Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 21 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Friday from southern California across much of the Southwest. Some hail and strong/gusty winds may occur over parts of southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest... A closed upper low initially centered off the coast of southern CA will move eastward Friday across the northern Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature and associated mid-level moisture will support showers and thunderstorms from southern CA into much of the Southwest through the period. Widespread cloudiness and limited low-level moisture should hinder the development of much instability. But modest daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures as the upper trough/low advances eastward may aid weak buoyancy across parts of southern AZ and vicinity by Friday afternoon. Assuming this weak instability can develop, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough/low will support deep-layer shear increasing to 35-50 kt by late Friday afternoon and early evening. Some guidance shows the potential for a supercell or two to track northeastward from northern Mexico across parts of southern AZ and perhaps into far southwest NM. If this occurs, then isolated hail will be possible given cold mid-level temperatures and favorable effective bulk shear. The potential for occasional strong/gusty winds may also exist where the boundary layer can become well mixed as low-level lapse rates steepen and modest diurnal heating occurs. Overall confidence in severe potential across parts of the Southwest Friday remains low, as instability is expected to remain rather weak. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 Read more