Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening over parts of central/southern Arizona and the Lower Colorado River Valley, and from the central Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado Valley... Visible satellite shows relatively cloud-free skies, which will be conducive for ample insolation/heating coincident with a relatively moist air mass, with prevalent 60s F surface dewpoints in the lower elevations of southern Arizona and middle 50s F dewpoints along the Mogollon Rim as of late morning. An increase in storm coverage as compared to yesterday seems probable. Easterly mid-level/steering winds are and will remain notably strong as the upper high builds to the north over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Upwards of 25-30 kt mid-level winds are plausible across the southern half of Arizona, which would be conducive for storm organization/upscale growth and propagation onto the lower elevations/desert floor and Lower Colorado River Valley. Initial discrete development over the higher terrain/near the Rim will pose a risk for localized severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. However, a more organized/substantial wind threat may emerge with upscale-growing/MCS development by evening. ...Central Plains to Upper Great Lakes... The primary shortwave trough over northeast Manitoba will shift east across southern Hudson Bay/far northern Ontario, with the trailing part of this trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes. A weak mid-level trough will meander east across the Ozarks. In between these features, deep-layer shear will be enhanced across the central Great Plains owing to 25-35 kt mid-level north-northwesterly winds. Weaker deep-layer shear is anticipated with northeast extent along a cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest. A greater potential for scattered thunderstorms along the front should exist in the southeast Minnesota/northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan vicinity given more pronounced low-level convergence and trailing influence of the Ontario trough. Multicell clusters mainly producing isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail will be the primary threats. A more isolated thunderstorm coverage is anticipated into southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, but given the greater vertical shear and nearly perpendicular orientation of mid-level flow with respect to the front, a few transient supercells embedded within a cluster or two may develop. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible, with increasing MLCIN after dusk being detrimental for sustaining severe potential later into the evening. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/02/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 1 17:49:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 1 17:49:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening from portions of the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, and also across central and southern Arizona. Strong wind gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms. ...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across Ontario and Quebec on Friday, with the trailing part of this trough moving across the upper Great Lakes region. A weaker midlevel trough will persist to the southwest across the mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains. A cold front will move across the upper Midwest and the northern/central Plains. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop along and ahead of the front by Friday afternoon. A tendency for the strongest large-scale ascent to stay north of the international border renders timing/coverage of storm initiation uncertain, but isolated development appears possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains by late afternoon/early evening. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Northerly midlevel flow may support one or more southward-moving clusters across the Plains during the mid/late evening, though the southwestward extent of any severe threat remains uncertain at this time. ...Arizona... An increase in low-level moisture is expected across parts of Arizona on Friday, which will aid in moderate diurnal destabilization from the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts, and a likely increase in storm coverage (compared to previous days) from late afternoon into the evening. Initial semi-discrete development across the higher terrain may pose a threat of isolated strong wind gusts and hail. Modestly enhanced midlevel easterly flow along the southern periphery of an upper ridge will support the potential for outflow-driven clusters to spread into the lower deserts, posing a threat of isolated severe gusts Friday evening. ..Dean.. 09/01/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Tropical moisture, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and PW values greater than 2 inches, will persist across the Southeast. Primarily diurnal convection will be focused across south GA/north FL by a weak midlevel low and local sea breeze/differential heating zones. Farther west into the southern Plains, similar moisture exists with embedded/weak midlevel troughs over southwest OK and northern Mexico. The southwest OK wave will move slowly east-northeastward through tonight, in response to an upstream trough digging south-southeastward over KS. Embedded thunderstorms are expected across central OK with the ejecting wave, but lightning may be more prevalent around the northern-eastern-southern periphery of the midlevel trough, with diurnal convection in the zones of differential heating on the edge of the thicker clouds. Otherwise, a larger-scale midlevel trough will move east-southeastward over AB/SK/MB, as a smaller-scale lead wave ejects generally eastward over MT today. Low-level moisture will be limited across the northern Plains, with only a small chance for thunderstorms with the ejecting shortwave trough