Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will likely extend from southwest Quebec into the Mid-Atlantic early D4/Tuesday, before then progressing eastward throughout the day. Zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS in its wake on D5/Wednesday, before a slow-moving upper low initially off the southern CA coast introduces some amplitude into the southern stream. This upper low will likely remain off the southern CA coast through the period, but a preceding low-amplitude shortwave may move through the Southwest on D5/Wednesday and into Plains on D6/Thursday. Modest low-level moisture return should precede this shortwave, and some interaction between this shortwave (and attendant cold front) with this buoyancy is possible on D7/Friday. However, weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit the overall severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough will likely extend from southwest Quebec into the Mid-Atlantic early D4/Tuesday, before then progressing eastward throughout the day. Zonal flow is expected across much of the CONUS in its wake on D5/Wednesday, before a slow-moving upper low initially off the southern CA coast introduces some amplitude into the southern stream. This upper low will likely remain off the southern CA coast through the period, but a preceding low-amplitude shortwave may move through the Southwest on D5/Wednesday and into Plains on D6/Thursday. Modest low-level moisture return should precede this shortwave, and some interaction between this shortwave (and attendant cold front) with this buoyancy is possible on D7/Friday. However, weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated flashes are also possible along the northern California coast. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to cover much of the central and eastern CONUS early Monday morning. A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to be embedded within this troughing, one over the Mid-Atlantic and the other extending from northwestern Ontario into the Mid MS Valley. The eastern wave is expected to progress quickly northward across the Northeast while the western wave moves southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The western wave is then forecast to continue more eastward, ending the period extending from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields will accompany this wave, with a belt of 90 to 100 kt 500-mb flow likely across the Mid MS Valley throughout the day. However, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with its limited low-level moisture precluding thunderstorm development. There is a low probability that some limited low-level moisture reaches NJ, Long Island, and portions of southern New England early Monday morning, just ahead of a surface low associated with the eastern shortwave. If this occurs, some convective structures are possible. Most of this convection would be shallow, but the potential exists for a few cores to become deep enough for lightning. Strong kinematic fields suggests any deeper, more sustained cores could produce damaging gusts, but the overall uncertainty of the scenario merits leaving the area free of severe probabilities for this outlook. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to move across northern CA and the Pacific Northwest on Monday. The lead shortwave is forecast to move from northern California into ID during the first half of the period while another shortwave moves along the Pacific Northwest coast during the second half. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support a few isolated flashes along the northern CA coast. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated flashes are also possible along the northern California coast. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to cover much of the central and eastern CONUS early Monday morning. A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to be embedded within this troughing, one over the Mid-Atlantic and the other extending from northwestern Ontario into the Mid MS Valley. The eastern wave is expected to progress quickly northward across the Northeast while the western wave moves southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The western wave is then forecast to continue more eastward, ending the period extending from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields will accompany this wave, with a belt of 90 to 100 kt 500-mb flow likely across the Mid MS Valley throughout the day. However, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with its limited low-level moisture precluding thunderstorm development. There is a low probability that some limited low-level moisture reaches NJ, Long Island, and portions of southern New England early Monday morning, just ahead of a surface low associated with the eastern shortwave. If this occurs, some convective structures are possible. Most of this convection would be shallow, but the potential exists for a few cores to become deep enough for lightning. Strong kinematic fields suggests any deeper, more sustained cores could produce damaging gusts, but the overall uncertainty of the scenario merits leaving the area free of severe probabilities for this outlook. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to move across northern CA and the Pacific Northwest on Monday. The lead shortwave is forecast to move from northern California into ID during the first half of the period while another shortwave moves along the Pacific Northwest coast during the second half. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support a few isolated flashes along the northern CA coast. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated flashes are also possible along the northern California coast. