Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Breezy west to northwest flow will develop across portions of the southern Plains on Friday afternoon as a surface anticyclone shifts eastward into the central US. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent and sustained winds around 15-20 mph will be possible within a narrow corridor over south Texas from the Edwards Plateau south to the Rio Grande, supporting an Elevated delineation. Locally critical conditions will be possible for an hour or two, mainly within the northern third of the current D1 Elevated. Given the short duration and marginal state of fuels, the Elevated delineation covers the threat appropriately. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight across north Florida and southeast Georgia. ...North FL/southeast GA through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the southern Plains, and evolve into a closed low over southeast TX by Saturday morning. Clusters/bands of thunderstorms are expected to persist through the forecast period, primarily along a slow-moving front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across north FL/southeast GA where low-level ascent will be focused. There will be sufficient deep-layer flow/shear (relatively straight hodographs) for some storm organization, while midlevel lapse rates will be modest (close to 6.5 C/km) with surface heating/mixing and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s supporting MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Low-level flow/mass response will remain weak through most of the day 1 period, since cyclogenesis will likely be delayed until the day 2 period. Overall, the environment appears marginal for severe storms, with a low-end threat for embedded line segments and/or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage and perhaps a brief/weak tornado. ...Northern/central CA coast later today into tonight... Gradual evolution from an open wave to a closed low is expected with the midlevel trough that will move southeastward near the northern/central CA later today into tonight. Some shallow convection is expected close to the coast, but the magnitude/depth of buoyancy will be marginal for charge separation/lightning production. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 02/10/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible in a corridor from western Georgia into southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle later today. Some storms may produce strong wind gusts. Little change was made to the existing outlook with a minor decrease in probabilities across northern areas of GA where instability will be less. Otherwise, storms may gradually increase after 00Z near the front, where MLCAPE will exceed 250 J/kg with modest shear/southwesterlies aloft. ..Jewell.. 02/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... On the leading edge of an amplified belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging to the lee of the southern Rockies. In its wake, the center of a prominent cold surface ridge will continue to build south-southeastward across the southern Rockies vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion likely reaching the lower Rio Grande Valley by late tonight. A preceding cold front is expected to steadily progress into and across the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of a broad and relatively deep, occluding cyclone. This cyclone is accompanying a significant mid-level impulse forecast to accelerate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley, as an upstream short wave trough digs into the Upper Midwest, and fairly prominent mid-level ridging (centered near the Bahamas) is maintained near/east of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Seaboard. ...Eastern U.S.... A combination of weak/limited low-level moisture return, relatively warm mid-levels with weak lapse rates, and in some areas a residual near-surface stable layer will tend to minimize the risk for thunderstorm development in the warm sector of the surface cyclone. One area where at least some model output (perhaps most notably the Rapid Refresh) suggests that weak boundary-layer destabilization may occur is a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor across the Piedmont of east central Alabama into northern Georgia. It appears that this will largely hinge on sufficient thinning and breaks of current cloud cover, but with some insolation the environment may become conducive to scattered thunderstorm development. If this occurs, downward mixing of 30-50 kt south-southwesterly to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may contribute to a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, with better boundary-layer moisture and instability now generally offshore, weakening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across eastern Gulf coastal areas appear to be leading to diminishing convective potential inland of the coast through the remainder of the period. Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 9 19:47:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 9 19:47:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, while surface high pressure centered over the Great Basin expands eastward over the central CONUS. Along the southeastern periphery of the expansive surface anticyclone, breezy north-northwesterly surface winds will overspread the southern Plains during the afternoon. At the same time, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will yield 20-25 percent minimum RH over parts of South TX and the Hill Country. This combination could support elevated conditions, especially along the Rio Grande, where temperatures should warm into the upper 50s to lower/middle 60s. Given a lack of precipitation over this area, Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible mainly from southern Georgia into northern Florida on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough over the Plains will shift east, breaking into a cut-off low over the lower MS Valley and a progressive shortwave across the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will surge south across the western Gulf of Mexico with a weak surface trough from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Carolinas during the afternoon. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of this surface trough, with ongoing showers and thunderstorms over southern AL, GA and the FL Panhandle Friday morning. Given ongoing precipitation, low-level lapse rates will be poor, and only a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to develop from northern FL into southern GA. Modest deep-layer shear will exist beneath a southwesterly flow regime, which may aid storm longevity in some cases. Overall, the severe risk appears low, but veering winds with height within the weak forcing regime may support a brief/weak tornado or a few strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/09/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified, positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough will advance slowly eastward over the west-central CONUS, while a related cold front moves southeastward from central TX into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Behind the front, breezy/gusty north-northwesterly surface winds will overspread the central/southern Plains during the day. From southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos and South Plains, deep boundary-layer mixing amid downslope warming/drying should yield 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon. While the overlap of dry/breezy conditions over this area could favor locally elevated conditions, the wind/RH overlap appears too brief in any given area for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible in a corridor across the Georgia Piedmont into southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. These may pose a risk for producing locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... On the leading edge of an amplified belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging to the lee of the southern Rockies. In its wake, the center of a prominent cold surface ridge will continue to build south-southeastward across the southern Rockies vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion likely reaching the lower Rio Grande Valley by late tonight. A preceding cold front is expected to steadily progress into and across the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of a broad and relatively deep, occluding cyclone. This cyclone is accompanying a significant mid-level impulse forecast to accelerate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley, as an upstream short wave trough digs into the Upper Midwest, and fairly prominent mid-level ridging (centered near the Bahamas) is maintained near/east of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Seaboard. ...Eastern U.S.... A combination of weak/limited low-level moisture return, relatively warm mid-levels with weak lapse rates, and in some areas a residual near-surface stable layer will tend to minimize the risk for thunderstorm development in the warm sector of the surface cyclone. One area where at least some model output (perhaps most notably the Rapid Refresh) suggests that weak boundary-layer destabilization may occur is a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor across the Piedmont of east central Alabama into northern Georgia. It appears that this will largely hinge on sufficient thinning and breaks of current cloud cover, but with some insolation the environment may become conducive to scattered thunderstorm development. If this occurs, downward mixing of 30-50 kt south-southwesterly to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may contribute to a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, with better boundary-layer moisture and instability now generally offshore, weakening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across eastern Gulf coastal areas appear to be leading to diminishing convective potential inland of the coast through the remainder of the period. ..Kerr/Supinie.. 02/09/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 8 20:31:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST LA AND CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Areas affected...Northeast LA and central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082022Z - 082145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered low-topped supercells have developed in northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. While not imminent, trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A few low-topped supercells with broad mid-level rotation are visible from the KDGX radar. As sampled by mesoanalysis and the KLIX 18Z sounding, these cells are in an environment with weak to moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). In the short term, expect storms to produce some hail and perhaps a damaging gust or two. At the moment, the modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat limited. However, the tornado potential will likely increase into the late afternoon and evening as the mid-level trough approaches the region and low-level/deep-layer shear gradually increase. Watch issuance will probably not be needed in the near term, but trends will be monitored for a watch later this afternoon. ..Supinie/Kerr.. 02/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30978948 30879059 31429137 31999143 32739122 33039068 32979010 32688936 32358895 31658907 30978948 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight, mainly across parts of the lower into middle Mississippi Valley. Some of these will be accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, a couple of which could become strong this evening across parts of eastern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas into western and central Mississippi. A significant uptick in convection has been observed in the last hour along the cold front in eastern Texas, within the moisture plume moving off the Gulf of Mexico, and within the uncapped warm/moist airmass across Louisiana and southern Mississippi. However, these storms are relatively unorganized thus far, owing to the weak shear (~20-25 knots per area VWPs). However, as the trough approaches and shear strengthens this evening, expect more storm organization, including supercells capable of tornadoes. A few tornadoes could be strong as the low-level jet strengthens to around 55 knots, elongating the low-level hodograph and doubling the 0-500m shear (per RAP forecast soundings). Farther north, the forecast remains on track. Low 60s dewpoints are now into western Tennessee, which will advect northward rapidly this evening and overnight as low-level flow strengthens. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The more prominent belt of split mid-latitude westerlies is undergoing considerable amplification across the eastern Pacific into western North America. This will continue through this period, with mid-level ridging building inland of the Canadian and U.S. Pacific coast by late tonight. As this occurs, a vigorous downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig sharply along the Rockies, with mid-level flow ahead of it trending southwesterly and strengthening across the southern Great Plains through the Ohio Valley. A significant mid-level trough/elongating low is already beginning to pivot east of the southern Rockies as it begins to interact with a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. The trough axis is likely to gradually take on an increasingly negative tilt across Oklahoma and Texas during the day today, before accelerating north-northeastward through the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis from near/northwest of the Ark-La-Tex by late this afternoon into areas north-northeast of the St. Louis area by the end of the period. In the wake of a couple of significant recent cold intrusions, boundary modification over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is still underway. Mid/upper 60s surface dew points have advected inland within at least a shallow pre-cold frontal plume across Texas coastal areas into portions of the Piney Woods. A somewhat more substantive influx of Gulf moisture is forecast to overspread the Louisiana coast through much of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. Near the northwestern periphery of mid-level subtropical ridging, centered and becoming a bit more prominent across the Bahamas, mid/upper-levels are relatively warm, and lapse rates might not become particularly steep. However, the development of weak to moderate boundary-layer CAPE still appears probable within the evolving warm sector, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear which is expected to become sufficient for organized convection, including supercells. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Mississippi Valley... The primary mid-level trough may be preceded to its south and southeast by one or two subtropical perturbations, and the influence of associated forcing for ascent on thunderstorm development within the plume of returning moisture, while the boundary-layer attempts to destabilize inland of coastal areas, remains unclear. At the present time, the low-level moisture return associated with the stronger low-level flow (still around 40-50 kt around 850 mb) is tending to be undercut by the eastward advancing cold front, to the south of the developing surface low over northeast Texas. Meanwhile, convection allowing models generally indicate that a considerable amount of convection may commence in the destabilizing warm sector, well ahead of the cold front, across portions of Louisiana into Mississippi this afternoon. This would likely be prior to substantive strengthening of the low-level wind fields and associated hodographs, though the environment could be supportive of at least weak updraft rotation. Depending on the impact of earlier convective development, forcing along and just ahead of the eastward advancing cold front likely will become the focus for increasing vigorous thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening. This probably will including one or two evolving lines, with supercells embedded within and perhaps preceding it. Coupled with strengthening southerly 850 mb flow along a corridor near/east of the Mississippi River, as surface cyclogenesis proceeds, a window of opportunity may develop this evening for one or two sustained, long tracked supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. The possible lingering influence of at least a shallow residual stable surface-based layer results in more uncertainty concerning severe weather potential closer to the track of the surface cyclone. However, mid/upper forcing for ascent and deep-layer mean wind fields/shear will be stronger across this region, and could contribute to potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps tornadoes. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale pattern is expected on Day 2/Thursday, as a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough advances slowly eastward across the central CONUS. As this occurs, a related cold front will move southeastward across central and east TX, while breezy/gusty north-northwesterly surface winds overspread the southern Plains in its wake. Ahead of the coldest post-frontal air (initially over the central Plains), a narrow corridor of deep boundary-layer mixing from western OK southwestward into west TX/eastern NM could support a brief overlap of strong winds/low RH. With that said, these conditions appear too brief for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the Southeast including parts of Alabama, north Florida and Georgia, as well as the Midwest including Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet streak will move across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Meanwhile, the larger-scale positively tilted trough will amplify across the central CONUS and into the Southern Plains. A ~1000mb surface low is expected to be located in the vicinity of central Illinois at 12Z Thursday. This surface low is expected to maintain its intensity around 1000 mb as it moves northeast into southern Ontario by Thursday evening. A cold front will trail this surface low and could be the focus for severe convective wind gusts across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the day Thursday. Farther south along the cold front, limited forcing should keep thunderstorm activity minimal in eastern Tennessee/Kentucky. However, more robust convection is expected across portions of the Southeast where low-level Gulf moisture should provide ample instability for a few strong to severe storms amid broad, weak ascent. ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... An unseasonably moist low-level airmass will be present ahead of the cold front Thursday morning with a HREF ensemble mean dewpoint in the mid 50s across eastern Indiana. This will result in low-level buoyancy along and ahead of the cold front Thursday morning. In fact, convection will likely remain quite shallow with forecast soundings showing an equilibrium below 3km. However, strong forcing from frontal convergence and dCVA across the region should lead to a fast moving broken line of convection during the day. Lightning is unlikely with this activity due to its shallow nature, but convection along the cold front could bring strong to potentially severe winds to the surface given the 70-75 knot 1km flow across the region. Extensive cloud cover and minimal boundary layer heating should keep mixing depth shallow. However, if even brief clearing can occur ahead of the front with some boundary layer heating, a greater threat for severe wind gusts will likely occur. If this were to occur, it would be most likely across portions of north-central and northeast Ohio where some CAM guidance suggests some clearing could occur during peak heating. ...Gulf Coast from far southeast Mississippi to southwest Georgia/Florida Panhandle... Remnant Gulf moisture with low to mid 60s dewpoints will remain ahead of the cold front across southeast Mississippi on Thursday morning. This best moisture will only extend around ~75 miles inland and therefore the marginal severe weather threat will be confined to areas in closer proximity to the coast. The cold front will move slowly east across this region during the day before stalling by Thursday afternoon across the central Florida Panhandle. Weak height falls across the region and convergence along the front should be sufficient for storm development during the day. A few strong to severe storms are possible, including the potential for supercell structures given 35-40 knots of effective shear. However, weak instability (400-700 J/kg MLCAPE) and weak lapse rates (~ 6 C/km) will foster a thermodynamic environment which is less than favorable for a more widespread threat. The primary threats will be damaging winds from any supercell structures or bowing segments which develop. In addition, a tornado or two is possible given the significant directional shear in the lowest 1km, but the relatively weak flow in this layer (less than 25 knots) and the aforementioned limited thermodynamic environment should mitigate the overall tornadic threat. ..Bentley.. 