Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire-weather concerns are expected over the CONUS D2/Wednesday. Locally dry conditions are possible over parts of the Southeast beneath strong high pressure. While RH may fall below 30% at times, relatively cool temperatures and weak winds will not favor widespread fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere over the CONUS, abundant precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected, and fire-weather potential is low. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist from the Plains states eastward to the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough meanders off of the coast of California tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to dominate west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, as on Day 1. Low-level moisture return across the Plains states, driven by surface lee troughing, will also dampen significant wildfire-spread potential as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire-weather concerns are expected over the CONUS D2/Wednesday. Locally dry conditions are possible over parts of the Southeast beneath strong high pressure. While RH may fall below 30% at times, relatively cool temperatures and weak winds will not favor widespread fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere over the CONUS, abundant precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected, and fire-weather potential is low. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist from the Plains states eastward to the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough meanders off of the coast of California tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to dominate west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, as on Day 1. Low-level moisture return across the Plains states, driven by surface lee troughing, will also dampen significant wildfire-spread potential as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible today across parts of central and northern California. ...Discussion... Broad/low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, in the wake of a trough shifting eastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region and New England. In the West, an eastern Pacific low will continue shifting southeastward, with only a glancing influence across the West Coast states. However, this glancing influence will be enough to keep mid-levels relatively cool, and thus maintain very weak instability across this region. As such, sporadic lightning strikes will remain possible -- mainly across portions of northern and central California through tonight. Elsewhere, with the eastern U.S. surface cold front already offshore, and cool/stable high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeastern US... Surface high pressure over the eastern US will support a cool, but dry air mass over parts of the southeastern states today. Although afternoon humidity may occasionally reach below 30%, light winds and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more