Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 12 18:06:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 12 18:06:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards -- including tornadoes -- are possible from parts of east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley area Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the deep cyclonic flow in place across the western CONUS, contributing to the development of a mature mid-latitude cyclone over the northern/central Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with a belt of 100-120 kt 500-mb winds likely stretching from the southern High Plains into the Mid MO Valley on Tuesday afternoon. A deep surface low, resulting from late Monday/early Tuesday cyclogenesis, will likely be near the CO/KS/NE border intersection Tuesday morning. Overall evolution of the system will take this low northeastward across central NE as it occludes. An associated triple point is expected to begin the period near the central KS/OK border before then moving eastward with time. The cold front extending south of this triple point will push eastward throughout the day, likely extending from northwest AR southwestward through the Brazos Valley/central TX Coastal Plain at 00Z Wednesday. Continued eastward progression is anticipated Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, and the front is forecast to extend from the AR/TN border vicinity southwestward into the Lower Sabine River Valley/TX Golden Triangle region 12Z Wednesday. ...Central/East TX eastward into southern/western MS... Synoptic-scale evolution described in the synopsis will contribute to moderate moisture advection across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley ahead of the approaching cold front. Expectation is for line a showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing along the front from southern KS into central TX early Tuesday morning. Low-levels will be moist but relatively cool, contributing to some uncertainty regarding if these early storms will be surface based. Forecast hodographs show large low-level curvature and ample storm-relative helicity (and streamwise vorticity) to support a QLCS tornado threat with any surface-based storms. Robust wind fields and fast storm motion will also contribute to a risk for strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms are expected to continue along the front as it continues eastward into more of east TX and eastern OK, although some weakening may occur as the forcing for ascent becomes displaced farther northward throughout the morning and afternoon. Even so, brief tornadoes and strong gusts will be remain possible. A reinvigoration of storms along and ahead the front is anticipated later during the afternoon and into the early evening as the front moves into the more thermodynamically favorable environment of east TX and western LA. Some of the guidance even hints at a transition to more of a discrete mode across central portions of far east TX and far west-central LA. Vertically veering wind profiles will still be in place, and a more discrete mode would favor supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. One or two strong tornadoes may occur. The general trend for storms both along the cold front and just ahead of it is expected to continue eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The threat for tornadoes and strong wind gusts will continue across the Lower MS Valley, where ample low-level moisture increases the likelihood for surface-based storms. Strong wind gusts are also possible farther north through the Mid-South, where proximity to the triple point and stronger low/mid-level flow will increase the potential for wind gusts capable of penetrating the low-level stable layer expected to be in place. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible tonight from western Kansas across western/central Oklahoma into northwest Texas. ...KS/OK/Northwest TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough rotating eastward across the western states, with an intense 100+ knot mid-level jet max moving into northwest Mexico. This jet will nose into the high plains of eastern NM/CO and western TX/OK/KS tonight. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 50s will spread into much of KS/OK/TX, with 60s as far north as the Red River. This will lead to rapid thunderstorm development after dark. By early evening, the surface dryline is forecast to extend from near AMA northward to west of GLD. Strong large scale forcing associated with the approaching upper jet will overspread the dryline after 03z, leading to rapid convective development. Initial storms will be in limited low-level moisture, but cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may be sufficient for a few intense storms capable of isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado or two. As the evening progresses and the low-level jet intensifies to 50+ knots, the storms along the dryline will become more widespread/organized. Linear convective structures capable of damaging wind gusts and embedded, brief tornadoes are expected. This activity will track eastward across much of western/south-central OK and western North TX through 12z Tuesday morning. ..Hart/Bentley.. 12/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... As a deep mid-level cyclone begins to eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the High Plains. A strong lee low will aid in the development of strong southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front moving across eastern CO and western KS through the afternoon. Widespread gusts of 25-35 mph are possible from southeastern CO into northern NM and western KS. Some downslope component may result in adiabtic drying behind a surface pressure trough lowering afternoon RH values to near 20%. However, cloud cover and increasing moisture will likely keep humidity values marginal. While not overly favorable, suppressed humidity values overlapping with strong surface gusts within modestly dry fuels may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Precipitation and the passage of the cold front will quickly end fire concerns near sunset. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Only minor adjustments were made based on ensemble guidance. The forecast otherwise remains on track. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... As the deep upper trough over the western US continues to strengthen, southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen over the Rockies. At the surface a strong lee low is expected to develop across eastern CO and the central High Plains. With surface pressure falling below 1000 mb by early afternoon, low-level pressure gradients will intensify to the southwest of the surface low ahead of a cold front. In response, south/southwest winds will increase across the Foothills and central and southern High Plains. Widespread gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible through the afternoon. While winds will be strong, increasing moisture is expected to limit surface RH values through the day. A few hours of RH below 25% and overlap with the strong winds will be possible within dry fuels. Thus elevated fire-weather conditions are possible despite more marginal humidity values. Fire concerns will end quickly after sunset as snow and cooler air move over the southern and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 11 18:51:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 11 18:51:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL KS/OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from western and central Kansas and Oklahoma into western north Texas, mainly during the nighttime hours. Hail, strong wind gusts, and a brief tornado will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level cyclone and associated longwave trough are forecast to move eastward from the Intermountain West towards portions of the Great Plains by early Tuesday morning. