Severe Storms

MD 0073 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas/southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 181853Z - 190000Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and mixed precipitation with rates of 0.05-0.15 in/hr will continue with moderate precipitation over the next several hours. A transition to heavy snow and rates of 1+ in/hr is expected later this evening farther north. DISCUSSION...As of 1840 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis showed a broad area of moderate to heavy precipitation associated with a surface low across the central Plains and Midwest. Recent surface obs across southeastern NE and northeastern KS indicate freezing rain and mixed-phase precipitation is ongoing northeast of the surface low with rates of 0.05 to 0.15 in/hr. Area RAP soundings show moderate warm advection ongoing ahead of the low supporting broad isentropic ascent and slight warming in the 1-3 km layer. 0.5-1 C temperatures in this layer will support moderate to locally heavy mixed-phase precipitation and freezing rain for the next several hours. A transition to snow may develop later this afternoon into the early evening as warm advection weakens and dynamic cooling reduce column temperatures below freezing. However, the best dynamic lift will likely shift north keeping higher snow rates shorter in duration. Farther north across eastern/northern NE/IA, a deeper reservoir of cold air at the surface and drier mid-levels will likely favor a faster transition to all snow coincident with the strongest dynamic lift. Here, brief mixed precip/freezing rain and eventual snow rates greater than 1 in/hr are likely late this afternoon and through the evening hours. ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40039530 39749594 39619684 39639768 39919834 40139842 40429836 40659827 40959793 41369696 42089558 42369492 42489370 42459321 42139263 41509299 41079345 40729402 40039530 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... Moist conditions are expected across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday with dry conditions across the southern Plains. However, winds will be light across this region which will preclude fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... Moist conditions are expected across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday with dry conditions across the southern Plains. However, winds will be light across this region which will preclude fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EAST ARKANSAS...WEST/NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Areas affected...northeast Louisiana...east Arkansas...west/north Mississippi...and far southwest Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 181830Z - 182000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The ongoing severe weather threat is expected to continue eastward this afternoon. Downstream watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection with embedded supercell structures is ongoing across WW 24. These storms are evolving in an environment broadly characterized by modest MLCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) and favorable bulk shear (50-60 kts). A steadily clearing boundary layer ahead of the convection has yielded gradual warming, with surface temperatures in the low to mid 70s F across the region. This has steepened 0-3-km lapse rates slightly, which have increased to around 6 C/km per recent 17z/18z special soundings at SHV and JAN, respectively. Amidst broader moist advection, some boundary-layer mixing is evident in northeast Louisiana and west Mississippi with dewpoints dropping slightly to the low 60s F. This environmental evolution (along with ongoing convective patterns) is expected to yield continued, gradual upscale growth as the system progresses eastward. The primary threats should include a few tornadoes and isolated damaging wind gusts, mainly associated with any embedded supercells and/or more intense mesovortices within the broader convective line. ..Flournoy/Gleason/Grams.. 01/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34228948 33228995 32029087 31539164 31509250 31639290 31999272 32339244 32849216 33279197 33389147 33769119 34309094 34919100 35369087 35518983 35208938 34228948 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible from eastern Indiana through central and northern Ohio on Thursday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low initially over northern MO will move east-northeast to the Lower Great Lakes by early Friday morning. An intense speed max (110 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of a larger-scale trough. A cyclone over north-central IL will become occluded during the period as an attendant front sweeps east across the OH Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast U.S. ...IN/OH... Scattered to widespread showers early Thursday morning in association with a warm-air advection will quickly depart the region by midday. The primary mid-level vorticity lobe will rotate through the base of the trough from the MS River on the MO/IL border east to the IN/OH border during the 15z to 21z period. Cold air advection in the mid levels coupled with some boundary layer heating (via gradual erosion of clouds and insolation) will act to weakly destabilize the airmass from eastern IN into OH. A cluster of low-topped convection will likely develop by early-mid afternoon over IN. Long hodographs indicate fast-moving storms and this activity will likely spread into northern OH by early evening. Severe gusts appear to be the primary severe hazard, but small to marginally severe hail and/or a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out. ...AL/GA... Model guidance continues to indicate a remnant band of convection will continue across the TN/AL/GA vicinity early in the morning. This band will likely weaken/dissipate by late morning as it continues to move into an airmass more hostile for deep convection. Nonetheless, scant instability may yield enough buoyancy for a few flashes of lightning and perhaps a strong gust. The overall threat appears too low to warrant low-severe probabilities at this time. ..Smith.. 