf Coast and western FL Panhandle Saturday night, as enough instability/low-level moisture to support surface-based thunderstorms should be present across these areas. ..Gleason.. 10/28/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible, mainly along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in southeast Texas to coastal southwest Louisiana from early evening into tonight. ...Western Gulf Coast... Primary severe threat this afternoon should exist across the Middle TX Coast, near the southern extent of a broken linear convective band that extends from the Heart of TX along a surface cold front. A severe storm or two may develop this afternoon out of pre-frontal confluence in a narrow corridor along the surface warm front. Farther south into the warm sector, low-level winds have become veered per time-series of Corpus Christi VWP data and the cold front will push offshore by mid-afternoon. In the wake of these storms, there are indications of convective redevelopment this evening near the surface trough bent-back to the north-northwest from the coastal surface low, immediately ahead of the mid-level low spreading east from central TX. Forecast soundings and observational trends suggest this activity will be increasingly elevated inland from the coast. Strong cloud-bearing shear would favor a threat for severe hail, although a predominant linear mode depicted in most CAMs suggest size growth will be limited. Areas along the coast in southeast TX to southwest LA still appear to have some potential for surface-based inflow parcels and a low-probability tornado/damaging wind threat into tonight. ..Grams/Wendt.. 10/28/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 10/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel low accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will track eastward across south-central TX, while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across south TX. As surface temperatures climb into the middle/upper 70s to lower 80s behind the front -- aided by downslope flow and efficient diurnal heating/mixing -- 20-30 percent minimum RH should develop across parts of south TX along the Rio Grande Valley. These dry conditions, coupled with 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. While light precipitation is possible along the cold front, the heavier precipitation should be displaced to the east of the Elevated highlights. Therefore, fuels should be at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. Farther north, a belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will cross the northern Rockies, favoring lee troughing and dry/breezy conditions over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, recent precipitation over these areas casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 27 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 27 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE MIDDLE COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of southeast Texas including the Middle Texas Coast. A brief tornado or two and hail appear most likely. ...Southeast Texas... A deep upper low/shortwave trough will travel eastward across TX, with gradual filling. A tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist roughly north of I-10, with rapid cooling aloft coincident with a "Pacific front." At the surface, an inverted trough will develop and translate from central into southeast TX as low-level moisture return occurs along a warm front. This will result in a tight instability gradient, limiting the northward extent of SBCAPE. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime well ahead of the cold front, but antecedent cool air over southeast TX may result in very little northward movement of the warm front. A sector of favorable instability and low-level shear will exist, and may favor a few supercells with brief tornado threat. The strongest 850 mb winds and thus SRH may remain on the cool side of the warm front, and models indicate much less SRH coincident with the most unstable air farther south. Therefore, any tornadoes are expected to be brief. Additional storms will occur along the cold front, which will have rapidly veering surface winds. Deep-layer shear combined with cool temperatures aloft will still favor hail, and a cell or two could produce substantial hail, including the potential for left movers. Heating will be limited, which will also mitigate overall severe potential. ..Jewell.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE MIDDLE COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of southeast Texas including the Middle Texas Coast. A brief tornado or two and hail appear most likely. ...Southeast Texas... A deep upper low/shortwave trough will travel eastward across TX, with gradual filling. A tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist roughly north of I-10, with rapid cooling aloft coincident with a "Pacific front." At the surface, an inverted trough will develop and translate from central into southeast TX as low-level moisture return occurs along a warm front. This will result in a tight instability gradient, limiting the northward extent of SBCAPE. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime well ahead of the cold front, but antecedent cool air over southeast TX may result in very little northward movement of the warm front. A sector of favorable instability and low-level shear will exist, and may favor a few supercells with brief tornado threat. The strongest 850 mb winds and thus SRH may remain on the cool side of the warm front, and models indicate much less SRH coincident with the most unstable air farther south. Therefore, any tornadoes are expected to be brief. Additional storms will occur along the cold front, which will have rapidly veering surface winds. Deep-layer shear combined with cool temperatures aloft will still favor hail, and a cell or two could produce substantial hail, including the potential for left movers. Heating will be limited, which will also mitigate overall severe potential. ..Jewell.