Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted Wednesday morning across the southern High Plains and move northeast to near the Ozarks by 06Z Thursday. A surface low will develop along a front in eastern Texas Wednesday morning and deepen as it moves northward into the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... As the surface low deepens during the day Wednesday, low-level flow will strengthen and advect moisture northward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Mid 60s dewpoints may advect as far north as southern Arkansas/northern Mississippi by Wednesday evening. The warm sector will be mostly capped Wednesday morning, but inhibition is expected to erode by mid day as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the advancing trough. Despite the uncapped warm sector, most CAM guidance has limited convection across Louisiana during the day. The ECMWF has more widespread convection Wednesday afternoon and seems like the more likely solution given the height falls and the uncapped warm sector by early afternoon. However, these storms may remain more multi-cellular and only marginally severe as warm sector effective shear is only expected to be 20-25 knots during the day. Most guidance shows a low-level wave moving northward across the western Gulf tomorrow afternoon. This can be seen in both PWAT and 850mb wind fields and appears to be the impetus for western Gulf convection, apparent on most guidance. As this feature moves into eastern Louisiana/western Mississippi Wednesday evening, expect a more concentrated convective risk to develop along the I-20 corridor from eastern Louisiana to central Mississippi. Most guidance shows the low-level jet strengthening from 35 to 55 knots between 23Z and 04Z which will elongate hodographs across the warm sector. During this period, convergence is forecast to increase along the cold front and ascent associated with the mid-level trough is expected to overspread the warm sector. A greater tornado threat could persist from evening to early overnight, both from any pre-frontal supercells and any line embedded supercells/QLCS vorticies associated with the front. Damaging winds will also be possible with the developing squall line during this period as some residual instability remains before this line moves east of the better instability after 06Z near the Alabama/Mississippi Line. Given the strong wind field, some marginal severe wind threat could persist into Alabama early Thursday morning, but limited instability should mitigate a greater threat. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across portions of east Texas. ...East Texas... Thunderstorms, including a couple of strong to severe storms, are expected to overspread portions of the TX Gulf Coast and east TX through the late evening and overnight hours as a cold front migrates east. Mid-morning surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing with mid to upper 60s dewpoints spreading across the TX coastal plain. This moisture will gradually shift northward into east TX during the evening/overnight hours as a surface low gradually deepens across north-central TX along a migratory surface cold front. Synoptic ascent associated with an approaching upper wave (noted over southern NM in water-vapor imagery) will largely be displaced behind the front over the next 24 hours. This ascent, combined with broad mid-level isentropic ascent over the southern Plains, will likely result in widespread stratiform precipitation with embedded elevated convection over much of central to northeast TX. Surface-based convection will most likely be focused along the cold front this evening/tonight across the TX coastal plain into east TX, coincident with the higher-quality moisture. Warm 850-700 mb temperatures (noted in 12 UTC RAOBS across southern TX) may modulate updraft intensities; however, increasing kinematic fields during the 06-12 UTC period will elongate hodographs and may support a couple of more robust, organized cells capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Moore/Goss.. 02/07/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today/Tuesday, as cool surface temperatures accompanying an expansive continental polar airmass overspread much of the western and central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears minimal. ...Synopsis... The forecast remains on track with minimal lightning potential across the CONUS today and tonight. ..Bentley.. 02/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential remains low for today. Despite hints of moisture return into the southern Plains ahead of an upper-wave and attendant cold front, poor lapse rates aloft will limit buoyancy and overall thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two is possible across parts of the Four Corners where cold temperatures aloft overlaid with mid-30s surface temperatures may support sufficient instability for shallow convection. However, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears minimal. ...Synopsis... The forecast remains on track with minimal lightning potential across the CONUS today and tonight. ..Bentley.. 02/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential remains low for today. Despite hints of moisture return into the southern Plains ahead of an upper-wave and attendant cold front, poor lapse rates aloft will limit buoyancy and overall thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two is possible across parts of the Four Corners where cold temperatures aloft overlaid with mid-30s surface temperatures may support sufficient instability for shallow convection. However, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain below 10%. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 6 19:58:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 6 19:58:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns should generally be minimal on Day 2/Tuesday, as cool surface temperatures accompanying an expansive continental polar airmass overspread much of the western and central CONUS. Across southern CA, continued dry/breezy offshore flow is expected along the southern periphery of the surface anticyclone. However, fuels should generally be unreceptive given substantial precipitation over the last month. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening and overnight across portions of east/southeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A positively-tilted, mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern High Plains on Tuesday. Tuesday night, this trough will start to become negatively-tilted which will increase mass response and low-level flow across east Texas. At the surface, an area of low pressure will deepen and move toward northeast Texas as a cold front advances southeast. ...Southeast and East Texas... Low-level moisture will stream north across east Texas on Tuesday, but heating should be limited due to expansive cloud cover. Warm mid-level temperatures will therefore keep the atmosphere mostly capped through the day. Tuesday evening and into the overnight period, mid-level temperatures begin to cool as the upper-level trough moves east and becomes more negatively tilted. This should make thunderstorms more likely late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning in a region of strengthening isentropic ascent across east Texas. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show a capped warm sector which should limit most storm development away from the cold front which is expected to remain in east Texas prior to 12Z Wednesday. The 12Z NAM is now slower with the surface low development, following the trend of both the ECMWF and GFS. Therefore, the conditional threat across Louisiana during the Day 2 period is unlikely and therefore, the marginal risk has been removed. Updraft strength will likely remain limited due to weak instability (~500 J/kg) and only modest shear (~30 knots). The stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain north of the cold front Tuesday night. However, greater instability, potentially as high as 1000 J/kg, is possible farther south where a few stronger storms could occur. Relatively weak thermodynamic profiles and modest shear should preclude the hail threat with damaging wind gusts as the primary concern through 12Z Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening and overnight across portions of east/southeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A positively-tilted, mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern High Plains on Tuesday. Tuesday night, this trough will start to become negatively-tilted which will increase mass response and low-level flow across east Texas. At the surface, an area of low pressure will deepen and move toward northeast Texas as a cold front advances southeast. ...Southeast and East Texas... Low-level moisture will stream north across east Texas on Tuesday, but heating should be limited due to expansive cloud cover. Warm mid-level temperatures will therefore keep the atmosphere mostly capped through the day. Tuesday evening and into the overnight period, mid-level temperatures begin to cool as the upper-level trough moves east and becomes more negatively tilted. This should make thunderstorms more likely late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning in a region of strengthening isentropic ascent across east Texas. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show a capped warm sector which should limit most storm development away from the cold front which is expected to remain in east Texas prior to 12Z Wednesday. The 12Z NAM is now slower with the surface low development, following the trend of both the ECMWF and GFS. Therefore, the conditional threat across Louisiana during the Day 2 period is unlikely and therefore, the marginal risk has been removed. Updraft strength will likely remain limited due to weak instability (~500 J/kg) and only modest shear (~30 knots). The stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain north of the cold front Tuesday night. However, greater instability, potentially as high as 1000 J/kg, is possible farther south where a few stronger storms could occur. Relatively weak thermodynamic profiles and modest shear should preclude the hail threat with damaging wind gusts as the primary concern through 12Z Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears minimal. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential remains low for today. Despite hints of moisture return into the southern Plains ahead of an upper-wave and attendant cold front, poor lapse rates aloft will limit buoyancy and overall thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two is possible across parts of the Four Corners where cold temperatures aloft overlaid with mid-30s surface temperatures may support sufficient instability for shallow convection. However, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain below 10%. ..Moore/Goss.. 02/06/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current observations show clear skies across the southern High Plains, with diurnal heating and associated boundary-layer mixing currently supporting RH dipping to 25 percent amid 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. By afternoon peak heating, RH may drop to 15 percent in spots as sustained winds remain in the 15-25 mph range, as also suggested by the consensus of the latest suite of model guidance. As such, Elevated highlights remain in place for portions of the southern High Plains, with brief instances of locally Critical conditions also possible. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface low will briefly deepen over the central High Plains, before an attendant cold front sweeps southward across the southern High Plains into the evening hours. Along the southern periphery of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will extend from the TX Trans-Pecos/eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles. Deep boundary-layer mixing amid strong downslope warming/drying through this corridor will yield 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. This combination will support elevated fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fuels across the southern High Plains. During the evening/overnight hours, a northerly wind shift and modest RH recovery will overspread the risk area behind the Pacific cold front. Farther west, dry/breezy offshore flow is expected over parts of southern CA into Tuesday morning, as surface high pressure builds over the Great Basin. With that said, substantial precipitation during the last month and generally unreceptive fuels should mitigate the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Feb 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous outlook below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper-level trough will take on a positive tilt as it moves slowly eastward across the western CONUS. Downstream of the trough, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains, while a lee surface low deepens over the central Plains. In response, a corridor of 15-20 mph (locally higher) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the TX Trans-Pecos/eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Deep boundary-layer mixing coupled with downslope warming/drying through this corridor will yield 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels across the southern High Plains, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions can be expected. During the evening/overnight hours, a Pacific cold front will sweep southward across the risk area, bringing a northerly wind shift and a continuation of gusty winds with modest RH recovery. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 5 19:34:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 5 19:34:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Sun Feb 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. No changes were made to the previous outlook. ..Jewell.. 02/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... The potential for severe thunderstorms remains low for today. Mid-morning water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper ridge over the Rockies/Plains flanked by broad troughs across the eastern CONUS and West Coast. At the surface, a weak low is noted in visible imagery near Lake Okeechobee in southern FL. This feature is expected to deepen through the afternoon as it meanders east towards the FL coast. Ongoing convection along the southeastern FL coast will largely remain offshore, though additional convection is possible in the vicinity of the surface low this afternoon. 40-50 knot upper-level winds were sampled by regional 12 UTC RAOBS, but increasing westerly flow in the low-levels will limit effective bulk shear values and overall hodograph structure, resulting in limited potential for storm organization. Across portions of CA, cold temperatures aloft sampled in morning soundings, combined with a persistent influx of Pacific moisture, will maintain the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United States on Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will exit the East Coast on Monday while a larger-scale positive-tilt upper trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. A surface ridge will extend from eastern Canada into the USA, resulting in offshore flow over the East Coast and dry trajectories into the Gulf of Mexico. While some low-level moisture return will occur into TX overnight ahead of the upper trough, the air mass will remain strongly capped with little to no instability. As such, thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ..Jewell.. 02/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... The potential for severe thunderstorms remains low for today. Mid-morning water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper ridge over the Rockies/Plains flanked by broad troughs across the eastern CONUS and West Coast. At the surface, a weak low is noted in visible imagery near Lake Okeechobee in southern FL. This feature is expected to deepen through the afternoon as it meanders east towards the FL coast. Ongoing convection along the southeastern FL coast will largely remain offshore, though additional convection is possible in the vicinity of the surface low this afternoon. 40-50 knot upper-level winds were sampled by regional 12 UTC RAOBS, but increasing westerly flow in the low-levels will limit effective bulk shear values and overall hodograph structure, resulting in limited potential for storm organization. Across portions of CA, cold temperatures aloft sampled in morning soundings, combined with a persistent influx of Pacific moisture, will maintain the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours. ..Moore/Goss.. 02/05/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight changes made to the ongoing Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will advance eastward across the western CONUS. As the strong west-southwesterly flow impinges on the central/southern Rockies, surface lee troughing will deepen over the central/southern High Plains. This will favor a corridor of 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) from northeastern NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles. These breezy/gusty winds, coupled with 10-15 percent RH, will yield elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. While elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions are also possible farther north along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, fuels should generally be less receptive to wildfire spread owing to recent snowpack. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 4 20:34:01 UTC 2023.