Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500 mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today, supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast, supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated thunderstorms. ...Portions of southern New England... The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid 60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New England to address the conditional damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500 mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today, supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast, supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated thunderstorms. ...Portions of southern New England... The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid 60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New England to address the conditional damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023 Read more

MD 2336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2336 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 180253Z - 180400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any storms along the NC coast that can ingest surface-based buoyancy. A Tornado Watch is being issued. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to approach the NC/SC coastline, with an effective warm front established roughly near the NC shore. Regional VADs depict impressively curved/enlarged hodographs over extreme eastern North Carolina. The effective warm front and associated marginally buoyant surface-based parcels have struggled to move far inland over the last several hours, limiting severe potential. However, mid 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints reside along the shore, and it is possible that this better moisture may move further inland of ongoing storms over the next couple of hours. Should this occur, a damaging gust or brief tornado may develop with any of the stronger storms. Given the impressive shear profiles, a new Tornado Watch is being issued given destabilization/convective trends that are possible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 12/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... LAT...LON 34637713 35417696 36047660 36297626 36277589 35917546 35457541 35037571 34727617 34587659 34637713 Read more

WW 0723 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0723 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0723 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0723 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 723 TORNADO NC CW 180255Z - 180700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 723 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 955 PM until 200 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will continue to slowly shift east across eastern North Carolina tonight. A couple of supercells may pose an isolated threat for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Cape Hatteras NC to 70 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 19040. ...Smith Read more

MD 2335 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 722... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 722... Valid 172351Z - 180145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of isolated supercell structures and a brief tornado continues. DISCUSSION...Radar loops continue to show relatively shallow/weak showers and isolated thunderstorms moving ashore across eastern NC. This activity is to the east of a deep surface low centered off the coast near the NC/SC border, in a regime of very strong low-level winds and vertical shear. The VAD profile at ILM is showing a rapidly weakening shear profile/hodograph as the surface low moves east and as a mid-level dry slot approaches, but the VAD at MHX remains very intense with 1km AGL winds over 60 knots. Stronger low-level moisture and instability remains just offshore and may never make it very far inland. But transient supercell structures may develop along the near-shore baroclinic zone, posing a risk of brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Tornado watch 722 is scheduled to expire at 01z. Current indications are that coastal counties of far-eastern NC may need to remain in a watch for a few hours beyond 01z. ..Hart.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 34457808 36117660 35997526 35107547 34417657 33787770 34457808 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border, and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here, conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential. ...Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50 nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The 00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE. However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large, curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-180140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-180140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-180140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-180140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-180140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-180140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-180140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-180140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 722 TORNADO NC CW 171850Z - 180100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will gradually increase this afternoon and into this evening, as locally intense thunderstorms shift north-northeastward across the North Carolina Coastal Plain and Outer Banks area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles northeast of New Bern NC to 30 miles south of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 18040. ...Goss Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 17 23:46:12 UTC 2023.

MD 2334 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 722... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina...far northeast South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 722... Valid 172149Z - 172345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of brief tornado risk may persist through early evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows gradual warming as winds veer over the region, but instability remain limited over much of the area. A plume of stronger instability does exist over the ocean, with upper 60s F dewpoints now ahead of the low and not far from the latitude of KMYR and KSUT. The persistent and strong southeasterly winds ahead of the low track will maintain a minimally unstable air mass over eastern NC, where very strong low-level shear will remain. Cooling aloft and lift near the deepening low and midlevel trough, despite the midlevel dry slot, may still yield isolated supercells, perhaps moving onshore with brief tornado risk before interacting with the cooler air mass. ..Jewell.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33417877 33517890 33807909 34337858 34967785 35797709 36227628 36257562 35647529 35207537 34867612 34487649 34627703 34377752 33947781 33727792 33787824 33637846 33417877 Read more