01/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible from eastern Indiana through central and northern Ohio on Thursday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low initially over northern MO will move east-northeast to the Lower Great Lakes by early Friday morning. An intense speed max (110 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of a larger-scale trough. A cyclone over north-central IL will become occluded during the period as an attendant front sweeps east across the OH Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast U.S. ...IN/OH... Scattered to widespread showers early Thursday morning in association with a warm-air advection will quickly depart the region by midday. The primary mid-level vorticity lobe will rotate through the base of the trough from the MS River on the MO/IL border east to the IN/OH border during the 15z to 21z period. Cold air advection in the mid levels coupled with some boundary layer heating (via gradual erosion of clouds and insolation) will act to weakly destabilize the airmass from eastern IN into OH. A cluster of low-topped convection will likely develop by early-mid afternoon over IN. Long hodographs indicate fast-moving storms and this activity will likely spread into northern OH by early evening. Severe gusts appear to be the primary severe hazard, but small to marginally severe hail and/or a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out. ...AL/GA... Model guidance continues to indicate a remnant band of convection will continue across the TN/AL/GA vicinity early in the morning. This band will likely weaken/dissipate by late morning as it continues to move into an airmass more hostile for deep convection. Nonetheless, scant instability may yield enough buoyancy for a few flashes of lightning and perhaps a strong gust. The overall threat appears too low to warrant low-severe probabilities at this time. ..Smith.. 01/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SABINE AND LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds remain possible this afternoon from the Sabine Valley to the Mid-South, with more isolated coverage continuing into this evening across the Lower Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. ...Sabine and Lower MS/OH Valleys... Minimal change apparent for this outlook with a broken band of thunderstorms within the warm conveyor ahead of the eastern-moving cold front. The severe threat will likely peak this afternoon from the Sabine Valley into the Mid-South where 60s surface dew points (increasing to the southwest) supports MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. The orientation and track of the shortwave trough over the central Great Plains suggests that mid-level lapse rates will weaken this afternoon, along with increasingly veered low-level flow diminishing hodograph curvature over the southern portion of the convective threat in TX/LA. This will likely maintain STP values in the 1-2 range this afternoon before diminishing later. A few tornadoes appear possible, with the damaging wind threat increasing some as the broken line consolidates into a broader QLCS. Confidence is decreasing with the longevity of an appreciable tornado and wind threat being maintained this evening. Bulk of morning CAM and machine-learning guidance are insistent on diminishing convective intensity towards 00Z, despite strengthening of the south-southwesterly low-level jet. Surface-based instability should eventually become pinched off in the Mid-South through eastern MS after sunset. This setup appears likely to yield a decreasing, but still a persistent low probability wind/brief tornado threat lingering tonight. ...Southeast KS... As the shortwave trough moves east across KS, a small corridor of opportunity for surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates is possible near and east-southeast of the associated surface cyclone, beneath the mid-level dry slot. In the wake of morning rainfall, there may be scant MLCAPE approaching 250 J/kg. This could be barely adequate for a low-topped supercell with small to marginally severe hail and a brief weak tornado possible. ..Grams/Flournoy/Gleason.. 01/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SABINE AND LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds remain possible this afternoon from the Sabine Valley to the Mid-South, with more isolated coverage continuing into this evening across the Lower Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. ...Sabine and Lower MS/OH Valleys... Minimal change apparent for this outlook with a broken band of thunderstorms within the warm conveyor ahead of the eastern-moving cold front. The severe threat will likely peak this afternoon from the Sabine Valley into the Mid-South where 60s surface dew points (increasing to the southwest) supports MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. The orientation and track of the shortwave trough over the central Great Plains suggests that mid-level lapse rates will weaken this afternoon, along with increasingly veered low-level flow diminishing hodograph curvature over the southern portion of the convective threat in TX/LA. This will likely maintain STP values in the 1-2 range this afternoon before diminishing later. A few tornadoes appear possible, with the damaging wind threat increasing some as the broken line consolidates into a broader QLCS. Confidence is decreasing with the longevity of an appreciable tornado and wind threat being maintained this evening. Bulk of morning CAM and machine-learning guidance are insistent on diminishing convective intensity towards 00Z, despite strengthening of the south-southwesterly low-level jet. Surface-based instability should eventually become pinched off in the Mid-South through eastern MS after sunset. This setup appears likely to yield a decreasing, but still a persistent low probability wind/brief tornado threat lingering tonight. ...Southeast KS... As the shortwave trough moves east across KS, a small corridor of opportunity for surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates is possible near and east-southeast of the associated surface cyclone, beneath the mid-level dry slot. In the wake of morning rainfall, there may be scant MLCAPE approaching 250 J/kg. This could be barely adequate for a low-topped supercell with small to marginally severe hail and a brief weak tornado possible. ..Grams/Flournoy/Gleason.. 01/18/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed to the ongoing Elevated or Critical areas. Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows clear skies over much of western/central TX and rapidly eroding clouds along the eastern edge of the Critical area (in the wake of the cold front). As a midlevel jet/dry-slot (evident in water vapor imagery) continues overspreading the risk area, efficient boundary-layer heating/mixing and strengthening westerly surface winds (sustained 25-30 mph with 35-40 mph gusts) are expected. These conditions will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across much of western and central TX this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify as it crosses the central Plains today. A surface low will move from the TX/OK Panhandle into Missouri today with a cold front moving across eastern Oklahoma and Texas. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions will develop as deep mixing commences beneath a very strong mid-level jet. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. ERC values are now around the 70-80th percentile and fine fuels remain dry and dormant. Therefore, a threat for large fires will exist across much of West and central Texas today. Dry and windy conditions will persist farther west into New Mexico, but temperatures will drop into the 40s across this region which will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed to the ongoing Elevated or Critical areas. Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows clear skies over much of western/central TX and rapidly eroding clouds along the eastern edge of the Critical area (in the wake of the cold front). As a midlevel jet/dry-slot (evident in water vapor imagery) continues overspreading the risk area, efficient boundary-layer heating/mixing and strengthening westerly surface winds (sustained 25-30 mph with 35-40 mph gusts) are expected. These conditions will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across much of western and central TX this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will amplify as it crosses the central Plains today. A surface low will move from the TX/OK Panhandle into Missouri today with a cold front moving across eastern Oklahoma and Texas. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions will develop as deep mixing commences beneath a very strong mid-level jet. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. ERC values are now around the 70-80th percentile and fine fuels remain dry and dormant. Therefore, a threat for large fires will exist across much of West and central Texas today. Dry and windy conditions will persist farther west into New Mexico, but temperatures will drop into the 40s across this region which will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... Only minor adjustments were made to the outlook based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Critical highlights were expanded on the eastern and western edges slightly, where any early-day precipitation should be limited per the latest HREF QPF fields. With critical meteorological conditions expected over these areas, the expansion is warranted. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with an expansive area of critical conditions expected over much of central and northwest TX. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Plains on Wednesday. A lee cyclone will deepen across southeast Colorado and move along the Oklahoma/Kansas border during the day. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to strengthening surface winds across much of the southern Plains. The strongest winds are expected in the wake of the cold front, where deeper mixing is expected. Therefore, some stronger mid-level flow will reach the surface with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph expected. In addition, this region is where the lowest relative humidity is expected, particularly directly behind the cold front where temperatures will remain somewhat higher initially. Additionally, the eastern extent of the threat will likely be mitigated by some precipitation which is expected Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The eastern Elevated/Critical delineation is currently where wetting rain is most likely. However, this will likely change as the precipitation forecast becomes more clear. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 17 18:03:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 17 18:03:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of ejecting into the southern Plains early Wednesday. This feature is expected to strengthen through the period. A mid-level jet of near 100 kts is expected to evolve within parts of the Mid-South and into the lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system will initially be located in southwestern Kansas. This low will move northeastward along with its parent trough. A secondary, weaker surface low is also forecast to develop in the lower Ohio Valley later in the day. A Pacific cold front will generally be the focus for convection across the Mid-South into the Southeast. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of the boundary as wind fields intensify. ...East TX...Lower/Mid MS Valley...TN Valley...Southeast... Some early convection appears possible in parts of the region, though modest capping should limit the overall extent of this early activity. Some guidance does depict more isolated/cellular activity ahead of the front by late morning. However, stronger cooling aloft will be offset from this activity and updrafts may struggle to maintain intensity. By the afternoon, stronger forcing and some surface heating will allow stronger storms to develop along the cold front. Lapse rates aloft are expected to be moderate (around 7-7.5 C/km) which will limit overall buoyancy to 500-1000 J/kg in most areas. Strong shear will support organized storms. Wind damage is expected to be the primary hazard, but a couple tornadoes also appear possible given the enlarged low-level hodographs present. Areas of eastern Arkansas/northwest Mississippi/western Tennessee will have the best overlap of buoyancy and forcing which could lead to a local maximum in wind damage potential. ...Lower Ohio Valley... Despite more limited instability/buoyancy, very strong wind fields at low/mid-levels will promote wind damage potential with strongly forced convection. The risk for wind damage will quickly drop off with northward/eastward extent. ...Parts of eastern Kansas... Very cold temperatures aloft will be present beneath the upper low. Moisture is expected to be quite limited and storm initiation is not certain. However, profiles would support some risk for at least small hail if convection can develop. ..Wendt.. 01/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will deepen as it moves east across the southern Rockies into the southern/central High Plains by early morning, with a lee surface cyclone anchored over southeast CO before shifting into southwest KS late. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening within the zone of ascent preceding the shortwave trough, mainly over the Four Corners area. This regime will spread into the central Great Plains tonight, where scant elevated buoyancy should support sporadic lightning activity. Farther southeast, low-level warm theta-e advection should support elevated thunder potential late in the period in the eastern OK/northeast TX/western AR vicinity. An increasingly elongated, straight-line hodograph within the cloud-bearing layer does yield concern for hail production. While small hail looks plausible, meager buoyancy through 12Z will mitigate a severe hail highlight. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/17/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... While fire-weather concerns are generally low for today, at least locally elevated conditions are possible over the TX Trans-Pecos region, with a focus over the Big Bend this afternoon. Here, low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen in advance of a large-scale trough -- favoring downslope warming/drying and 15-20 percent RH despite lingering cloud coverage. These dry conditions, coupled with 15-20 mph southwesterly surface winds in the vicinity of a developing lee trough, will support locally elevated conditions given modestly dry fuels. However, these conditions appear too marginal/localized for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Cool/moist conditions will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday which will keep fire weather concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWEST IL AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and marginally severe hail will be possible in a portion of eastern Iowa to northwest Illinois through sunset. Marginally severe hail and wind will also be possible over the southern Great Basin into early evening. ...20z Update... Only minor changes to the 10 percent general thunder line in the Midwest have been made with the 20z Update. A low potential for a low-topped supercell will continue across east-central IA into northwest IL the next 2-3 hours. Current convection is occurring ahead of the axis of modest surface-based instability. However, additional cells may develop within narrow wedge of instability with time. The risk will rapidly diminish beyond 23-00z as boundary-layer cooling ensues. Additional isolated strong storms may produce sporadic hail and strong gusts across parts of the southern Great Basin into this evening. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023/ ...Eastern IA and northwest IL... Favorable wind profiles for low-topped supercells will be present in the southeast quadrant of a 994-mb surface cyclone tracking from southwest to northeast IA. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 50s to low 60s in a confined corridor centered on LWD-CDJ before broadening across central MO, with relatively ample insolation beneath the mid-level dry slot. The 12Z NAM and most HREF members appear much too cool within the thermal axis compared to 16Z observations. The RAP/HRRR-based guidance appear closer to reality but may be a bit too moist given an even narrower corridor of low 50s surface dew points from southwest to north-central MO. But further mixing and poleward moisture advection may be just enough, given the mid-level cold pocket of -22 to -24 C at 500 mb, to support meager MLCAPE approaching 500 J/kg towards mid-afternoon. While it is plausible that convection may fail to adequately intensify this afternoon, observational trends along with HRRR/RRFS guidance suggest the threat for a couple brief tornadoes and marginally severe hail is large enough to warrant low severe probabilities. Convection will subside quickly after sunset as it outpaces the narrow plume of weak surface-based instability. ...Southern Great Basin... A shortwave impulse centered over central CA will move east into the southern Great Basin through this evening. Ascent ahead of this wave appears favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle to support at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. However, abundant cloud coverage suggests surface warming will be limited. Nevertheless, the presence of surface dew points in the 40s should still yield meager buoyancy with MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. Combined with effective shear near 40 kts, the setup could support a couple updrafts with weak mid-level rotation. Marginally severe hail and wind appear to be the primary threats. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 16 19:47:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone is expected to form across southeast Colorado on Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to strengthening winds across the southwest and southern High Plains. However, relative humidity is expected to remain above 30 percent across the region except for near the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Therefore, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The Elevated area was expanded southward into central TX, where confidence in the development of around 25 percent minimum RH has increased for this afternoon. These RH reductions should be aided by gradually strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies and at least modest boundary-layer mixing into dry air evident in the 1-3-km layer (sampled by the observed 12Z FWD sounding and latest DAL ACARS soundings). Gradually veering surface winds and increasing temperatures over the area are indicating the onset of this mixing. With 30-40 kt of flow also sampled in the lowest 3 km, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected amid the low RH during peak heating. Given dry fuels across the area, elevated conditions are anticipated. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly flow will occur across a large portion of the southern Plains today in the wake of a cold front as a surface low moves into the Midwest. The strongest winds are expected from southeast New Mexico to central Texas beneath the strongest mid-level flow. However, some moisture will remain across this region and therefore, low relative humidity is not expected. Farther north, a drier airmass is expected, particularly where downslope flow is most prominent. Therefore, a narrow area of overlap between dry and breezy conditions is expected near the Red River where Elevated fire weather concerns are anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more