and a cold front this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 09/01/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains this afternoon as an upper wave translates across the region. A pair of upper troughs, noted over the northern Rockies and northwestern Canadian Prairies in morning water-vapor imagery, are expected to phase as they crest a Great Basin upper ridge. This phasing will enhance mid-level flow and shift a Canadian surface low into the Plains through the day. The passage of an associated cold front across the northern Plains, coupled with strengthening flow, will support breezy conditions over a region with receptive fuels and antecedent dry conditions. ...Montana... Latest guidance has delayed the passage of the Canadian cold front across northern/central MT until later in the afternoon/evening compared to previous model runs. While strong surface winds may be less expansive than anticipated, a deepening lee trough and strengthening zonal flow off the Rockies will foster breezy downslope winds. Temperatures in the 90s and RH minimums in the teens to 20s remain likely and will maintain the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. A wind shift to the north/northwest associated with the frontal passage is still expected later today, but may occur just after peak daytime heating during the 00-03 UTC time frame. ...Snake River Plain and Wyoming... 00 UTC soundings from BOI and RIW sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across ID and WY. Recent surface observations show overnight RH values are struggling to recover out of the 20-30% range. Such conditions are conducive for another day of deep boundary-layer mixing, which will aid in downward transfer of the strengthening mid-level flow over the region this afternoon. Sustained winds between 15-20 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph appear likely. Confidence remains high in elevated, to briefly critical, conditions through the Snake River Plain. To the east across WY, fire weather concerns are possible across much of the state, but may manifest as numerous pockets of somewhat transient elevated conditions. An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of WY that are most likely to see sustained and sufficiently widespread elevated conditions - namely in the lee of prominent ranges. Further refinement of this risk area is possible as guidance comes into better agreement over the next 12 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 31 17:56:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Areas affected...much of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311754Z - 312030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in convective coverage and intensity across northwest NE as a small mid-level impulse grazes the central Plains. Ahead of the storms, strong diurnal heating is contributing to surface temperatures exceeding 90 F, with a dry boundary layer growing to 600 mb and low-level lapse rates steepening past 9 C/km. As such, continued intensification of the ongoing storms amid the warm/dry low-level environment should promote enough evaporative cooling to support strong wind gusts, and a few gusts exceeding 50 kts are possible. Nonetheless, shear and upper support are expected to remain weak, so storm organization should remain fairly limited, with any severe gusts being isolated. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/31/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41170157 41940101 42210045 42549950 42609838 42359706 41709713 41249770 40849831 40549890 40449935 40480062 40500127 41170157 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be relatively low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the West on Thursday, while an upper trough may amplify slightly from the central/southern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. A seasonably deep upper trough initially over New England will move northeastward away from the region through the day. In general, generally weak deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit the threat of organized convection through the period. Northerly midlevel flow across parts of the central/southern High Plains may support sufficient deep-layer shear for some modest storm organization, but uncertainty remains high regarding the extent of destabilization and coverage of storms in this area. Elsewhere, high-based convection could produce locally gusty winds across parts of the northern Plains and also across Arizona. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central/north TX into southern OK, and also across parts of the Southeast, but these storms are expected to remain relatively disorganized. ..Dean.. 08/31/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and locally damaging wind gusts are also possible over parts of Maine and northern New York. ...Maine... In the wake of abating early day precipitation and cloud cover, isolated thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon across west/central Maine within a narrow zone of modest destabilization near the eastward-moving front. While overall buoyancy will be modest, sufficient heating/boundary layer mixing in conjunction with moderately strong low/mid-level westerlies could yield some stronger wind gusts related to thunderstorms. ...Northern New York... While boundary-layer mixing will continue to occur within the warming post-frontal environment, sufficient residual low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) in the presence of relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -16C at 500 mb) will support modest destabilization and minimal inhibition by mid-afternoon. Some stronger low-topped storms may develop over the region and/or spread east-southeastward out of Ontario. While not overly hot, sufficient boundary-layer mixing and semi-strong westerlies could yield some strong/locally severe storms with wind gusts, until around sunset. ...Central Plains... To the east of ongoing early day