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the central High Plains, as an attendant cold front begins moving through the southern High Plains late in the period. Meanwhile, an expansive surface ridge is forecast to remain in place over most of the eastern CONUS. ...Western/central KS/OK into western north TX... Despite modest low-level moisture return during the day on Monday, buoyancy is expected to remain very weak through late afternoon. Continued moistening near/above the surface and the arrival of steeper midlevel lapse rates associated with the approaching trough will support MUCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg Monday night from northwest TX into western KS. Increasing large-scale ascent will support increasing thunderstorm coverage from mid/late evening into the overnight hours, with strengthening deep-layer flow/shear becoming favorable for organized convection. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for near-surface-based development during the evening/overnight hours. Cool surface temperatures and late initiation will generally not be supportive of sustained surface-based storms. Low-level moisture return may become sufficient across parts of western north TX into southwest OK for storms to become rooted near the surface. Meanwhile, across parts of western KS, cold midlevel temperatures (500 mb temperatures at or below -20C) could support some increase in MLCAPE and decrease in MLCINH, despite temperatures generally remaining in the low 50s F. In these areas, relatively strong low-level shear/SRH may support a brief tornado threat with any sustained supercell or QLCS development. Otherwise, steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft will support a conditional risk of hail with any stronger storms, though a tendency toward linear convective mode may temper this threat to some extent. Strong low-level flow will support some threat for locally severe gusts as well with any QLCS development, even if convection remains slightly elevated. ..Dean.. 12/11/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... Across the western CONUS, a mid-level trough is forecast to continue to amplify over the Great Basin as strong southwesterly flow begins to overspread the Rockies. As the trough deepens, a lee low is forecast to develop along the southern Rockies in response. Downslope winds are expected to increase through the day occasionally reaching 15-20 mph, especially through local terrain gaps near the Raton Mesa. With above average temperatures and downslope drying, afternoon RH values below 15% will be possible. The combination of dry surface conditions and locally gusty winds should support a few hours of low-end elevated fire weather conditions within dry fuels across portions of southeastern CO and northern NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Fast zonal flow is present today over most of the nation, while a large upper trough deepens over the western states. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of the Gulf Coast states as a cold front sags into the region. Other isolated lightning flashes will be possible over parts of CA/NV beneath the cold upper trough. The severe threat in both areas appears low today. ..Hart/Bentley.. 12/11/2022 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Some locally elevated conditions still appear possible within terrain-favored locations along the Front Range. ..Wendt.. 12/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow across the western CONUS is forecast to amplify as a large trough in the western US undergoes substantial deepening this weekend. Strong southerly flow will overspread the Rockies and Great Basin supporting the development of a surface pressure trough in the lee of the southern/central Rockies. The strongest winds are forecast to remain west of the Continental Divide, but some katabatic flow may allow for downslope winds to increase along the Front Range Sunday afternoon. Dry downslope flow (RH 15-20%) may occasionally reach 15-25 mph through terrain gaps and onto portions of the adjacent High Plains. Fuels remain modestly receptive to fire spread and some locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible in eastern CO and northern NM. However, the temporal and spatial overlap appears too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 10 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 10 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... A line of thunderstorms with locally damaging wind gusts is possible Saturday morning across portions of east Texas, across southern Louisiana and info southwest Mississippi. ...Synopsis... A dampening weak shortwave will move across Louisiana/Mississippi Sunday morning. The passage of this shortwave will help push a surface cold front southward across the region during the day. Farther west, a trough and associated strong mid-level jet will advance inland across the western CONUS with widespread thunderstorm activity associated with the cold air aloft. ...Portions of the east Texas across southern Louisiana and into southwest Mississippi... As a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances east across Texas today (Saturday), a cluster of strong to marginally severe storms is expected to develop. By Sunday morning, an MCS will likely be located somewhere in east Texas/western Louisiana. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, low-level moisture advection off the Gulf should sustain ample instability for some marginal severe threat to continue Sunday morning. However, by mid-day Sunday, the threat is expected to wane as low-level jet support weakens, and the storms move east of the best low-level moisture. A few locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat during the morning hour. A few storms may redevelop later in the day along the cold front, but are not expected to be strong enough to support any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 12/10/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight from central Texas to western Louisiana. ...TX/LA... Strong southwesterly flow aloft is present today from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary extends across the same area, extending from north-central TX into southern AR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect areas along this front throughout the forecast period, as the front sags slowly southward tonight. There is low risk of hail in the strongest storms this afternoon along or north of the front, but limited elevated CAPE should preclude a more organized risk. Later tonight, most CAM solutions show a few discrete cells forming in the open warm sector over southeast TX as a shortwave trough approaches. Sufficient moisture and CAPE will be present for rotating storms, but low-level flow/shear will be relatively weak, suggesting just a Marginal risk of a tornado or damaging wind gust. ..Hart/Dean.. 12/10/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow over the CONUS will remain in place today before a large trough deepens on the West Coast. Shortwave ridging over the central Rockies in the wake of a weak cold front will keep temperatures cool and winds light over much of the Rockies and High Plains through tonight. Surface high pressure over the higher terrain will limit surface winds, but weak downslope flow may occasionally gust to near 15 mph. However, poor overlap of dry and windy conditions should keep fire-weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, zonal flow is forecast to continue across the Rockies and southern High Plains D2/Sat. A shortwave trough will move eastward onto the Plains with shortwave ridging developing over the Rockies through the day. At the surface, a cold front will move out of the higher terrain bringing cooler conditions into eastern CO and western KS. Ahead of the front, weak downslope flow may occasionally gust upwards of 15 mph over modestly dry fuels. While localized fire concerns may exist for a few hours, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is too low to introduce highlights. Elsewhere, fire concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 9 18:30:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 9 18:30:02 UTC 2022.