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to cover much of the central and eastern CONUS early Monday morning. A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to be embedded within this troughing, one over the Mid-Atlantic and the other extending from northwestern Ontario into the Mid MS Valley. The eastern wave is expected to progress quickly northward across the Northeast while the western wave moves southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The western wave is then forecast to continue more eastward, ending the period extending from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields will accompany this wave, with a belt of 90 to 100 kt 500-mb flow likely across the Mid MS Valley throughout the day. However, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with its limited low-level moisture precluding thunderstorm development. There is a low probability that some limited low-level moisture reaches NJ, Long Island, and portions of southern New England early Monday morning, just ahead of a surface low associated with the eastern shortwave. If this occurs, some convective structures are possible. Most of this convection would be shallow, but the potential exists for a few cores to become deep enough for lightning. Strong kinematic fields suggests any deeper, more sustained cores could produce damaging gusts, but the overall uncertainty of the scenario merits leaving the area free of severe probabilities for this outlook. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to move across northern CA and the Pacific Northwest on Monday. The lead shortwave is forecast to move from northern California into ID during the first half of the period while another shortwave moves along the Pacific Northwest coast during the second half. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support a few isolated flashes along the northern CA coast. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated flashes are also possible along the northern California coast. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to cover much of the central and eastern CONUS early Monday morning. A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to be embedded within this troughing, one over the Mid-Atlantic and the other extending from northwestern Ontario into the Mid MS Valley. The eastern wave is expected to progress quickly northward across the Northeast while the western wave moves southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The western wave is then forecast to continue more eastward, ending the period extending from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields will accompany this wave, with a belt of 90 to 100 kt 500-mb flow likely across the Mid MS Valley throughout the day. However, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with its limited low-level moisture precluding thunderstorm development. There is a low probability that some limited low-level moisture reaches NJ, Long Island, and portions of southern New England early Monday morning, just ahead of a surface low associated with the eastern shortwave. If this occurs, some convective structures are possible. Most of this convection would be shallow, but the potential exists for a few cores to become deep enough for lightning. Strong kinematic fields suggests any deeper, more sustained cores could produce damaging gusts, but the overall uncertainty of the scenario merits leaving the area free of severe probabilities for this outlook. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to move across northern CA and the Pacific Northwest on Monday. The lead shortwave is forecast to move from northern California into ID during the first half of the period while another shortwave moves along the Pacific Northwest coast during the second half. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support a few isolated flashes along the northern CA coast. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated flashes are also possible along the northern California coast. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to cover much of the central and eastern CONUS early Monday morning. A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to be embedded within this troughing, one over the Mid-Atlantic and the other extending from northwestern Ontario into the Mid MS Valley. The eastern wave is expected to progress quickly northward across the Northeast while the western wave moves southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The western wave is then forecast to continue more eastward, ending the period extending from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields will accompany this wave, with a belt of 90 to 100 kt 500-mb flow likely across the Mid MS Valley throughout the day. However, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with its limited low-level moisture precluding thunderstorm development. There is a low probability that some limited low-level moisture reaches NJ, Long Island, and portions of southern New England early Monday morning, just ahead of a surface low associated with the eastern shortwave. If this occurs, some convective structures are possible. Most of this convection would be shallow, but the potential exists for a few cores to become deep enough for lightning. Strong kinematic fields suggests any deeper, more sustained cores could produce damaging gusts, but the overall uncertainty of the scenario merits leaving the area free of severe probabilities for this outlook. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to move across northern CA and the Pacific Northwest on Monday. The lead shortwave is forecast to move from northern California into ID during the first half of the period while another shortwave moves along the Pacific Northwest coast during the second half. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support a few isolated flashes along the northern CA coast. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. Primary severe hazard is damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface low likely over the northern FL/southeast GA vicinity early Sunday morning is forecast to undergo robust deepening throughout the day at it moves rapidly northward. This low is expected to further occlude during this period as well, particularly from Sunday evening onward through early Monday morning. General expectation is for this low to be in the NJ vicinity by 12Z Monday. Given the orientation of the coastline and largely meridional motion of the low, subtle changes to the track of the low could have an outsized influence on the severe risk. A more easterly track will keep much of the higher theta-e air offshore, likely confining the severe risk to the immediate coastal areas and the NC Outer Bank. However, a more westerly track, even by just 50-75 miles, could place significantly more land area within the warm