Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 13 17:56:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX AND MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Middle into Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain Monday afternoon through Monday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Middle/Upper TX Coast into Southern LA... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the southern High Plains before continuing eastward across the southern Plains during the day and then more northeastward into the Mid MS Valley late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this wave, spreading across the southern Plains early Monday and across much of the lower/middle MS Valley by Monday night. Low-level moisture will attempt to return northward across TX ahead of this shortwave, but moisture scouring resulting from a previous frontal intrusion and largely continental trajectories will likely keep 60s dewpoints confined to the western and central Gulf Coasts. A surface low is expected to develop within the frontal zone in the vicinity of the Middle TX coast by Monday afternoon. This low should then move eastward over the immediate coastal areas of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. The strongest large-scale forcing for ascent will be displaced well north of the Gulf Coast but low-level convergence near the low and warm front should provide enough lift for storm development. The kinematic environment supports supercells, with strong low-level flow beneath moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft. Given this kinematic support, the overall severe threat will be largely tied to thermodynamics. As such, location of the surface low and warm front will have a large influence on how far inland the warm sector penetrates and where the greater severe risks exist. Currently, the highest potential is anticipated along the near coastal areas of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two may occur in this areas. A low-probability threat for hail also exists just north of the warm front where a few stronger elevated storms are possible. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are forecast into early/mid afternoon over central and southern Florida. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will lift northeastward across New England through the period. A related cold front extends south-southwestward off the Eastern Seaboard into the central FL Peninsula, where it becomes increasingly diffuse. Along/ahead of the southward-moving front, steep midlevel lapse rates atop upper 60s/lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints (sampled by the 12Z TBW sounding) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across central into southern FL this afternoon. However, weak/shallow frontal ascent should generally limit convective coverage and intensity. Farther west, a closed midlevel low evident in water vapor imagery will dig southeastward across the southwestern states. As DCVA and cold midlevel temperatures preceding this feature overspread northern NM and southwestern CO, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. However, the coverage of this activity appears too minimal for thunderstorm probabilities given marginal midlevel moisture/instability across the region. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 11/13/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain probable this afternoon from the northeast TX Panhandle into northwest OK and west/southwest KS. Morning surface observations already show winds increasing to 15 mph, with further strengthening to 20-25 mph expected. The probability for widespread RH reductions below 25% remains low, but some areas may see periods of 20-25% RH with gusty winds. Elevated conditions are also likely for the Gila region of southeast AZ/southwest NM. However, latest fuel analyses continue to show ERC values near or below seasonal normals for both regions, which will mitigate more robust fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners today and reach the southern High Plains by early Monday morning. This will promote a deepening surface low in eastern Colorado. An increase in low-level winds is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains. Recent cooler conditions and precipitation have generally moistened fuels in the region. Some of the stronger, gustier winds are probable in western Kansas. This area could see locally elevated conditions should RH fall low enough during the afternoon. As the trough moves east, stronger northerly mid-level winds will overspread southern California during the afternoon. At the same time, the offshore pressure gradient will increase through Monday morning. Some locally elevated conditions are also possible where fuels have remained drier recently, primarily out of the higher terrain. These areas should be quite limited spatially given the past weeks rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 12 17:54:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 12 17:54:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the broadly cyclonic flow aloft across CONUS on Sunday. The lead shortwave is expected to begin the period over the Upper OH Valley, before then ejecting northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. A pair of phased shortwaves are expected farther west. The northern shortwave will extend from southern Saskatchewan through central MT early Sunday, while the southern shortwave extends from the western Great Basin through central CA. Expectation is for the northern wave to move eastward throughout the day, moving through eastern MT and into the northern Plains. The southern wave is expected to move more southeastward, progressing across the Four Corners/Southwest into the southern High Plains. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany the southern shortwave, but scant low to mid-level moisture and generally cold profiles should limit buoyancy. As a result, despite strong forcing for ascent, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10%. Surface pressure will lower across the Plains ahead of this wave as well, with increasing low-level southerly flow across the southern Plains. Even so, low-level moisture return will be minimal due to the previous frontal intrusion. Low-level moisture will be in place over the FL Peninsula ahead of a weakening cold front. However, convergence along the front will be weak and low/mid-level temperatures will remain warm, limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level trough currently centered over the Upper/Middle MS Valley will gradually deamplify as it tracks east-northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes vicinity through the period. Within the broad downstream cyclonic flow aloft, water vapor imagery reveals an embedded impulse tracking northeastward across New England. As the associated lobe of ascent overspreads weak/elevated instability over eastern ME (per GYX observed 12Z sounding), isolated lightning flashes will be possible into early afternoon. In the low-levels, a cold front extends southwestward along the Appalachians into the Central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms are possible over southeast LA -- where lower 60s dewpoints reside beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. However much of this activity may remain confined to the Gulf waters. Farther east, weakly confluent low-level flow coupled with diurnal heating of rich low-level moisture should support a few thunderstorms across the southern FL Peninsula this afternoon. These storms should generally be focused along the east coast -- where a very weak sea breeze should favor stronger convergence/mesoscale ascent. