Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from eastern Kansas into western Missouri this afternoon and early evening. Little change was done to the previous outlook. Scattered low-topped thunderstorms, a few strong to severe, are expected to increase over eastern Kansas this afternoon, and move into western Missouri by early evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 147. ..Jewell.. 02/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023/ ...Eastern KS this afternoon to northern IL tonight... In response to upstream amplification of a midlevel trough over the Great Basin, a downstream shortwave trough over western KS/OK this morning will eject northeastward over MO/IA/IL by early tonight. In the wake of morning rain/clouds, surface heating will contribute to steepening of low-level lapse rates across central/eastern KS this afternoon. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 40s and surface temperatures in the mid 50s, beneath 500 mb temperatures close to -25 C, will result in MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg by mid afternoon across eastern KS. The environment will support low-topped thunderstorm development by mid afternoon in a loose arc or small clusters from south central into eastern KS, immediately in advance of the primary midlevel vorticity center, and on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse rates and drying from the southwest. Forecast soundings show sufficient buoyancy and hodograph length/curvature for some threat of low-topped supercells, with attendant threats for a tornado or two, isolated large hail, and damaging outflow gusts through late afternoon/early evening into west central/northwest MO. This scenario will be quite sensitive to the degree of vertical mixing, with small changes in moisture potentially driving outcome possibilities ranging from no severe to SLGT risk. Some form of the afternoon storm cluster may persist into tonight while spreading northeastward from MO into northern IL. Gusty winds will be possible early tonight with lingering, low-topped convection, but very marginal thermodynamic profiles suggest that severe gusts are unlikely. Read more

MD 0147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Areas affected...Central and eastern Kansas into portions of southeastern Nebraska...northwest Missouri and far southwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141940Z - 142145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped thunderstorm development is expected in the next 1 to 2 hours across portions of central Kansas. Damaging wind gusts, a brief tornado or two and small hail will be possible with any sustained supercells. Conditions will be monitored but a weather watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, afternoon moisture-channel imagery showed a mature upper low centered over southwestern KS. At the surface, strong southerly flow was noted east of a subtle dryline/surface trough southeast of sub 990 mb surface low. Over the last several hours, a mid-level dry slot has allowed for robust diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s F. While not especially moist, mid-level temperatures of -25 C and steep 0-3 km lapse rates were supporting low-level MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg. Gradual deepening of a cumulus field has been noted suggesting residual inhibition is quickly diminishing. Continued heating, low-level convergence and dynamic ascent from the passing upper-level low should allow for isolated storm development beneath the cold core in the next couple of hours. Area RAP soundings show elongated low-level hodographs and adequate buoyancy (500-600 J/kg MLCAPE) to potentially support an isolated low-topped supercell from central KS northeastward toward southeastern NE, northwestern MO, and far southwestern IA. Steep lapse rates below 3 km, along with strong gradient winds and the modest surface moisture may support a risk for a few damaging gusts. A brief tornado or two along with isolated small hail may also be possible given 0-1 km shear in excess of 20 kt. Hi-res guidance suggests the localized severe threat may continue northeastward as the airmass rapidly modifies over the next few hours. Conditions will be monitored, but uncertainty on storm coverage and severity suggests the potential for a weather watch is low. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39719453 38779506 38379523 37909548 37639564 37389593 37259636 37249670 37409690 37679712 37979735 38519763 38909769 40059723 40589643 40929558 40789466 40369428 39719453 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND INTO PARTS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of Texas and Oklahoma beginning late in the day and into the evening on Wednesday. A severe threat will also develop overnight over the lower Mississippi Valley, with tornado risk. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will become positively tilted as it moves east from the Four Corners to the Plains through Thursday morning, with an elongated speed max extending from the base of the trough from the southern Plains across the lower MO Valley and toward Lake Michigan late. Ahead of the trough, an upper high will remain over the Bahamas, with rising heights through 00Z across much of the Southeast. At the surface, low pressure will translate east from NM into OK through 00Z, ahead of a cold front which will surge south into the OK/TX Panhandles. This low is not forecast to deepen, but will continue northeastward ahead of the cold front to the Ozarks by 06Z and lower OH Valley by 12Z Thursday. Southerly surface winds will aid low-level moisture return during the day, with mid 60s F dewpoints common by 00Z over eastern TX and the lower MS Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints are eventually expected to reach the lower OH River/western KY by 12z Thursday, with the more substantial moisture from about Memphis south. Strengthening 850 mb winds over 40 kt will aid moisture transport, with modest instability and strong shear aiding severe potential from TX to the lower MS Valley, primarily after 00Z. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK into western AR... Heating will occur over OK and TX ahead of the cold front and south of the low, steepening lapse rates. Eventually, persistent southerly winds will bring low 60s F dewpoints to the Red River, most likely near or after 00Z. Modestly cool midlevel temperatures and convergence along the front may then be enough to break the cap, resulting in a few severe storms. Supercell wind profiles will exist, favoring large hail. Should the boundary layer moisten sufficiently, a tornado risk could develop. Much of this area appears conditional given mixed CAM signals, late moisture return, relatively late time of day (evening) and potential for capping. In addition, various forecast soundings indicate subsidence in the midlevels. However, stronger heating near the boundary coupled with late moisture return should result in at least isolated storms with hail. ...LA...MS...eastern AR...western TN... Rapid moistening of the boundary layer during the day is expected to lead to clouds and keep temperatures relatively cool. This should minimize the potential for convection through 00Z as a capping inversion will exist at or below 700 mb. Rain and thunderstorms are likely to develop after 03Z over much of AR, northern MS, and western TN, as dewpoints rise into the mid 60s F beneath a 50 kt low-level jet core. After about 06Z, a plume of > 1000 J/kg SBCAPE is forecast to extend from LA into eastern AR, gradually shifting into northwest MS and perhaps western TN. As such, it is possible that initially elevated convection transitions to surface based, which would increase the risk of isolated tornadoes. Better lift along the cold front could become a more favorable focus for supercells with tornado threat into Thursday morning. In general, the lack of a substantial baroclinic zone may mitigate the overall severe risk for much of the period, given cool boundary-layer temperatures. However, effective SRH near 300 m2/s2 will conditionally favor tornadoes with any established supercells that develop late near the MS River. ..Jewell.. 02/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from eastern Kansas into western Missouri this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern KS this afternoon to northern IL tonight... In response to upstream amplification of a midlevel trough over the Great Basin, a downstream shortwave trough over western KS/OK this morning will eject northeastward over MO/IA/IL by early tonight. In the wake of morning rain/clouds, surface heating will contribute to steepening of low-level lapse rates across central/eastern KS this afternoon. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 40s and surface temperatures in the mid 50s, beneath 500 mb temperatures close to -25 C, will result in MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg by mid afternoon across eastern KS. The environment will support low-topped thunderstorm development by mid afternoon in a loose arc or small clusters from south central into eastern KS, immediately in advance of the primary midlevel vorticity center, and on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse rates and drying from the southwest. Forecast soundings show sufficient buoyancy and hodograph length/curvature for some threat of low-topped supercells, with attendant threats for a tornado or two, isolated large hail, and damaging outflow gusts through late afternoon/early evening into west central/northwest MO. This scenario will be quite sensitive to the degree of vertical mixing, with small changes in moisture potentially driving outcome possibilities ranging from no severe to SLGT risk. Some form of the afternoon storm cluster may persist into tonight while spreading northeastward from MO into northern IL. Gusty winds will be possible early tonight with lingering, low-topped convection, but very marginal thermodynamic profiles suggest that severe gusts are unlikely. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 02/14/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z There is still some uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts tonight across the Trans Pecos which could impact the fire weather threat on Tuesday. Slight modifications may be necessary once this becomes more clear, but no changes are needed at this time. ..Bentley/Flournoy.. 02/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level low continues its northeastward progression into the Plains, a deepening surface cyclone across southeastern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle will bring an increase in winds across much of the Central and Southern Plains. In addition, this low will bring precipitation chances to the Plains late Monday into Tuesday. Areas of western Texas may remain mostly dry, with little to no precipitation. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible by the afternoon as minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent overlaps with sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally higher). Within this region, cured grasses will support potential for fire spread. For now, an Elevated delineation has been put into place given uncertainty in Monday night rainfall. A Critical region may need to be added in further updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 13 19:52:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 13 19:52:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears minimal through tonight. No changes were made to the outlook at 20Z. Scattered daytime thunderstorms will remain possible today across AZ and NM as a strong upper trough moves east, and overnight into parts of the southern Plains when a low-level jet increases lift and moisture advection, resulting in weak elevated instability. Very small hail is conceivable tonight in this region given the cold temperature profiles. Elsewhere, shallow convection over western WA and OR will remain possible through early evening north of the midlevel jet/temperature gradient where cold temperatures aloft will contribute to steep lapse rates. Westerly low-level flow and subsequent upslope into the Cascades may also be a focus for lift today. Instability will remain too weak for any severe risk. ..Jewell.. 