sector, particularly across eastern NC. Shear across the warm sector is expected to be very strong, supported by robust low to mid-level southeasterly flow east of the center of the deepening cyclone. The warm sector will likely feature low to mid 60s dewpoints, but surface heating will be minimal and mid-level lapse rates will be poor, owing to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Even so, the very strong large-scale forcing for ascent associated with this system will likely lead to the development of narrow, but strongly forced convective line. Current expectation is for this line to impact land areas from northeastern SC across eastern NC and the Outer Banks. Primary threat within this line would be damaging wind gusts, but a brief tornado or two is also possible. A low-probability severe threat may linger during the morning hours farther south over the FL Peninsula. Here, some deep convection is still possible along the primary surface trough before it moves offshore. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. Primary severe hazard is damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface low likely over the northern FL/southeast GA vicinity early Sunday morning is forecast to undergo robust deepening throughout the day at it moves rapidly northward. This low is expected to further occlude during this period as well, particularly from Sunday evening onward through early Monday morning. General expectation is for this low to be in the NJ vicinity by 12Z Monday. Given the orientation of the coastline and largely meridional motion of the low, subtle changes to the track of the low could have an outsized influence on the severe risk. A more easterly track will keep much of the higher theta-e air offshore, likely confining the severe risk to the immediate coastal areas and the NC Outer Bank. However, a more westerly track, even by just 50-75 miles, could place significantly more land area within the warm sector, particularly across eastern NC. Shear across the warm sector is expected to be very strong, supported by robust low to mid-level southeasterly flow east of the center of the deepening cyclone. The warm sector will likely feature low to mid 60s dewpoints, but surface heating will be minimal and mid-level lapse rates will be poor, owing to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Even so, the very strong large-scale forcing for ascent associated with this system will likely lead to the development of narrow, but strongly forced convective line. Current expectation is for this line to impact land areas from northeastern SC across eastern NC and the Outer Banks. Primary threat within this line would be damaging wind gusts, but a brief tornado or two is also possible. A low-probability severe threat may linger during the morning hours farther south over the FL Peninsula. Here, some deep convection is still possible along the primary surface trough before it moves offshore. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. Primary severe hazard is damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface low likely over the northern FL/southeast GA vicinity early Sunday morning is forecast to undergo robust deepening throughout the day at it moves rapidly northward. This low is expected to further occlude during this period as well, particularly from Sunday evening onward through early Monday morning. General expectation is for this low to be in the NJ vicinity by 12Z Monday. Given the orientation of the coastline and largely meridional motion of the low, subtle changes to the track of the low could have an outsized influence on the severe risk. A more easterly track will keep much of the higher theta-e air offshore, likely confining the severe risk to the immediate coastal areas and the NC Outer Bank. However, a more westerly track, even by just 50-75 miles, could place significantly more land area within the warm sector, particularly across eastern NC. Shear across the warm sector is expected to be very strong, supported by robust low to mid-level southeasterly flow east of the center of the deepening cyclone. The warm sector will likely feature low to mid 60s dewpoints, but surface heating will be minimal and mid-level lapse rates will be poor, owing to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Even so, the very strong large-scale forcing for ascent associated with this system will likely lead to the development of narrow, but strongly forced convective line. Current expectation is for this line to impact land areas from northeastern SC across eastern NC and the Outer Banks. Primary threat within this line would be damaging wind gusts, but a brief tornado or two is also possible. A low-probability severe threat may linger during the morning hours farther south over the FL Peninsula. Here, some deep convection is still possible along the primary surface trough before it moves offshore. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. Primary severe hazard is damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface low likely over the northern FL/southeast GA vicinity early Sunday morning is forecast to undergo robust deepening throughout the day at it moves rapidly northward. This low is expected to further occlude during this period as well, particularly from Sunday evening onward through early Monday morning. General expectation is for this low to be in the NJ vicinity by 12Z Monday. Given the orientation of the coastline and largely meridional motion of the low, subtle changes to the track of the low could have an outsized influence on the severe risk. A more easterly track will keep much of the higher theta-e air offshore, likely confining the severe risk to the immediate coastal areas and the NC Outer Bank. However, a more westerly track, even by just 50-75 miles, could place significantly more land area within the warm sector, particularly across eastern NC. Shear across the warm sector is expected to be very strong, supported by robust low to mid-level southeasterly flow east of the center of the deepening cyclone. The warm sector will likely feature low to mid 60s dewpoints, but surface heating will be minimal and mid-level lapse rates will be poor, owing to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Even so, the very strong large-scale forcing for ascent associated with this system will likely lead to the development of narrow, but strongly forced convective line. Current expectation is for this line to impact land areas from northeastern SC across eastern NC and the Outer Banks. Primary threat within this line would be damaging wind gusts, but a brief tornado or two is also possible. A low-probability severe threat may linger during the morning hours farther south over the FL Peninsula. Here, some deep convection is still possible along the primary surface trough before it moves offshore. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the eastern CONUS as a mid-level trough approaches the West Coast tomorrow/Sunday. Cool conditions will overspread much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, with appreciable precipitation accumulations possible over California with the approaching West Coast mid-level trough. As such, significant, widespread wildfire-growth potential appears negligible across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the eastern CONUS as a mid-level trough approaches the West Coast tomorrow/Sunday. Cool conditions will overspread much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, with appreciable precipitation accumulations possible over California with the approaching West Coast mid-level trough. As such, significant, widespread wildfire-growth potential appears negligible across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the eastern CONUS as a mid-level trough approaches the West Coast tomorrow/Sunday. Cool conditions will overspread much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, with appreciable precipitation accumulations possible over California with the approaching West Coast mid-level trough. As such, significant, widespread wildfire-growth potential appears negligible across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the eastern CONUS as a mid-level trough approaches the West Coast tomorrow/Sunday. Cool conditions will overspread much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, with appreciable precipitation accumulations possible over California with the approaching West Coast mid-level trough. As such, significant, widespread wildfire-growth potential appears negligible across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough across the eastern CONUS will encourage rapid surface cyclone development over the Florida Peninsula as surface high pressure becomes established across much of the rest of the U.S. today. Cooler and moister surface conditions atop poorly receptive fuels suggest that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most areas of the CONUS. A weak surface pressure gradient will support some offshore flow across southern California, but the wildfire-spread threat in this region should be tempered by overall weaker surface wind fields. ..Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough across the eastern CONUS will encourage rapid surface cyclone development over the Florida Peninsula as surface high pressure becomes established across much of the rest of the U.S. today. Cooler and moister surface conditions atop poorly receptive fuels suggest that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most areas of the CONUS. A weak surface pressure gradient will support some offshore flow across southern California, but the wildfire-spread threat in this region should be tempered by overall weaker surface wind fields. ..Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough across the eastern CONUS will encourage rapid surface cyclone development over the Florida Peninsula as surface high pressure becomes established across much of the rest of the U.S. today. Cooler and moister surface conditions atop poorly receptive fuels suggest that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most areas of the CONUS. A weak surface pressure gradient will support some offshore flow across southern California, but the wildfire-spread threat in this region should be tempered by overall weaker surface wind fields. ..Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough across the eastern CONUS will encourage rapid surface cyclone development over the Florida Peninsula as surface high pressure becomes established across much of the rest of the U.S. today. Cooler and moister surface conditions atop poorly receptive fuels suggest that significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most areas of the CONUS. A weak surface pressure gradient will support some offshore flow across southern California, but the wildfire-spread threat in this region should be tempered by overall weaker surface wind fields. ..Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat will increase across the Florida Peninsula and Keys, primarily during the latter half of the period. Damaging winds along with some tornado threat are the main risks. ...Florida... Upper trough currently located over the eastern Plains is forecast to advance into the mid MS Valley by late afternoon. As the trough shifts east, midlevel speed max will dig across TX into the western Gulf basin where it will kick a low-latitude short-wave trough northeast toward the FL Peninsula. This low-latitude short wave will be primarily responsible for inducing surface cyclogenesis which will deepen as it tracks across the northern FL Peninsula after midnight. Latest NAM is particularly aggressive with the 850mb response to this feature. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly this evening across the Peninsula, with speeds in excess of 80kt immediately ahead of the surface low track. Intense low-level warm advection will contribute to convection within an environment characterized by poor lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels could yield around 1000 J/kg across southern portions of the Peninsula by late evening where around 70F dew points are expected. Destabilization will be delayed farther north until after midnight, but adequate buoyancy should develop to near the GA border for surface-based updrafts. Very strong deep-layer shear and SRH favor supercells and tornadoes. Have expanded severe probabilities farther north to account for boundary-layer destabilization very late in the period, immediately ahead of the surface low. Damaging winds are also a threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 Read more