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak deep-layer flow/shear (evident in the MFL 12Z observed sounding) should limit convective intensity/organization. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 11/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited for today for much of the CONUS. Dry conditions are noted across portions of the southern/central High Plains and the lower CO River Valley, but weak winds are expected for these regions. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 11/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... A brief period of shortwave ridging aloft will occur within the Plains today. Through the day, however, southerly surface winds will be on the increase as the next shortwave trough moves into the Great Basin by early Sunday morning. With the strongest winds offset from afternoon RH minima and fuels generally unperceptive, fire weather concerns will be low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ILM TO 35 NNW ILM TO 30 WSW CLT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944 ..WEINMAN..11/11/22 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-013-015-025-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-057- 061-063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103- 105-107-117-119-123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151- 153-157-159-163-165-167-169-177-179-181-183-185-187-191-195- 111840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE CABARRUS CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO Read more

WW 569 TORNADO NC SC VA CW 111115Z - 112000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and eastern North Carolina Northeastern South Carolina Central and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 615 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The tornado threat well northeast of T.D. Nicole's center is expected to expand considerably northward/inland through early/mid afternoon, as Nicole accelerates into the western Carolinas, and its outer convective bands interact with a broadly destabilizing air mass. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Florence SC to 45 miles east northeast of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 568... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 12035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A semi-amplified/progressive upper-flow pattern will exist over the CONUS on Saturday. A prominent upper trough will shift east-northeastward over the Midwest/Great Lakes and Ontario. Isolated thunderstorm potential, associated with a minimally unstable environment, may linger across coastal New England Saturday morning prior to the cold front clearing the Eastern Seaboard. A few thunderstorms could occur along the middle Gulf Coast near the advancing front Saturday morning, although the greater probability and coverage of thunderstorms will be over the western/northern Gulf of Mexico. Across Florida, the glancing cyclonic influence of the Midwest upper trough, along with some increase in low-level convergence and a residually moist air mass across the central/southern Peninsula, will contribute to the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms on Saturday. A closed mid-level low with related -25C to -30C 500mb cold core will spread southeastward from western Oregon toward the Great Basin through Saturday night. Steepening lapse rates could influence some convective precipitation into parts of the Great Basin/Nevada, although marginal thermodynamic characteristics and a limited potential for charge separation should keep the potential for thunderstorms low. ..Guyer.. 11/11/2022 Read more

MD 1944 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 569... FOR NORTHEAST NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Areas affected...Northeast NC into southeast VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 569... Valid 111706Z - 111900Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues. SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues across Tornado Watch 569, with a locally higher risk across parts of northeast NC into southeast VA during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows pockets of cloud clearing/thinning amid rich boundary layer moisture (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) across parts of northeast NC into southeast VA. Here, surface winds are favorably backed beneath deep/strong southerly winds per RAX/AKQ VWPs. This wind profile is supporting modest low-level hodograph curvature/streamwise vorticity, characterized by 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per aforementioned VWPs. RAX radar data depicts a broken band of organizing supercell structures spreading northward into this increasingly favorable environment, and some modest intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon given increasing boundary-layer theta-e and strengthening low-level shear. Convection has generally been tracking northward at around 30 mph, though any discrete/semi-discrete cells that track more north-northeastward should pose the greatest tornado threat. ..Weinman.. 11/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 36807824 37037817 37277800 37527770 37667744 37707702 37527655 37287619 36967596 36427576 36117576 35827625 35767675 35887733 36037775 36207804 36527823 36807824 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NC/VA...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes are possible through mid-late afternoon over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Large hail will be the main severe-weather threat in south Texas this afternoon/evening. ...NC/VA through mid-late afternoon... The remnants of Nicole will accelerate northeastward and weaken by tonight over the Mid-Atlantic. In the interim, there will still be the potential for broken convective bands from NC into VA through the afternoon as some low-level destabilization occurs in cloud breaks. Curved low-level hodographs with effective SRH at or above 200 m2/s2 will be maintained northeast of the remnant circulation center through the afternoon, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with supercells in the convective bands. ...Central/south TX through this evening... Slightly elevated strong-severe storms are ongoing across central TX on the immediate cool side of a surface cold front. This front will continue to move southeastward to the coastal plain by this evening, as an associated midlevel trough progresses eastward over the southern Plains. The threat for surface-based storms will increase some this afternoon from roughly San Antonio to Corpus Christi, just ahead of the front in a zone of ascent with a lead mid-upper speed max over the Big Bend (as evidenced by the warm sector convection over Real County as of 16z). Long/relatively straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates greater than 7 C/km, and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will support the potential for a few supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger) and damaging gusts from early afternoon until the storms move off the middle TX coast by late evening. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 11/11/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS in the wake of a strong cold front across the Plains and due to widespread precipitation across the East Coast associated with the remnants of Hurricane Nicole. Locally dry/breezy conditions across the higher terrain of southern California will wane through the day amid a weakening pressure gradient. ..Moore.. 11/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be present across much of the western and central U.S. today. A combination of cooler temperatures and recent/expected precipitation will keep fire weather concerns minimal during the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Areas affected...parts of northern Missouri into eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101747Z - 101915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with storms gradually strengthening along a cold front. A WW issuance appears unlikely given the isolated extent of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...A strong surface cold front continues to advance eastward in tandem with a mid-level jet streak overspreading the Upper MS Valley. Ahead of the cold front, small cloud breaks, and diurnal heating is supporting surface temperatures warming into the 70s F, that combined with 60+ F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 17Z mesoanalysis) is contributing to 500 J/kg of tall, thin MLCAPE. Coincident with this marginal buoyancy is a unidirectional speed-shear profile, with elongated, relatively straight hodographs shown by RAP forecast soundings. Modest, gradual intensification of a low-topped squall line is underway along the cold front in central IA and this trend may continue through the afternoon. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe threat should remain isolated though, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40229393 42199297 43319240 44809136 44939060 44858987 44378934 43538922 41899029 40529139 40009166 39489204 38899268 38619328 38719383 38969412 39469425 40229393 Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0566 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 566 TORNADO GA SC CW 101745Z - 110000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Offshore thunderstorms will continue to track inland and pose a risk of a few brief tornadoes this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles south of Waycross GA to 55 miles northeast of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 565... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 12025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be possible Friday across parts of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Per latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center, a gradually weakening Nicole should be centered over west-central/north-central Georgia Friday morning, and subsequently continue northeastward parallel to the Appalachians as it undergoes a post-tropical transition through Friday afternoon and Friday night. Even though Nicole is expected to weaken, low/mid-level winds on its eastern periphery will remain strong including a 45-55 kt low-level jet. Meanwhile, rich low-level moisture, characterized by at least upper 60s surface dewpoints, is expected to spread inland ahead of the surface low from the central Carolinas into southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic through Friday evening. This moisture along with the possibility of some cloud breaks in conjunction with enlarged low-level hodographs (effective SRH of at least 200-300 m2/s2) will support low-topped supercell potential. Current thinking is the most supercell/tornado-favorable collocation of ingredients should materialize across central/eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. The northward extent of the tornado risk across the Mid-Atlantic appears increasingly marginal with time Friday evening as boundary-layer instability becomes quite weak. But, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints could reach as far north as southern New England as the surface wave begins to deepen again in its post-tropical transition. ...Central into Coastal/Deep South Texas... The region will be influenced by the southern periphery of an upper trough/polar jet over the Plains. A southeast-moving cold front should generally be located from the ArkLaTex southwestward toward the Texas Big Bend Friday morning, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing along/behind the surface reflection of the front. These elevated post-frontal storms could produce some hail during the day, although mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep and elevated buoyancy will tend to remain weak (less than 1000 J/kg MUCAPE). As the boundary layer warms, a few surface-based storms may develop Friday afternoon near the surface front across Deep South Texas and the middle Texas Coast. Some of the storms may exhibit supercell characteristics with isolated large hail and damaging wind potential before the front clears the coast by Friday mid/late evening. ..Guyer.. 11/10/2022 Read more

MD 1936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL GEORGIA TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
Mesoscale Discussion 1936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Areas affected...portions of Coastal Georgia to the South Carolina Border Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101731Z - 101900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop along the GA coastal area, up to the SC border this afternoon as a band of low-topped, transient supercells continues to shift northward. A WW issuance is being considered. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Nicole continues to drift northwestward, with a band of low-topped transient supercells persisting along the GA/FL border. So far, these storms have produced mainly brief, transient low-level rotation, with no tornadoes reported or TDSs detecting on regional radars so far. Relatively more favorable, buoyant air has struggled to advect appreciably far inland, with northeasterly surface winds and cloud cover keeping temperatures/dewpoints down to around 68-70 F just north of the ongoing convective band. Visible satellite does show some clearing around the primary northward-moving band of transient supercells, suggesting that slightly more buoyant air may advect inland later this afternoon. Some guidance hints at MLCAPE approaching the 500-1000 J/kg range immediately onshore in the next few hours. Given favorably curved, elongated hodographs recently shown by regional VADs, this buoyancy could support an isolated tornado threat along the shoreline. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... LAT...LON 31298187 31988154 32288129 32518089 32588055 32498037 32188052 31728090 31528104 31318124 31298187 Read more