Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over the central Plains will deepen as it drifts east toward the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, and a stronger sub-tropical jet moving across the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a stream of rich mid-level moisture over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure over the Mid-MS Valley will lift north toward the Upper Midwest while a trailing cold front shifts east across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, extending from near Lake Michigan to the central Gulf Coast vicinity by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture as far north as the TN/OH Valley vicinity. Dewpoints in the 60s F will reside further south across much of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast. However, widespread cloudiness, ongoing precipitation, and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. Building surface high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Rockies into the Plains will result in mostly dry and stable conditions. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over the central Plains will deepen as it drifts east toward the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, and a stronger sub-tropical jet moving across the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a stream of rich mid-level moisture over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure over the Mid-MS Valley will lift north toward the Upper Midwest while a trailing cold front shifts east across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, extending from near Lake Michigan to the central Gulf Coast vicinity by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture as far north as the TN/OH Valley vicinity. Dewpoints in the 60s F will reside further south across much of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast. However, widespread cloudiness, ongoing precipitation, and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. Building surface high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Rockies into the Plains will result in mostly dry and stable conditions. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over the central Plains will deepen as it drifts east toward the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, and a stronger sub-tropical jet moving across the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a stream of rich mid-level moisture over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure over the Mid-MS Valley will lift north toward the Upper Midwest while a trailing cold front shifts east across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, extending from near Lake Michigan to the central Gulf Coast vicinity by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture as far north as the TN/OH Valley vicinity. Dewpoints in the 60s F will reside further south across much of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast. However, widespread cloudiness, ongoing precipitation, and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. Building surface high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Rockies into the Plains will result in mostly dry and stable conditions. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over the central Plains will deepen as it drifts east toward the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, and a stronger sub-tropical jet moving across the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a stream of rich mid-level moisture over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure over the Mid-MS Valley will lift north toward the Upper Midwest while a trailing cold front shifts east across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, extending from near Lake Michigan to the central Gulf Coast vicinity by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture as far north as the TN/OH Valley vicinity. Dewpoints in the 60s F will reside further south across much of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast. However, widespread cloudiness, ongoing precipitation, and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. Building surface high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Rockies into the Plains will result in mostly dry and stable conditions. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop in the central Plains today as a mid-level trough translates across the western CONUS and amplifies. This will bring some windy conditions to portions of the Southwest and the Southern and Central High Plains. However, this system will bring significant Pacific moisture and advect Gulf moisture northward as low-level flow strengthens. Therefore, relative humidity will remain quite high. In addition, fuels will be moist across the region with additional wetting rain expected. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop in the central Plains today as a mid-level trough translates across the western CONUS and amplifies. This will bring some windy conditions to portions of the Southwest and the Southern and Central High Plains. However, this system will bring significant Pacific moisture and advect Gulf moisture northward as low-level flow strengthens. Therefore, relative humidity will remain quite high. In addition, fuels will be moist across the region with additional wetting rain expected. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop in the central Plains today as a mid-level trough translates across the western CONUS and amplifies. This will bring some windy conditions to portions of the Southwest and the Southern and Central High Plains. However, this system will bring significant Pacific moisture and advect Gulf moisture northward as low-level flow strengthens. Therefore, relative humidity will remain quite high. In addition, fuels will be moist across the region with additional wetting rain expected. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop in the central Plains today as a mid-level trough translates across the western CONUS and amplifies. This will bring some windy conditions to portions of the Southwest and the Southern and Central High Plains. However, this system will bring significant Pacific moisture and advect Gulf moisture northward as low-level flow strengthens. Therefore, relative humidity will remain quite high. In addition, fuels will be moist across the region with additional wetting rain expected. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop in the central Plains today as a mid-level trough translates across the western CONUS and amplifies. This will bring some windy conditions to portions of the Southwest and the Southern and Central High Plains. However, this system will bring significant Pacific moisture and advect Gulf moisture northward as low-level flow strengthens. Therefore, relative humidity will remain quite high. In addition, fuels will be moist across the region with additional wetting rain expected. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A shortwave upper trough will pivot east on Sunday from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK/KS at the beginning of the period will weaken with time, becoming elongated from the Ozarks to LA by late afternoon into the evening. A line and/or cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from central/eastern OK southward into north and central TX. This activity will be occurring in a warm advection regime within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough and an advancing surface cold front. A weakening low-level jet and south/southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line of convection will result in wind profiles typically favorable for low-level rotation. However, greater low-level shear/SRH and better quality low-level thermodynamics will likely be offset from one another. Forecast thermodynamic profiles indicate poor low-level lapse rates and at least pockets of weak inhibition Sunday morning. This will likely limit severe/low-end tornado potential across central into eastern TX during the morning hours. By afternoon, limited heating due to widespread cloudiness and precipitation will preclude stronger destabilization downstream toward the ArkLaTex and Sabine Valley. Any stronger instability will likely remain offshore the Upper Texas and LA coasts, and severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A shortwave upper trough will pivot east on Sunday from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK/KS at the beginning of the period will weaken with time, becoming elongated from the Ozarks to LA by late afternoon into the evening. A line and/or cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from central/eastern OK southward into north and central TX. This activity will be occurring in a warm advection regime within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough and an advancing surface cold front. A weakening low-level jet and south/southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line of convection will result in wind profiles typically favorable for low-level rotation. However, greater low-level shear/SRH and better quality low-level thermodynamics will likely be offset from one another. Forecast thermodynamic profiles indicate poor low-level lapse rates and at least pockets of weak inhibition Sunday morning. This will likely limit severe/low-end tornado potential across central into eastern TX during the morning hours. By afternoon, limited heating due to widespread cloudiness and precipitation will preclude stronger destabilization downstream toward the ArkLaTex and Sabine Valley. Any stronger instability will likely remain offshore the Upper Texas and LA coasts, and severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A shortwave upper trough will pivot east on Sunday from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK/KS at the beginning of the period will weaken with time, becoming elongated from the Ozarks to LA by late afternoon into the evening. A line and/or cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from central/eastern OK southward into north and central TX. This activity will be occurring in a warm advection regime within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough and an advancing surface cold front. A weakening low-level jet and south/southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line of convection will result in wind profiles typically favorable for low-level rotation. However, greater low-level shear/SRH and better quality low-level thermodynamics will likely be offset from one another. Forecast thermodynamic profiles indicate poor low-level lapse rates and at least pockets of weak inhibition Sunday morning. This will likely limit severe/low-end tornado potential across central into eastern TX during the morning hours. By afternoon, limited heating due to widespread cloudiness and precipitation will preclude stronger destabilization downstream toward the ArkLaTex and Sabine Valley. Any stronger instability will likely remain offshore the Upper Texas and LA coasts, and severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A shortwave upper trough will pivot east on Sunday from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK/KS at the beginning of the period will weaken with time, becoming elongated from the Ozarks to LA by late afternoon into the evening. A line and/or cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from central/eastern OK southward into north and central TX. This activity will be occurring in a warm advection regime within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough and an advancing surface cold front. A weakening low-level jet and south/southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line of convection will result in wind profiles typically favorable for low-level rotation. However, greater low-level shear/SRH and better quality low-level thermodynamics will likely be offset from one another. Forecast thermodynamic profiles indicate poor low-level lapse rates and at least pockets of weak inhibition Sunday morning. This will likely limit severe/low-end tornado potential across central into eastern TX during the morning hours. By afternoon, limited heating due to widespread cloudiness and precipitation will preclude stronger destabilization downstream toward the ArkLaTex and Sabine Valley. Any stronger instability will likely remain offshore the Upper Texas and LA coasts, and severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A shortwave upper trough will pivot east on Sunday from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK/KS at the beginning of the period will weaken with time, becoming elongated from the Ozarks to LA by late afternoon into the evening. A line and/or cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from central/eastern OK southward into north and central TX. This activity will be occurring in a warm advection regime within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough and an advancing surface cold front. A weakening low-level jet and south/southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line of convection will result in wind profiles typically favorable for low-level rotation. However, greater low-level shear/SRH and better quality low-level thermodynamics will likely be offset from one another. Forecast thermodynamic profiles indicate poor low-level lapse rates and at least pockets of weak inhibition Sunday morning. This will likely limit severe/low-end tornado potential across central into eastern TX during the morning hours. By afternoon, limited heating due to widespread cloudiness and precipitation will preclude stronger destabilization downstream toward the ArkLaTex and Sabine Valley. Any stronger instability will likely remain offshore the Upper Texas and LA coasts, and severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... A large-scale mid- to upper-level trough will move east from the Great Basin/Desert Southwest into the central and southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the period. A lead mid-level speed max will move through the base of the larger-scale trough and overspread the southern High Plains during the afternoon/early evening. In the low levels, a developing cyclone over the central High Plains will aid in advecting moisture northward on southerly flow across the southern High Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across eastern NM and adjacent TX counties during the morning. Considerable cloud cover will act to partially inhibit heating and low-level lapse rates --especially with north extent-- will be limited as a result. Despite weak instability and model-derived MUCAPE 250-1000 J/kg, cool 500 mb temperatures (-16 to -18 deg C) may foster an environment with a few vigorous updrafts capable of a marginally severe hail risk with activity that develops during the afternoon. A mix of cells and bands of storms will likely transition to an extensive, broken squall line by the evening as it moves from the Caprock east into southwest OK and western north TX during the overnight. A tornado cannot be ruled out across parts of west TX during the afternoon, but this risk will likely be limited by the lack of stronger low-level shear and buoyancy. The aforementioned squall line will ingest increasingly elevated parcels with east extent across OK and western north TX and probably hinder the propensity for localized severe gusts with the convective line overnight. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/23/2023 Read more