Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The overall forecast remains unchanged and on track. Deep mixing within a relatively dry and breezy airmass across central and eastern FL should support a few hours of elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions within very dry fuels. Farther west across southwestern and Deep South TX, pockets of elevated fire-weather concerns should develop on the post frontal arimass this afternoon. Fire concerns will diminish quickly after dark as cooler conditions and higher humidity develop. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... A powerful upper-level shortwave and attendant deepening surface cyclone will yield generally windy and mild conditions across much of the Central U.S. on Friday. A strong, north-south cold front in the lower Delta around 12z is expected to surge eastward into the Carolinas, GA, and FL by nightfall. Windy and generally moist conditions will reside ahead of the front, except over portions of the FL peninsula where drier conditions are expected. Locally drier and warmer post-frontal conditions are also anticipated in portions of west and south TX. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible in these areas throughout the afternoon on Friday. ...Portions of west TX... Gradually backing flow will yield westerly, downsloping trajectories by the afternoon on Friday in the Big Bend region and northern vicinity. Minimum relative humidities around 15 percent and sustained surface winds around 15 mph are anticipated throughout the afternoon, likely peaking around 21z. These conditions, collocated with ERCs generally in the 70-80th percentiles, will support elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon. ...Brush Country and the Rio Grande Valley... Stronger, northwesterly flow is anticipated in this region on Friday, especially earlier in the day (e.g., late morning and early afternoon). Anticipated minimum relative humidities around 20 percent should overlap with stronger winds and pose an elevated fire weather threat in the early afternoon. Fuels are also particularly dry in this region (ERCs in the 90+ percentile), which would support large fire spread. ...Central FL... Breezy conditions are expected in central FL ahead of the cold front, likely reaching 20-25 mph in the afternoon. Local relative-humidity reductions to around 30-35 percent are possible in regions that have experienced minimal rainfall in the last few weeks. These meteorological conditions and supportive fuels warrant an Elevated area in central FL on Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0055 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0229 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Areas affected...much of northern Texas and southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 022038Z - 022315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage near a warm front over north Texas, with additional storms moving in from the west along the cold front. Tornadoes, some strong, damaging wind and hail will all be possible. DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to destabilize across north TX where warm front exists. Given the uncapped air mass and multiple boundaries, storm coverage will likely increase over the next several hours. Locally backed flow along the warm front as well as increasing low-level winds this evening with the approaching upper trough may yield several tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 30999784 31919799 32769787 33139744 33739674 34179656 34829623 35289566 35349513 35149451 34509417 33299402 32579414 31559548 31039594 30689708 30999784 Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228 ..THORNTON..03/02/23 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327-353-399- 411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-022140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 54 SEVERE TSTM TX 021930Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Edwards Plateau and Big Country of Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A mix of supercells and line segments will form along a sharpening dryline in west central Texas, and the storms will spread eastward through late afternoon/evening. Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph can be expected with the most intense storms. An isolated tornado may also occur along a stalled front in the area near and just northeast of Abilene. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Abilene TX to 10 miles south southwest of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/02/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-033-049-067-085-099-123-137-022140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER COTTON GARVIN JEFFERSON LOVE MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TXC009-023-077-097-133-237-337-363-429-485-497-503-022140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WICHITA WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 53 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 021845Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 53 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Western north Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Initially elevated thunderstorms will evolve into more surface-based storms along a front from northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma this afternoon. The storm environment will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing swaths of very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, and occasional damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southeast of Ardmore OK to 90 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and a couple of strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas into the ArkLaTex this afternoon through tonight. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South... A strong shortwave trough continues to progress into the southern High Plains, with ascent attendant to this wave already contributing to thunderstorm development over southwest TX. This area was addressed in recently issued MCD #228, which mentioned that damaging hail and wind will be possible with these. A tornado could occur along the stationary front, which extents east-northeastward from a low centered east of BGS. Recent 18Z FWD showed substantial capping, but modifying the sounding for current conditions lessens the convective inhibition considerably. This modified sounding validates the current mesoanalysis, which suggests convective inhibition has eroded for area of north and central TX south of the Metroplex. A few surface-based storms are possible in this region, where wind profiles support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. Upscale growth into an expansive convective line is still anticipated later this evening into tonight as the upper wave continues eastward into the increasingly moist and buoyant air mass over north/central/east TX. Primary threat within this line is damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph. Large hail also remains possible, particularly with early afternoon development and as a result of updraft intensification as the line mergers with any preceding cells. Line-embedded QLCS tornadoes also remain possible. ..Mosier.. 03/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will move over southwest TX later this afternoon, and then eject northeastward toward AR by the end of the period. Substantial surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough and 110+ kt midlevel jet streak, from north central TX later this afternoon to western/northern AR overnight. A reservoir of 65-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints is present from central/east TX into LA/MS as of late morning, and continued northward advection of moisture is expected through this afternoon into tonight. The north edge of the surface warm sector is not expected to move much to the north through this evening, with a front remaining quasi-stationary from north TX to southern AR. A remnant outflow boundary will tend to slowly become more diffuse through this afternoon across the DFW area. The approach of the midlevel trough, mass response to cyclogenesis, and surface heating in cloud breaks all suggest that thunderstorm development is probable by early-mid afternoon across central TX and western north TX, with storms spreading east-northeastward into the DFW area, northeast TX and extreme southeast OK through late evening. The initial storms will likely be clusters of supercells capable of producing very large hail and swaths of damaging winds as storms grow upscale into a line along the surging cold front from central into northeast TX this evening (some of which could produce significant gusts. Forecast hodographs also suggest some potential for tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, though the most favorable wind profiles will correspond to tonight when storm mode will likely be more linear. The compact nature of the jet structure suggests that the stronger/deeper forcing for ascent will travel along the path of cyclogenesis, from far northeast TX/southeast OK into AR tonight. South of this area, ascent will be weaker and relatively warm temperature profiles aloft suggest that storm development is more questionable with southward and eastward extent across LA/MS overnight. Read more

MD 0228 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Areas affected...parts of west-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021901Z - 022130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are likely to develop ahead of the surface low and extending southward along a dryline and approaching cold front. Damaging hail and wind will be possible. A tornado could occur along the stationary/warm front. DISCUSSION...Strong heating persists ahead of the surface low and dryline, with CU fields clearly indicating an uncapped air mass. A storm has already formed in Glasscock and Reagan Counties along the dryline. Southeasterly winds are supporting the advection of moisture, and MLCAPE will continue to increase. Further, cooling aloft will overspread the area, steepening midlevel lapse rates. Strong deep-layer shear will favor long-lived, forward-tilting hail storms. Damaging outflow winds will also be possible, especially with any storms that ride along the stationary/warm front extending east/northeast from the low. Here, a tornado or two will also be possible as low-level shear and lift are maximized. This may also become a favored corridor for damaging winds. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31189896 30609920 30299958 30370094 30600112 31360093 32750046 33120031 33379988 33379916 33299895 32969880 32199879 31629885 31189896 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The previous forecast for the southern Plains (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. Farther east, very dry mid/upper-tropospheric conditions will remain in place over the FL Peninsula, where deep-layer southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of an eastward-advancing low-pressure system. While modest low-level moistening is expected with the increasing southerly flow, efficient diurnal heating and deep boundary-layer mixing into the dry air aloft should yield 35-40 percent RH -- especially over central into eastern FL where temperatures should warm into the upper 80s. Currently, confidence in the overlap of 35-40 percent RH and 15-20 mph southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) is highest over the eastern half of the Peninsula from near Lake Okeechobee northward to Lake/Volusia Counties. Given receptive fuels through this corridor, Elevated highlights have been added. Spotty elevated conditions could also materialize over portions of northern and southern FL, though these conditions look too brief/localized for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a powerful upper-level wave and associated surface cyclone propagate through the