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...MAINLY TONIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible from northwest Texas this evening into the Hill Country through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies have trended more zonal across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. However, a significant remnant short wave perturbation associated with this regime continues to dig across the Four Corners vicinity, and is forecast to reach the Texas South Plains vicinity by late tonight. Models suggest that further deepening of an embedded mid-level low is unlikely, but associated forcing for ascent may continue to contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis across eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas this afternoon and evening. In the wake of a more substantive preceding short wave trough (now accelerating across Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity), expansive cold surface ridging has overspread most areas east of the Rockies. The ridging is currently centered over the lower Great Lakes region, but extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Substantive low-level moisture is largely confined to the vicinity of the frontal zone across the Florida peninsula and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models suggest that northward return of this moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas Gulf coast vicinity is possible by late tonight, but low-level moisture return inland of coastal areas, through the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the Texas South Plains, will be rather modest, even for the time of year. Destabilization probably will still be sufficient, coupled with the increasing forcing for ascent associated with the digging short wave trough, to contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening through tonight. However, much of the rest of the U.S. will remain generally dry and or stable, with negligible risk for thunderstorms. ...Texas South Plains into Hill Country vicinity... Despite the limited moisture, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, associated with remnant elevated mixed-layer air and daytime boundary-layer heating and mixing, probably will be sufficient to contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization by this afternoon. Largest CAPE may be confined to a rather narrow corridor along a zone of strong differential surface heating/developing dryline. This could include values on the order of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg by early evening, which may be maintained after dark with some further boundary-layer moistening and cooling aloft. Beneath increasing difluent and divergent flow aloft, focused low-level convergence/warm advection might contribute to the initiation of isolated to widely scattered strong storms across the southeastern Texas Panhandle prior to sunset. However, more widespread thunderstorm development likely will await the arrival of stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the Texas South Plains, mostly after 28/01-02Z. A few of these may pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. While the severe weather potential may generally wane toward 06Z as convection becomes increasingly widespread, conditions may remain favorable for isolated supercell development within a persistent focused area of stronger low-level warm advection on the southern periphery of the activity spreading southeastward into the Edwards Plateau near San Angelo/Junction through around 06-09Z. ..Kerr.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...MAINLY TONIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible from northwest Texas this evening into the Hill Country through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies have trended more zonal across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. However, a significant remnant short wave perturbation associated with this regime continues to dig across the Four Corners vicinity, and is forecast to reach the Texas South Plains vicinity by late tonight. Models suggest that further deepening of an embedded mid-level low is unlikely, but associated forcing for ascent may continue to contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis across eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas this afternoon and evening. In the wake of a more substantive preceding short wave trough (now accelerating across Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity), expansive cold surface ridging has overspread most areas east of the Rockies. The ridging is currently centered over the lower Great Lakes region, but extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Substantive low-level moisture is largely confined to the vicinity of the frontal zone across the Florida peninsula and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models suggest that northward return of this moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas Gulf coast vicinity is possible by late tonight, but low-level moisture return inland of coastal areas, through the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the Texas South Plains, will be rather modest, even for the time of year. Destabilization probably will still be sufficient, coupled with the increasing forcing for ascent associated with the digging short wave trough, to contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening through tonight. However, much of the rest of the U.S. will remain generally dry and or stable, with negligible risk for thunderstorms. ...Texas South Plains into Hill Country vicinity... Despite the limited moisture, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, associated with remnant elevated mixed-layer air and daytime boundary-layer heating and mixing, probably will be sufficient to contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization by this afternoon. Largest CAPE may be confined to a rather narrow corridor along a zone of strong differential surface heating/developing dryline. This could include values on the order of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg by early evening, which may be maintained after dark with some further boundary-layer moistening and cooling aloft. Beneath increasing difluent and divergent flow aloft, focused low-level convergence/warm advection might contribute to the initiation of isolated to widely scattered strong storms across the southeastern Texas Panhandle prior to sunset. However, more widespread thunderstorm development likely will await the arrival of stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the Texas South Plains, mostly after 28/01-02Z. A few of these may pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. While the severe weather potential may generally wane toward 06Z as convection becomes increasingly widespread, conditions may remain favorable for isolated supercell development within a persistent focused area of stronger low-level warm advection on the southern periphery of the activity spreading southeastward into the Edwards Plateau near San Angelo/Junction through around 06-09Z. ..Kerr.