02/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023/ ...AZ/NM this afternoon into the southern Plains tonight... A closed midlevel low over southwest AZ this morning will eject east-northeastward to the southern High Plains by Tuesday morning, in response to amplification of an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture is somewhat limited this morning across AZ/NM, but steep lapse rates will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon, some of which could produce gusty outflow winds. Downstream from the ejecting midlevel trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur late today into tonight across southeast CO. The lee cyclogenesis will contribute to strengthening southerly flow across the southern Plains and western Gulf basin. However, moisture return into TX will be somewhat limited by a recent frontal intrusion, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to remain primarily in the mid 50s to lower 60s. MUCAPE will likely be limited to a few hundred J/kg by the modest moisture return, as midlevel lapse rates are reduced by ascent/saturation overnight. Forecast soundings do show some low-end potential for strong surface gusts with a forced convective band overnight from northwest TX into southwest OK, but the weak buoyancy rooted above the surface and slightly stable low-level profiles suggest that downward momentum transfer will be sufficiently muted to forgo the addition of damaging wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from eastern Kansas into western Missouri Tuesday afternoon into early evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense shortwave trough will move from the southern and central High Plains Tuesday morning to the mid MS Valley by 00Z, with strong height falls across the region. During this period, a surface low will move from KS into IA, with 50+ kt low-level jet moving from eastern OK/TX across AR, MO, and IL. Instability will be limited due to the early stages of moisture return, with generally sub-50 F dewpoints ahead of the low track. However, cold temperatures aloft combined with daytime heating may result in a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE from eastern KS into western MO during the afternoon. Otherwise, ongoing precipitation will limited destabilization and heating from the ArkLaTex northward into MN. Given midlevel temperatures near -25 C beneath the upper wave, surface temperatures in the 50s F and 40s F dewpoints may be sufficient for a few low-topped storms to develop after 20Z in an arc across eastern KS and into western MO, coincident with the cooling aloft. Supercell wind profiles may support a brief tornado, hail or damaging gust threat. At this time, it appears limited moisture and instability will mitigate the threat somewhat. Elsewhere, a line of low-topped convection may occur along the front extending southward into eastern OK and TX early in the day, moving into AR and LA by afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft this far south along with very little MUCAPE should preclude a severe risk, despite strong low-level wind fields. ..Jewell.. 02/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears minimal through tonight. ...AZ/NM this afternoon into the southern Plains tonight... A closed midlevel low over southwest AZ this morning will eject east-northeastward to the southern High Plains by Tuesday morning, in response to amplification of an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture is somewhat limited this morning across AZ/NM, but steep lapse rates will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon, some of which could produce gusty outflow winds. Downstream from the ejecting midlevel trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur late today into tonight across southeast CO. The lee cyclogenesis will contribute to strengthening southerly flow across the southern Plains and western Gulf basin. However, moisture return into TX will be somewhat limited by a recent frontal intrusion, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to remain primarily in the mid 50s to lower 60s. MUCAPE will likely be limited to a few hundred J/kg by the modest moisture return, as midlevel lapse rates are reduced by ascent/saturation overnight. Forecast soundings do show some low-end potential for strong surface gusts with a forced convective band overnight from northwest TX into southwest OK, but the weak buoyancy rooted above the surface and slightly stable low-level profiles suggest that downward momentum transfer will be sufficiently muted to forgo the addition of damaging wind probabilities. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 02/13/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z Expansive cloud cover is present across much of Far West Texas this morning which has kept temperatures in the 40s with light winds. This cloud cover will stunt heating through much of the morning. However, strengthening downslope flow across northern Mexico will eventually work into this region this afternoon. Some thinning of the mid-level cloud cover is also expected this afternoon which will allow for greater surface heating and deeper mixing. Therefore, winds of 25-30 mph are expected in Far West Texas this afternoon with relative humidity of 18 to 25 percent. Fine fuels in this area should be dry given the lack of recent rainfall which will support some large fire threat. The ongoing Elevated delineation covered the greatest threat area well and therefore, no changes were necessary. A dry, post-frontal airmass is expected from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast today. Winds across Ohio and western Pennsylvania are around 10 to 15 mph and will increase to 15 to 20 mph and spread east as mid-level flow strengthens and mixing deepens in the region. Much of this region has seen significant rainfall recently, but a narrow area in the lee of the Appalachians from northern West Virginia into southern Pennsylvania has been dry in the past month. This same area will have downslope flow today with brief elevated conditions possible. The short duration of this threat precludes the need for an Elevated delineation at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low ejecting out of the Southwest will bring strong mid-level southwesterly flow