Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Coastal Carolinas through tonight... A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the eastern CONUS. Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection across FL overnight. Any lingering severe threat will end across southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and vertical shear continues to weaken. The cyclone will skirt the GA coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC tonight. A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will be strong. However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain a shallow stable layer near the coast. Will maintain the outlook area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will be realized inland. ...Northern CA coast... To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated convection. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Coastal Carolinas through tonight... A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the eastern CONUS. Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection across FL overnight. Any lingering severe threat will end across southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and vertical shear continues to weaken. The cyclone will skirt the GA coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC tonight. A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will be strong. However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain a shallow stable layer near the coast. Will maintain the outlook area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will be realized inland. ...Northern CA coast... To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated convection. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Coastal Carolinas through tonight... A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the eastern CONUS. Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection across FL overnight. Any lingering severe threat will end across southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and vertical shear continues to weaken. The cyclone will skirt the GA coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC tonight. A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will be strong. However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain a shallow stable layer near the coast. Will maintain the outlook area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will be realized inland. ...Northern CA coast... To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated convection. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Coastal Carolinas through tonight... A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the eastern CONUS. Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection across FL overnight. Any lingering severe threat will end across southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and vertical shear continues to weaken. The cyclone will skirt the GA coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC tonight. A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will be strong. However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain a shallow stable layer near the coast. Will maintain the outlook area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will be realized inland. ...Northern CA coast... To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated convection. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Coastal Carolinas through tonight... A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the eastern CONUS. Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection across FL overnight. Any lingering severe threat will end across southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and vertical shear continues to weaken. The cyclone will skirt the GA coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC tonight. A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will be strong. However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain a shallow stable layer near the coast. Will maintain the outlook area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will be realized inland. ...Northern CA coast... To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated convection. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Coastal Carolinas through tonight... A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the eastern CONUS. Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection across FL overnight. Any lingering severe threat will end across southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and vertical shear continues to weaken. The cyclone will skirt the GA coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC tonight. A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will be strong. However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain a shallow stable layer near the coast. Will maintain the outlook area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will be realized inland. ...Northern CA coast... To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated convection. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a low-amplitude upper pattern, free of any larger disturbances, and a dry continental air mass will be in place over the CONUS early D4/Wednesday. Some modification of the portion of this air mass over the Plains will begin on D4/Wednesday, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave expected to gradually move across the Southwest. This shortwave will likely interact with the returning low-level moisture late D5/Thursday and early D6/Friday, but buoyancy and shear will be modest, limiting the severe potential. This shortwave will likely continue eastward into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D6/Friday. At the same time, upper low off the southern CA coast is expected to start progressing more eastward, potentially moving across southern CA on D6/Friday and into northern Mexico/Southwest on D7/Saturday. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to be in place over the southern Plains ahead of this wave, but warm mid-level temperatures and resultant poor lapse rates should keep the severe potential low. Read more