Midwest, generally mild conditions will exist in its wake in the Central U.S. on Friday. This will temper the fire weather conditions across the Plains, except in portions of west and south TX where elevated fire weather threats may develop Friday afternoon. ...West TX... 15-20 mph westerly, downsloping winds are expected across the region on Friday. Along with daytime heating, this will contribute to gradually drying surface conditions during the afternoon. A continued dearth of precipitation will yield forecast ERCs around the 80th percentile, supporting fire spread. The Elevated area in portions of west TX highlights where these conditions should overlap on Friday afternoon. ...Portions of the Rio Grande River Valley... Post-frontal sustained winds around 15 mph are possible in portions of the Rio Grande River Valley in south TX. These post-frontal winds should be strongest in the morning and subside in the middle of the afternoon. Diurnal heating will yield relative humidities around 15-20% in the early afternoon, supporting brief, elevated fire weather conditions in the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CST THU MAR 02 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Select a General Area this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... North central and northeast Texas Central and southern Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Northern Louisiana Northwest Mississippi Southwest Tennessee * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and a couple of strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas this afternoon into the ArkLaTex through tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible on Friday across parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the AR/OK border into LA early Friday morning. This wave is expected to eject quickly northeastward throughout the day, reaching the lower OH Valley by Friday afternoon and the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Very strong mid to upper flow will accompany this system, with over 100 kt at 500-mb throughout its southern periphery. Strong mass response will also foster a strong and broad low-level jet, with a large area of 60+ kt at 850mb preceding the wave from the Southeast across the TN Valley into the Mid/Upper OH Valley. A deepening surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, as an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the Southeast States and TN Valley. A broad warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints will initially be in place ahead of this low and associated front. Severe thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it moves eastward, with the highest severe potential anticipated from middle TN into central KY during the afternoon. ...OH and TN Valleys... The surface low will likely be centered near southeast MO/northeast AR early Friday morning, before then moving quickly northeastward through the Lower OH Valley while occluding. This will lead to a narrowing of the warm sector with eastern extent. Even so, at least low 60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the low and attendant cold front from western TN/KY through middle TN and central KY. Heating ahead of the line will be modest, but some limited buoyancy is still expected to develop, particularly during the afternoon across middle TN and central KY. Strong forcing for ascent is expected, with vigorous large-scale ascent augmented by ascent along the front and surface low. This buoyancy and ascent will be colocated with robust wind fields. These environmental conditions are expected to support thunderstorms capable of strong gusts, and potentially a few tornadoes. A linear mode looks most probable, although some guidance has begun to indicate the potential for a few discrete storms ahead of the line. As of now, the discrete scenario has not been given too much weight, due to limited surface-based potential ahead of the line. That being said, any discrete storms that mature would likely be supercellular. ...Southeast... Instability will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, with the main forcing for ascent displaced northwest of the region. Even so, robust wind fields and moderate low-level moisture are expected to support severe thunderstorms along a cold front moving quickly eastward across the region. Primary threat is damaging wind gusts, although a tornado or two is also possible. ..Mosier.. 03/02/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor westward expansions were made to the Elevated and Critical areas based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. Farther east over much of eastern and central FL, efficient diurnal heating/mixing amid a dry antecedent airmass should yield critically low RH (i.e., 30-35 percent) this afternoon. While sustained surface winds of around 10 mph or less should mitigate fire-weather concerns, at least locally elevated conditions are possible given dry fuels across the area. However, current thinking is that any elevated conditions should be too spotty for highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level wave will eject across the Southern Plains during the day on Thursday. By the afternoon, a 100+ kt mid-level jet will overspread portions of west and south TX. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and drying prior to the arrival of a Pacific cold front in the evening. Scattered convection yesterday has resulted in locally higher fuel moisture content. However, for the most part, the area has observed minimal precipitation for the past several days. These factors will contribute to critical fire weather conditions from the late morning through mid-afternoon in portions of central and south TX. ...Big Bend region, the Edwards Plateau, and portions of south-central TX... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop relatively early in the day as the powerful upper-level wave ejects eastward. By late Thursday morning (around 17z), a deepening surface cyclone centered in west-central TX will support strengthening west-southwesterly flow (25-30 mph) across the Big Bend region. Dry, downsloping winds will result in boundary-layer relative humidities around 10-15 percent. This area has experienced several days of minimal precipitation and generally dry, windy conditions, resulting in fuels that support large fire spread. The prior Critical area has been expanded into the Big Bend region and vicinity to account for these expected conditions starting early in the day. The expected area of critical conditions will gradually shift eastward throughout the afternoon. Its zonal area will be bounded by substantial moisture return to the east and an approaching Pacific front from the west. Some uncertainty in the timing of the front -- and associated quick reduction in elevated/critical fire weather conditions -- remains, but recent guidance suggest the most likely timing of passage through the Big Bend region should be around 19-21z. Thereafter, critical conditions should exist ahead of the front prior to nightfall through portions of south TX. Fuels are generally receptive to fire spread along the Rio Grande River Valley, except in a small area in south-central TX that experienced locally heavy convective precipitation yesterday. The Critical area has been trimmed slightly westward in this region, which would otherwise support a critical fire weather threat. ...southeastern NM... There is also some signal for the development of post-frontal, elevated fire weather conditions in southeastern NM in the afternoon. However, uncertainty regarding the timing of frontal passage, moisture quality behind the front, and somewhat less-receptive fuels preclude introducing an Elevated area there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and a couple of strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas into the ArkLaTex this afternoon through tonight. ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will move over southwest TX later this afternoon, and then eject northeastward toward AR by the end of the period. Substantial surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough and 110+ kt midlevel jet streak, from north central TX later this afternoon to western/northern AR overnight. A reservoir of 65-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints is present from central/east TX into LA/MS as of late morning, and continued northward advection of moisture is expected through this afternoon into tonight. The north edge of the surface warm sector is not expected to move much to the north through this evening, with a front remaining quasi-stationary from north TX to southern AR. A remnant outflow boundary will tend to slowly become more diffuse through this afternoon across the DFW area. The approach of the midlevel trough, mass response to cyclogenesis, and surface heating in cloud breaks all suggest that thunderstorm development is probable by early-mid afternoon across central TX and western north TX, with storms spreading east-northeastward into the DFW area, northeast TX and extreme southeast OK through late evening. The initial storms will likely be clusters of supercells capable of producing very large hail and swaths of damaging winds as storms grow upscale into a line along the surging cold front from central into northeast TX this evening (some of which could produce significant gusts. Forecast hodographs also suggest some potential for tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, though the most favorable wind profiles will correspond to tonight when storm mode will likely be more linear. The compact nature of the jet structure suggests that the stronger/deeper forcing for ascent will travel along the path of cyclogenesis, from far northeast TX/southeast OK into AR tonight. South of this area, ascent will be weaker and relatively warm temperature profiles aloft suggest that storm development is more questionable with southward and eastward extent across LA/MS overnight. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 03/02/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 1 20:24:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0215 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR ARKLATEX...SOUTH/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Areas affected...Arklatex...South/Central Arkansas...Northern Mississippi...and western Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 012022Z - 012215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase in coverage by the afternoon/evening. More discrete cells may pose risk of large hail and a few tornadoes. Tornado Watch likely needed by 21-22z. DISCUSSION...Current surface objective analysis and data from 18z soundings at SHV and LZK show some progress made in eroding CIN across the corridor from Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. However, daytime heating is well underway with surface obs showing temperatures across southern Louisiana and Mississippi approaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. Moisture is in place with mid to upper 60s dew points into central Arkansas and Tennessee. Trends within CAM guidance have been for development of more discrete cells initially across the Arklatex region by 21-23z, where the cap has been weakening within the last couple of hours. Once storms develop, initial discrete cells will be capable of large hail, given deep layer shear profiles of 60-65 kts. Any cells that can become surface based near the AR/LA border will support some risk for tornadoes given adequate low level shear. As the low level jet gradually strengthens late afternoon/evening, elongating shear profiles and increasing 0-1 km shear should support a greater risk for tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely by 21-22z. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 03/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34149458 34509434 34849311 34929245 35119181 35399067 35518946 35518847 35068818 34228838 33958868 33539063 33159273 33049352 33099421 33169470 33449477 33799475 34149458 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A focused corridor of severe potential is evident this afternoon through tonight from northeast Texas into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley. Scattered large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all appear possible. A strong tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Northeast TX through the Mid-South and TN Valley... Recent surface analysis reveals a weak low over north Texas, with a stationary front extending northeastward across central AR into far southern IL. This front has been sharpening over the past few hours as warm, moist air advects northward across central/east TX and Lower MS Valley but cooler, drier trajectories persist through OK and the Ozark Plateau. 18Z SHV sounding still showed substantial capping, but the increased lift evidenced by the lightning activity across southeast OK and new echoes over southwest AR should begin to erode some of this inhibition. Thunderstorm development is still anticipated later this afternoon and evening. Highest tornado potential is still expected to occur within a narrow zone from southwest AR into northern MS and southwestern TN. In this area, a few discrete supercells are possible. Additional thunderstorm development is possible across the TX Hill Country early tomorrow morning and hail/wind probabilities were extended southwestward to cover this potential. ...NC... A few stronger thunderstorms are possible early tomorrow morning within the strengthening warm-air advection across the region. Buoyancy will be modest and storms should be elevated, but shear will be strong enough to support a few more robust/organized updrafts. Primary severe risk would be hail. Uncertainty regarding coverage precludes introducing any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023/ ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley... A broad area of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today through tonight across the southern Plains into the MS Valley and OH Valley. At the surface, a front extends from north TX into MO and the Midwest. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase this afternoon and evening along/south of this boundary. A strong cap noted on the 12Z SHV sounding should inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours. Eventually, subtle large-scale forcing associated with a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation over TX, along with modest low-level convergence along the front, should support convective initiation over northeast TX/the ArkLaTex region by late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, increasing low-level moisture, and filtered daytime heating should support moderate instability in a narrow corridor from northeast TX into the Mid-South. Deep-layer shear in excess of 50 kt will easily support organized thunderstorms, including supercells. Scattered large to very large hail will be threat with any initially discrete convection that develops. With time, thunderstorms should congeal into one or more bowing line segments as they spread eastward across the Mid-South and TN Valley this evening and tonight. The damaging wind threat should increase across these areas as this mode transition occurs. While there is still some uncertainty, most guidance also suggests that a southerly low-level jet will modestly strengthen this evening to around 30-35 kt. A narrow zone of more favorable tornado potential may exist across parts of southern/central AR into northern MS and southwestern TN, particularly if supercells can remain at least semi-discrete. A strong tornado appears possible in this corridor. Based on consensus of 12Z guidance, confidence has increased in a more concentrated corridor of severe potential across this region, warranting the addition of an Enhanced Risk. ...Ohio Valley... The cold front should advance quickly east-southeastward across the OH Valley through this evening. Low-level moisture will remain more limited compared to locations farther south. Still, steep lapse rates and ample daytime heating ahead of the front should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing both hail and damaging winds appear possible. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected across central and southern TX. More isolated and brief fire-weather potential will be possible for portions of North TX and the Red River Valley. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A potent wave ejection over the Southern Plains is anticipated on D2/Thursday afternoon and evening. An attendant surface cyclone will rapidly deepen and propagate from eastern NM Thursday morning eastward into northeast TX by Thursday evening. Strong moisture advection will occur in advance of this cyclone, but its northwestward extent should be limited to portions of central TX throughout the day on Thursday. To the west, very strong flow aloft (around 100+ kt flow at 500 mb) will yield a very deep and well-mixed boundary layer in portions of south TX from the Edwards Plateau southward along the Rio Grande Valley. As a result, critical fire weather conditions are likely in these areas on Thursday afternoon. The duration of these conditions will be truncated by a Pacific cold front moving through the region in the evening. ...Portions of south TX... Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated early in the day on Thursday in portions of South TX. Sustained surface winds around 25-30+ mph and relative humidities around 10-15 percent are forecast as early as 17z. This will lead to a quick onset of critical fire weather conditions, particularly in western parts of the expanded Critical area. This region of very windy, dry conditions -- confined between an approaching cold front to the west and moisture return to the east -- will be relatively narrow and translate eastward during the day. Because of this, critical conditions will not be very long-lived in any particular region. The longest duration of critical conditions is expected in the Edwards Plateau vicinity before the arrival of a Pacific cold front around 20-22z. ERCs around the 80+ percentile are forecast in this area, indicating fuels receptive of large fire spread. Very strong surface flow around 40+ mph accompanying the frontal passage could pose a brief spike in the spread of any ongoing fire activity. However, milder conditions behind the front should thereafter quickly temper any further fire weather threat Thursday evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST AR AND NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears likely across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions Thursday into Thursday night, with a few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and hail all expected. ...Synopsis... Upper low currently moving through central CA is forecast to continue southeastward today before then pivoting eastward tonight and reaching the AZ/NM border by early Thursday morning. Continued eastward progression across the southern High Plains is anticipated during the day Thursday. A trend towards a negative tilt and a bit more northeastward motion is expected Thursday night into Friday morning as the low moves across the southern Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100+ kt flow at 500 mb spreading eastward across TX Thursday afternoon and through the Arklatex by early Friday morning. Surface pattern will likely feature a weak frontal low over the TX Big Country early Thursday morning, with a warm front extending from this low northeastward through southeast OK and southern AR. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward along the warm front into southeast OK by the afternoon, while a more substantial low develops farther west with the main ascent associated with the upper low. This primary low is then expected to move quickly eastward Thursday evening and overnight, as an attendant cold front sweeps across TX and the Lower MS Valley. ...Central/East TX into Lower MS Valley... Ample low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will be in place across the region ahead of the approaching upper low. Strengthening low to mid-level flow within this moist and buoyant environment will set the stage for numerous severe thunderstorms as the upper low moves through Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front from southwest TX through the Mid-South. A few stronger storms are possible within this corridor during the morning, but the primary severe threat is expected to begin over the warm sector Thursday afternoon. Wind profiles throughout the warm sector will support supercells, but warm mid-level temperatures and weak ascent introduce uncertainty regarding the location and coverage of any warm sector storms. Mesoscale ascent associated with the weak wave low mentioned in the synopsis may provide enough ascent to initiate a few discrete cells across northeast TX, which could then move downstream into southeast OK, southwest AR, and northwest LA. Persistent warm-air advection could also moisten the low to mid-levels just enough to initiate a few storms. Given the wind profiles, storms that mature should become supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is possible. A more widespread severe thunderstorm risk is expected to develop across southwest TX/TX Big Country during the late afternoon as the front moves through. Strong ascent along the front coupled attendant to the upper low should result in a line of severe storms. This line is forecast to move quickly eastward throughout the evening. Robust kinematic fields associated with strong mid-level flow and a strengthening low-level jet will support both strong wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes with this squall line as it moves eastward. The same corridor most favorable for the afternoon discrete storms (i.e. from northeast TX into southern AR and northwest LA) will remain the most favorable for additional severe Thursday night. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TX... The previous forecast remains valid with minor adjustments to the Critical area over the southern Rio Grande Valley. Widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected from the TX Big Bend through West TX and the western TX Panhandle. Farther east in the Panhandle and western OK, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may develop given low RH and gusty winds. However, cloud cover and rainfall from recent storms should keep the threat localized. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level wave is expected to deepen on Wednesday over the western U.S. Surface low-pressure development will occur east of the Rockies around northeastern NM, yielding strengthening westerly winds in the Southern Plains throughout the day. A well-mixed, dry, and windy boundary layer will result. In tandem with these forecast meteorological conditions, lighter fuels receptive to large fire spread will yield a broad area of critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon. ...Portions of eastern NM and West TX... The strongly forced synoptic pattern -- downstream of a developing, potent upper-level trough -- is expected to yield quite dry and windy surface conditions in the Critical area. Sustained surface winds of 25-30 mph are expected along with relative humidities between 10-15%. Some areas with even drier conditions are possible (as low as 5%), especially where locally faster flow aloft (e.g., 80-90 kts at 500 mb) may support deeper mixing. Forecast ERCs are around the 60-80th percentiles, suggesting fuels support large fire spread. Localized wetting rain (around 1+ inch) occurred Sunday afternoon/evening in portions of the central TX Panhandle, where the Elevated area has been slightly trimmed. Otherwise, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in portions of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more