Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas eastward along the middle Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east Texas. Otherwise, locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two could occur across the region. ...Gulf Coast including Southeast Texas to Florida Panhandle... Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough entering TX Hill Country/South TX. This lead shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, moving across central and east TX and into the Lower MS Valley. A broad area of low-level warm-air advection precedes this shortwave, supporting elevated showers and thunderstorms from southeast TX across much of the Lower MS Valley and into the central Gulf Coast. Recent surface analysis places the main frontal low near TYR in northeast TX, but another more subtle secondary low appears to be centered about 20 mi north of VCT. A warm front arcs northeastward and then eastward from this second low, delineating a more maritime air mass characterized by low/mid 70s temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints. This warm and moist air mass would be more supportive of surface-based storms with any storms to its north expected to remain elevated. Inland penetration of this more maritime air mass will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and continuing precipitation, likely confining the risk for surface-based storms to the middle and upper TX Coast, and perhaps the immediate coastal portions of southwest LA, this afternoon and into this evening. Damaging wind gusts associated with bowing line segments are the primary severe risk with these surface-based storms, but a brief tornado or two is also possible. The maritime air mass is expected to continue moving inland this evening father east across portions of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle. Warm-air advection will likely remain the primary forcing mechanism, keeping the majority of storms elevated north of more buoyant air mass. That being said, mesoscale ascent attendant to the eastward-progressing secondary low could still support a few surface-based storms. The environment is expected to remain favorable for bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/29/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft is forecast to gradually increase over the western CONUS Sunday as low-amplitude ridging strengthens over the east. An upper low along the west coast will gradually amplify increasing flow aloft over portions of the Southwest. A cold front will move south through the plains as surface high pressure strengthens over the northern Rockies. While cold arctic air will limit fire-weather potential over much of the Plains, dry and windy conditions should remain somewhat sheltered across portions of southern NM and far west TX ahead of the front. Southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and RH below 20% will be common. However, recent precipitation has limited fuel availability such that any fire-weather conditions are likely to remain very localized and below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft is forecast to gradually increase over the western CONUS Sunday as low-amplitude ridging strengthens over the east. An upper low along the west coast will gradually amplify increasing flow aloft over portions of the Southwest. A cold front will move south through the plains as surface high pressure strengthens over the northern Rockies. While cold arctic air will limit fire-weather potential over much of the Plains, dry and windy conditions should remain somewhat sheltered across portions of southern NM and far west TX ahead of the front. Southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and RH below 20% will be common. However, recent precipitation has limited fuel availability such that any fire-weather conditions are likely to remain very localized and below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-level moistening continues across southern and eastern Texas amid moderate lower tropospheric flow. MUCAPE has now increased to around 500 J/kg along the Texas Gulf Coast. Instability will continue to increase as low-level moisture advects northward. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight from east Texas into Arkansas. Additional surface-based thunderstorms will develop over the western Gulf late in the period. These storms will remain mostly offshore, but a few strong cells could move onshore toward the end of the period (29/12Z). ..Bentley.. 01/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023/ ...East/southeast TX to AR tonight... Within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the CONUS, one embedded shortwave trough over northern AZ will move eastward to OK by tonight, as other embedded waves over northwest Mexico approach TX. Air mass modification/low-level moistening will continue from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Ark-La-Tex, in advance of an arctic cold front that will reach OK/northwest TX early Sunday. The gradual moistening in a low-level warm advection regime, combined with the approaching/low-amplitude shortwave troughs, will support a gradual increase in the threat for elevated thunderstorms tonight from east TX into AR. An isolated strong storm may occur near the end of the forecast period (29/12z) along the upper TX coast, but the primary severe threat will remain in the day 2 period. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 28 19:57:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 28 19:57:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will gradually become more southwesterly across much of the western and central CONUS through D2/Sun as an upper trough deepens along the West Coast. As ridging aloft intensifies over the northern Rockies, a surface cold front will move quickly south through the central and eastern US reinforced by an arctic airmass arriving from the north. Surface high pressure over the Plains, with cold temperatures and weak offshore flow will keep fire weather concerns minimal over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into the central Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east Texas. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet will eject from Mexico and overspread moderate mid-level flow across the Gulf Coast States on Sunday. A low-level jet is expected to strengthen to around 35 to 40 knots across the western Gulf. At the surface, a strong cold front will move south across the Central Plains and near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Monday. Moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico, ongoing today, will start to stall Sunday morning as the surface low across Texas fills and surface flow weakens. This should keep richer low-level moisture offshore for most of the day Sunday. In addition, elevated convection is expected to be ongoing Sunday morning in a region of isentropic ascent from southeast Texas into Louisiana. These storms should also reinforce the marine front and keep it mostly confined to the coast. ...East Texas and Vicinity... Decent mid-level lapse rates and moderate elevated instability (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected Sunday morning across eastern Texas. This could support a few updrafts capable of large hail, potentially extending into southwest Louisiana. Surface based storms are possible later in the day across southeast Texas. An EML is expected across the region which will keep the region mostly capped with rather nebulous large scale forcing. Later in the afternoon, convergence along the southward moving cold front could be sufficient for a few surface based storms to develop. Long, relatively straight hodographs will support hail as the primary threat. ...Gulf Coast... Rising heights across the warm sector, weak lapse rates, and only a small region of surface based instability along the coast are the primary limiting factors to severe convection. Otherwise, deep layer shear will be favorable for supercells, and there is enough low-level directional/speed shear for some low-level mesocyclone organization. However, even within the broadly favorable wind profile, surface winds are also quite weak which will be an inhibiting factor. If a cluster of storms can develop and propagate east along/near the marine front, which is shown by a few CAM solutions, the damaging wind threat may be somewhat greater given the 30-35 knots of flow at 0.5km on RAP forecast soundings. Although, this low-level jet is expected to weaken through the day, is only supported by a subset of the CAM solutions, and the thermodynamic environment will likely remain marginal. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is forecast to gradually amplify as a shortwave trough progresses east out of the central Rockies. Westerly flow will support lee troughing and some gusty winds across the southern High Plains and west Texas. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of west TX and the Trans Pecos where abnormally dry conditions are present. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As southwest flow aloft increases through the afternoon, lee troughing and an uptick in surface winds is expected. Aided by downslope flow of 15-25 mph and enhanced mixing from stronger flow aloft, diurnal minimum RH values are forecast to fall to 10-20%. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions are expected to overlap with at least somewhat receptive fuels given the lack of appreciable precipitation over the last week. Thus, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Big Bend and west TX/southern NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...East/southeast TX to AR tonight... Within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the CONUS, one embedded shortwave trough over northern AZ will move eastward to OK by tonight, as other embedded waves over northwest Mexico approach TX. Air mass modification/low-level moistening will continue from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Ark-La-Tex, in advance of an arctic cold front that will reach OK/northwest TX early Sunday. The gradual moistening in a low-level warm advection regime, combined with the approaching/low-amplitude shortwave troughs, will support a gradual increase in the threat for elevated thunderstorms tonight from east TX into AR. An isolated strong storm may occur near the end of the forecast period (29/12z) along the upper TX coast, but the primary severe threat will remain in the day 2 period. ..Thompson.. 01/28/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight, and no changes are necessary with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0959 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will encompass the CONUS, with embedded shortwave troughs moving eastward over the Great Lakes and south-southeastward over the northern Rockies/Great Basin. Low-level moisture is limited in the wake of a prior frontal passage (the front has stalled across the FL Straits), and this will preclude thunderstorms through Saturday morning. Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 27 19:52:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 27 19:52:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions are still expected in the Trans-Pecos. Locally elevated conditions are also possible in the lee of the southern Rockies and into parts of the Texas South Plains. Poorly receptive fuels will limit the need for additional highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... The general weather pattern continues to be dominated by broad cyclonic flow and generally mild conditions. Within this flow, a trough axis in the western US will slowly pivot from around the Four Corners region through the Midwest. An attendant weak surface low will track northeastward through the Great Lakes as a cold front plunges southward through the Central Plains. Return flow to the south of the front will yield more humid conditions across the Arklatex region. The relatively moist airmasses on both sides of the front and modest surface flow will yield below-elevated fire-weather conditions across the CONUS east of the Rockies, with the exception of portions of west TX. ...west TX... Strengthening southwesterly flow (around 15-20 kts) is anticipated on Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos region. Associated boundary-layer mixing is expected to yield minimum RH values around 10-15% amidst diurnally warming temperatures. ERCs appear rather low, but the dearth of precipitation in this region has led to 10-1000-hr fuel moisture around 10% or lower. The Elevated area represents the most likely region where these criteria will overlap during the afternoon on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A longwave upper-level pattern associated with a broad cyclone over the Hudson Bay will dominate the CONUS. A few distinct areas of the country could experience elevated or near-elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by broad mild conditions and flow. To the east, a subtle shortwave trough rotating southeastward through the broader cyclonic flow from the Pacific Northwest towards eastern CO. Flow will become more zonal leading to lee surface cyclogenesis in eastern CO. This cyclone will deepen slightly as it translates eastward during the second half of the period. Strengthening southerly flow will develop across the western OK/TX Panhandles and vicinity, but atmospheric and fuel moisture remain below elevated thresholds after recent precipitation. ...southern CA/AZ... Northeasterly flow persists in southern CA and southwest AZ. Localized downsloping gusts and drier conditions are possible, but ground and fuel moisture levels remain high. This will temper the overall fire threat in this region. ...FL Peninsula... Surface high pressure expected to form along the northern Gulf Coast throughout the day on Friday, leading to large-scale descent in the southeast US and FL. Dry, northerly flow down the FL peninsula could lead to minimum RH values around 30-35% amidst winds around 15-20 kts. HREF guidance suggests that sustained winds may peak prior to the realization of minimum RH values, but enough spatiotemporal overlap exists to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper-level troughing will persist across the CONUS on Saturday. A mid/upper shortwave impulse embedded in larger-scale flow over the Rockies early in the day will eject eastward across the Plains and into the Midwest through early Sunday. As this occurs, the southwesterly subtropical jet over Mexico will merge with strong westerly flow associated with the ejecting shortwave trough over the southern Plains and mid/lower MS Valley Saturday evening/overnight. At the surface, low pressure will develop east and northeast along a frontal zone from the southern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes vicinity. This will allow for southerly low-level flow and northward transport of Gulf moisture across the south-central U.S. This will aid in development of weak instability across east TX toward AR into western MS/TN overnight. Warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping for much of the period. However, midlevel moistening along with increasing large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development after 03z, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will encompass the CONUS, with embedded shortwave troughs moving eastward over the Great Lakes and south-southeastward over the northern Rockies/Great Basin. Low-level moisture is limited in the wake of a prior frontal passage (the front has stalled across the FL Straits), and this will preclude thunderstorms through Saturday morning. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 01/27/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the continental United States today or tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight and no changes are necessary with the 20z outlook update. ..Leitman.. 01/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0950 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A 990 mb surface low over Maine will move northeast while deepening. Behind the cold front trailing the surface low, a cold and/or dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the CONUS today as a longwave upper trough de-amplifies overhead. Mass subsidence over the CONUS should suppress thunderstorm development, with no thunderstorm probabilities introduced this outlook. Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 26 19:40:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 26 19:40:02 UTC 2023.