02/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into tonight, mainly across parts of the lower into middle Mississippi Valley. Some of these will be accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, a couple of which could become strong this evening across parts of eastern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas into western and central Mississippi. ...Synopsis... The more prominent belt of split mid-latitude westerlies is undergoing considerable amplification across the eastern Pacific into western North America. This will continue through this period, with mid-level ridging building inland of the Canadian and U.S. Pacific coast by late tonight. As this occurs, a vigorous downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig sharply along the Rockies, with mid-level flow ahead of it trending southwesterly and strengthening across the southern Great Plains through the Ohio Valley. A significant mid-level trough/elongating low is already beginning to pivot east of the southern Rockies as it begins to interact with a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. The trough axis is likely to gradually take on an increasingly negative tilt across Oklahoma and Texas during the day today, before accelerating north-northeastward through the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis from near/northwest of the Ark-La-Tex by late this afternoon into areas north-northeast of the St. Louis area by the end of the period. In the wake of a couple of significant recent cold intrusions, boundary modification over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is still underway. Mid/upper 60s surface dew points have advected inland within at least a shallow pre-cold frontal plume across Texas coastal areas into portions of the Piney Woods. A somewhat more substantive influx of Gulf moisture is forecast to overspread the Louisiana coast through much of the lower Mississippi Valley later today through tonight. Near the northwestern periphery of mid-level subtropical ridging, centered and becoming a bit more prominent across the Bahamas, mid/upper-levels are relatively warm, and lapse rates might not become particularly steep. However, the development of weak to moderate boundary-layer CAPE still appears probable within the evolving warm sector, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear which is expected to become sufficient for organized convection, including supercells. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Mississippi Valley... The primary mid-level trough may be preceded to its south and southeast by one or two subtropical perturbations, and the influence of associated forcing for ascent on thunderstorm development within the plume of returning moisture, while the boundary-layer attempts to destabilize inland of coastal areas, remains unclear. At the present time, the low-level moisture return associated with the stronger low-level flow (still around 40-50 kt around 850 mb) is tending to be undercut by the eastward advancing cold front, to the south of the developing surface low over northeast Texas. Meanwhile, convection allowing models generally indicate that a considerable amount of convection may commence in the destabilizing warm sector, well ahead of the cold front, across portions of Louisiana into Mississippi this afternoon. This would likely be prior to substantive strengthening of the low-level wind fields and associated hodographs, though the environment could be supportive of at least weak updraft rotation. Depending on the impact of earlier convective development, forcing along and just ahead of the eastward advancing cold front likely will become the focus for increasing vigorous thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening. This probably will including one or two evolving lines, with supercells embedded within and perhaps preceding it. Coupled with strengthening southerly 850 mb flow along a corridor near/east of the Mississippi River, as surface cyclogenesis proceeds, a window of opportunity may develop this evening for one or two sustained, long tracked supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. The possible lingering influence of at least a shallow residual stable surface-based layer results in more uncertainty concerning severe weather potential closer to the track of the surface cyclone. However, mid/upper forcing for ascent and deep-layer mean wind fields/shear will be stronger across this region, and could contribute to potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps tornadoes. ..Kerr/Supinie.. 02/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of a weak lee surface cyclone over the central High Plains, breezy westerly surface winds will overspread the southern High Plains during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible (particularly over eastern NM), marginal RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across portions of east Texas. Low-level moistening has continued across southern Texas with dewpoints now in the upper 60s. Shallow convection is streaming in off the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become deeper later this evening as temperatures cool aloft. Shear should be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023/ ...East Texas... Thunderstorms, including a couple of strong to severe storms, are expected to overspread portions of the TX Gulf Coast and east TX through the late evening and overnight hours as a cold front migrates east. Mid-morning surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing with mid to upper 60s dewpoints spreading across the TX coastal plain. This moisture will gradually shift northward into east TX during the evening/overnight hours as a surface low gradually deepens across north-central TX along a migratory surface cold front. Synoptic ascent associated with an approaching upper wave (noted over southern NM in water-vapor imagery) will largely be displaced behind the front over the next 24 hours. This ascent, combined with broad mid-level isentropic ascent over the southern Plains, will likely result in widespread stratiform precipitation with embedded elevated convection over much of central to northeast TX. Surface-based convection will most likely be focused along the cold front this evening/tonight across the TX coastal plain into east TX, coincident with the higher-quality moisture. Warm 850-700 mb temperatures (noted in 12 UTC RAOBS across southern TX) may modulate updraft intensities; however, increasing kinematic fields during the 06-12 UTC period will elongate hodographs and may support a couple of more robust, organized cells capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 7 20:04:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 7 20:04:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A cool post-frontal airmass will persist across much of the western and central CONUS, as surface high pressure builds over the Intermountain West. This large-scale pattern will yield minimal fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more