across the Southern and Central Plains. Across far western Texas, dry and warm downslope flow will lead to the potential for Elevated fire weather conditions by the afternoon. The potential for mid and high-level cloud cover to move across this region overnight into the day Monday have trended upward. Infrared satellite imagery shows the initial band of high clouds has already moved in across Texas and New Mexico. With additional cloud cover, afternoon relative humidity reductions may not be as low as previously advertised, with less heating and vertical mixing. As such, the Elevated risk area was reduced this evening, favoring the regions where HREF probabilities showed the best likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. Deterministic model trends over the last 24 hours also show fairly good agreement with the HREF that Elevated conditions will be most likely within this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Expanded the elevated area slightly farther north and east where dry and breezy conditions are most likely. Some windy conditions now appear more likely farther north across eastern New Mexico and into the TX/OK Panhandles. However, relative humidity is only expected around 20 to 25 percent. Therefore, marginal relative humidity with marginal fuel states from recent rainfall will preclude the need for an Elevated delineation farther north. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low ejecting northeastward out of the Southwest will be accompanied by a strong mid-level jet set to overspread the Sierra Madre and portions of southwest Texas Monday afternoon. Dry and warm downslope flow from Sierra Madre into regions of Southwest Texas west of the Pecos River will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent (locally as low as 15 percent). Sustained winds will be around 15-20 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph possible. ERCs across the region are around the 60-70th percentile. However, cured grasses will support potential for fire spread. Given the potential for stronger winds, localized Critical conditions will be possible. For now, that threat looks to be too isolated to include any Critical areas and an Elevated delineation is appropriate. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 12 19:30:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 12 19:30:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid-level ridging centered over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific may become a bit more suppressed during this period, as short waves begin to a amplify within a prominent belt of westerlies on its northern periphery. Near the leading edge of this regime, it appears that digging larger-scale mid-level troughing will evolve across the Pacific Northwest through northern Great Basin vicinity, as a couple of smaller-scale perturbations progress inland downstream of building mid-level ridging near 140W. As this occurs, a significant mid-level low, initially migrating northeastward near the western Sonora/Arizona border, is forecast to accelerate across the southern Rockies into the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. Downstream, a preceding mid-level low emerging from the Southwest likely will accelerate east-northeastward, away from the Mid Atlantic coast, ahead of another short wave trough digging east-southeast of the Upper Great Lakes region. In response to these developments, a cold front, trailing the surface cyclone accompanying the lead mid-level low, is expected to stall and weaken across the Bahamas/Caribbean/into western Gulf of Mexico vicinity. And the center of cold surface ridging likely will shift from the northern Gulf coast vicinity into the Southeast, while surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. A moistening boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico will begin to advect northward on a developing southerly return flow. However, in the wake of the recent cold intrusion, boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points in excess of 55 F may not reach areas north of Deep South Texas until Monday night, and it appears that this will be mostly beneath warm, dry and capping lower/mid tropospheric layers. ...Pacific Coast into Great Plains... Weak destabilization beneath mid-level cold pools, including 500 mb temperatures near or below -30C, may contribute to scattered convective development which may become capable of producing lighting across parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwestern Deserts into the southern Rockies Monday into Monday night. East of the Rockies, it appears that warm, dry lower/mid tropospheric layers will largely inhibit thunderstorm development in association with the boundary-layer moistening accompanying the Gulf return flow. Based on NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, the extent to which moistening (of lower latitude eastern Pacific origins) aloft can contribute to destabilization supportive of convection capable of producing lightning also remains rather unclear. At this point, forecast soundings which might become marginally conducive to scattered weak thunderstorm development seem mostly confined to portions of the Texas South Plains and Big Country, near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling associated with the low emerging from the Southwest. ..Kerr.. 02/12/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z Winds of 15 to 20 mph with dewpoints in the upper teens are already being observed across the TX/OK Panhandles and into western Oklahoma. As temperatures warm, elevated fire weather conditions are expected and should persist through the afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave advancing across the Central Plains on Sunday will bring increased west to northwesterly flow across portions of Oklahoma and Texas. Afternoon winds sustained around 10-15 mph (gusting up to 25 mph) will coincide with a region of afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-25 percent. Given the dry and breezy conditions on Saturday, a lack of recent precipitation, and expected sustained dry and windy conditions on Sunday, fuels will likely become modestly receptive to fire spread. As such, an Elevated delineation is appropriate across the Texas Panhandle northward into central Oklahoma. Within this region, the HREF ensemble shows around a 70 percent chance of Elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through midday over the Tidewater region of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and late tonight in parts of Arizona. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low and associated surface cyclone will move across the Carolinas today and offshore by tonight. The unstable surface warm sector is already confined to offshore waters east of the Outer Banks, though some elevated convection with isolated lightning flashes will still be possible today across northeastern NC/southeastern VA. Farther west, another closed low will move east-southeastward toward northern Baja and the lower CO River Valley. Low-midlevel moisture will remain limited with this system, though the combination of midlevel cooling and modest moistening of the column may become sufficient for the development of weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes in southwest AZ. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 02/12/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is still possible across parts of northern Florida late this afternoon and evening. A couple of these could become severe and pose a risk for producing locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20Z Update... Latest model output suggests that the modest surface cyclone over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (and approaching the Panama City/Apalachicola vicinity at 20Z) may deepen a bit further, while occluding and migrating inland across the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia and adjacent portions of Alabama late this afternoon and evening. It is possible that the point of occlusion could provide a focus for intensifying thunderstorm development near/north of Gainesville toward the Jacksonville vicinity by early evening. However, cloud cover and precipitation from the remnants of weakening convection spreading off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico continues to inhibit boundary-layer destabilization across much of northern Florida into southern Georgia, where vertical shear profiles near a strengthening southerly 850 mb jet (40-50+ kt) are becoming potentially conducive to supercells. Otherwise, a pre-cold frontal convective band offshore of coastal areas to the north of Tampa might still intensify a bit during the next couple of hours as it approaches the coastal waters. This activity could pose a risk for strong wind gusts, but the lingering more stable boundary-layer over the coastal waters probably will tend to weaken the stronger storms embedded within the band, as they migrate inland by early this evening. Thereafter, secondary frontal wave development near and east-northeast of Georgia coastal areas probably will become the primary focus for convective development by the 01-03Z. Strong storms are still expected to remain confined to the better boundary-layer instability over the offshore waters. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... An active mid-level flow regime is expected to continue across the CONUS through the forecast period with several large-scale features of interest. Morning water-vapor imagery showed two deepening upper lows; one over the central CA Coast, with a second over eastern TX and southwestern LA moving southeastward into the northern Gulf Of Mexico. Associated height falls and diffluent flow aloft already are underway over the northern Gulf and most of the mainland Southeast, and will spread eastward, with the upper low, to the southern Atlantic Coast this evening/overnight. At the surface, a frontal wave tied to a cold front over the Gulf will translate northeastward, deepening into an established surface cyclone across the western FL panhandle and southern AL tonight. A warm front observed over the central Peninsula should gradually lift north with the surface low drawing mid 60s F surface dewpoints north through this afternoon. ...Northern FL into far southern GA... Morning radar and visible imagery showed widespread cloud debris and precipitation ongoing north of the surface warm front analyzed north of Tampa to near KEVB. Additional convection over the eastern Gulf should spread northeastward toward the FL Panhandle and western coast as the low deepens. Some uncertainty with diurnal destabilization remains given the extent of cloud debris over FL and additional storms farther west. However, clear skies and surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F should gradually expand northward as evidence by wind gradually veering near the front over the last couple of hours. Though lapse rates from the 12z RAOBS remain weak, around 6 C/km, adequate heating and moistening should support 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE development through the afternoon along with weak MLCINH. Strong mid-level flow ahead of the deepening upper low should also support 40-50 kt of effective shear across the northern third of FL as evidence by area RAP soundings. Enlarging low-level hodographs with backed low-level flow may also support storm scale rotation with 100-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Should sufficient destabilization continue this afternoon, the favorable CAPE/shear space may support organized storms including a few supercells and short line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. Given the weak MLCINH environment, CAMs show numerous potential storm interactions which may limit the duration of any sustained organized storms. Confidence in severe potential decreases with southern extent as the main synoptic forcing for ascent is expected to pass farther north, focused near the FL/GA line later this evening. However, at least isolated severe potential may develop within the unstable but more modestly sheared airmass farther south near the Atlantic Coast. Here, more isolated convection may develop along remnant outflow and seabreaze boundaries, with some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 11 20:19:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 11 20:19:01 UTC 2023.