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states today, with a surface low expected to surge southeast across west Texas as high pressure builds across the Interior West. Occasionally dry and windy conditions should develop by afternoon behind the low in parts of west Texas. However, questionable fuel receptiveness and marginally low RH suggest that fire weather highlights are not needed. Similarly, dry offshore flow is also likely across southern California, with Elevated conditions likely. Nonetheless, fire weather highlights have been withheld since fuels across the area are poorly receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 26 17:25:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 26 17:25:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma, southwest Texas, and the Texas Hill Country. ...Southern Plains... A strong shortwave trough will dig from the Four Corners region across NM and the southern High Plains Thursday into Thursday night. A surface lee cyclone initially over southeastern CO is forecast to develop southeastward across the southern High Plains through the day. An attendant cold front should likewise sweep southeastward over the southern High Plains. A prior cold front passage has shunted rich low-level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico. Still, modest low-level moisture return will occur across TX on Thursday. Most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will be in place ahead of the surface low/cold front across the southern High Plains by early Thursday evening. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough, steep mid-level lapse rates, and daytime heating should all contribute to the development of a narrow corridor of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon from the southeastern TX Panhandle into southwest TX. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any thunderstorms that can form in this environment. Current expectations are for convection to gradually develop late Thursday afternoon and evening near the surface low in northwest TX as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. This initial activity may pose an isolated threat for both large hail and damaging winds, with some potential for a supercell given long, straight hodographs forecast at mid/upper levels. Additional thunderstorms should eventually form along the cold front across southwest TX and quickly grow upscale Thursday evening/night, with an associated threat for isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail. A marginal severe risk may persist Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of the TX Hill Country as mainly elevated thunderstorms continue eastward along/ahead of the cold front, with increasing low-level moisture and warm advection acting to partially offset nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. At this point, the limited low-level moisture and weak instability forecast render too much uncertainty to include greater severe probabilities across the southern Plains. ..Gleason.. 10/26/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Surface low development will take place across the central and southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Rockies today. While breezy conditions will develop across the western portions of the Plains states, the surface airmass will be marginally dry at best, with fuels relatively poorly receptive to wildfire spread. While sparse Elevated conditions may occur across western Kansas by afternoon peak heating, significant wildfire-spread potential appears too low to warrant fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough moving toward the Northeast States/New England and a warm advection regime will influence the potential for isolated thunderstorms, mostly for coastal New England. Poor lapse rates will limit CAPE and any potential for severe storms. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today across north Florida/south Georgia along a cold front. A narrow corridor of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy, but forcing for ascent will continue to weaken with time, so storm coverage should remain isolated. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over Washington/Oregon will dig southeastward toward UT through tonight. Cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet will contribute to weak buoyancy, mainly this afternoon/evening from southeast Idaho to northwest Colorado. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible, but relatively cold temperature profiles suggest that most of the convective precipitation will be snow. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 10/26/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 25 17:38:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough over the OH Valley Wednesday morning is forecast to quickly advance across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday evening. A related surface low over Lower MI should likewise develop quickly northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward over much of the eastern states through the period. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning along the southern portion of the cold front, mainly across parts of southern/coastal GA and north FL. This region will become increasingly displaced from the large-scale forcing associated with the shortwave trough well to the north. Accordingly, coverage of convection should remain quite sparse through the day as the cold front advances eastward. Farther north, occasional lightning flashes appear possible with low-level warm-advection driven elevated convection across parts of far eastern NY into New England. Limited heating and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to hinder the development of much instability, with MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg. This weak instability should limit the overall severe threat across these areas, even though deep-layer shear is forecast to slowly strengthen through the day. Across the western CONUS, upper troughing should amplify through the period as an embedded shortwave trough digs from the northern Great Basin to the Four Corners region. The strong forcing and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the shortwave trough may encourage some convection to develop mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern UT into southern WY and western/central CO. Some of this activity may be capable of producing isolated lightning flashes, even though instability will likely remain quite meager. ..Gleason.. 10/25/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low will eject into the Mississippi Valley as high pressure begins to settle into the Plains states today. Patchy dry and breezy conditions are possible across western portions of the central Plains by afternoon peak heating. However, recent appreciable rainfall accumulations and the localized nature of dry/windy conditions across the Plains suggest that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more