Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and an accompanying surface low will traverse the MS Valley today as surface high pressure resides over the East and West Coasts. Relatively cool and or moist surface conditions should overspread most locales and limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Dakotas/MN border south-southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the this upper trough, with the southernmost shortwave over TX early Saturday. This southern wave is forecast to continue progressing eastward/southeastward throughout the period, while a pair of northern shortwaves evolve into a closed mid-latitude cyclone over the Mid MS Valley. This evolution results in a more neutral tilt to the larger upper trough by Saturday evening, and a slightly negative tilt by early Sunday morning. Large-scale ascent and mass response ahead of the southern shortwave trough will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf, with the resulting low approaching the FL Peninsula late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Guidance continues to show notably large differences (i.e. 400 to 500 km) in the location of this surface low early Sunday morning. These differences result in more forecast uncertainty than is typical at this forecast range. The faster solutions are favored at this time, particularly the HREF and Canadian, placing the surface low over the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Sunday. A low-amplitude, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will precede this surface low (and parent surface low), contributing to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, beginning late Saturday afternoon. Resultant warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall buoyancy, even as upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints move over south FL late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This should limit updraft strength within the confined warm sector over south FL throughout much of the night. However, as the low continues northeastward, the combination surface convergence and large-scale ascent within this modestly buoyant environment should be able to support deeper updrafts, and perhaps even the development of a convective line. Damaging gusts are possible with any deeper, more sustained convection. Veering low-level hodographs could also support the potential for a few tornadoes. Most likely location for severe weather will be in the vicinity of the surface low, which is expected to move across the central portion of the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex. An upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S. In the low levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening. With maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the period. Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level low over east-central NM. This mid-level disturbance will move east tonight reaching the eastern part of the TX Panhandle by daybreak. The 00 UTC Amarillo, TX raob showed 300 J/kg MUCAPE due largely to cold 500 mb temperatures (-20 deg C) steepening lapse rates in the mid levels atop a cool/stable boundary layer. A few sporadic bands/clusters of convection will shift east across the southern High Plains this evening/tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are prevalent across the remainder of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 12/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level low over east-central NM. This mid-level disturbance will move east tonight reaching the eastern part of the TX Panhandle by daybreak. The 00 UTC Amarillo, TX raob showed 300 J/kg MUCAPE due largely to cold 500 mb temperatures (-20 deg C) steepening lapse rates in the mid levels atop a cool/stable boundary layer. A few sporadic bands/clusters of convection will shift east across the southern High Plains this evening/tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are prevalent across the remainder of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 12/15/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 14 23:48:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 14 23:48:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more