storms, additional thunderstorm development through late this afternoon/early evening is expected across Nebraska and northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas. This should semi-focus along a weak surface low and southwest/northeast-oriented boundary. Hot temperatures and deeply mixed boundary layers will be supportive of some stronger downdrafts amid modest-strength wind profiles. Strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with the multicells/clusters of storms that develop and spread southeastward late this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 08/31/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 08/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest for today as winds increase in response to a weak upper disturbance moving into the region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave approaching the northern CA coast. This feature will continue to move northeast through the day, and will foster increasing mid-level flow and thunderstorm chances over the region. ...Northern Great Basin and Columbia Gorge... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected from northeast CA/northwest NV into southern OR and through the Columbia Gorge. 00 UTC soundings along the West Coast sampled increasing mid/upper-level winds associated with the approaching upper wave. Such winds will overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through the day and support sustained surface winds between 15-20 mph. Deep boundary-layer mixing will foster frequent gusts between 25-35 mph, especially near terrain features. The driest conditions are expected across northeast CA/northwest NV into southern OR with afternoon RH minimums in the teens likely. To the north through the Columbia Gorge, better overnight RH recovery is noted, and some moisture advection through the Gorge will moderate RH reductions to some degree. However, minimum RH values in the low to mid 20s appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance, and should support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Dry thunderstorms... The 00 UTC BOI sounding sampled modest mid-level moisture, which is noted in water-vapor imagery advecting northward ahead of the approaching wave. This moisture should support 150-300 J/KG MUCAPE by late afternoon across northern WA into northern ID/northwest MT. Forecast soundings depict a deep, dry boundary layer over this region with PWAT values near 0.7 inch, which favors dry thunderstorms. Given the dry fuel status across the area (ERCs generally above the 90th percentile), a dry-lightning threat appears likely with any thunderstorm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 30 17:57:01 UTC 2022.

MD 1751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR VA..MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1751 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Areas affected...VA..MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301755Z - 302000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Surface observations reveal temperatures have climbed into the low 90s amid low 70s dewpoints across much of MD and VA. This heating has helped erode convective inhibition across the region ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface trough. Thunderstorms have developed along the leading edge of the large-scale forcing for ascent (as evidenced by the relatively sharp gradient in cloud cover). Given the downstream destabilization, the ongoing storms are expected to persist eastward into more of VA and MD. Even so, relatively warm thermodynamic profiles will temper instability, likely keeping storms near their current intensity. Primary risk with any of these storms is expected to be damaging wind gusts associated with water-loaded downbursts. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37308053 39537840 39567631 38847597 37907669 36687858 36628063 37308053 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... On the east side of a prominent upper ridge over the western CONUS, a weak mid-level perturbation should move southeastward across parts of the central Plains on Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to return northward through the day across the central High Plains on the western periphery of a surface high centered over eastern KS and MO. Scattered thunderstorms should develop from northeastern CO into NE Wednesday afternoon along and south of a weak boundary. Strong daytime heating will act to deeply mix the boundary layer across these regions, with forecast soundings showing inverted-v type soundings. Even though instability should remain fairly weak, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, substantial DCAPE should promote a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts with convective downdrafts as thunderstorms spread southeastward through the early evening. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should also foster some convective organization, with loosely organized clusters possible. ...Western New York... An amplified upper trough will continue eastward over the Northeast and eastern Canada on Wednesday. A mid-level shortwave embedded within this upper trough should overspread Ontario, southern Quebec, and NY through the day. Enhanced mid-level winds will accompany this feature, with strong deep-layer shear also present. Most guidance shows a band of thunderstorms developing and spreading quickly eastward across parts of western/northern NY Wednesday afternoon. Some risk for strong/gusty winds may accompany this convection, but instability is forecast to remain rather weak. Given the potential thermodynamic limitations, have opted to not include low severe wind probabilities at this time. But, trends will be monitored. ..Gleason.. 08/30/2022 Read more

MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NY...EASTERN PA...NORTHWEST NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1750 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Areas affected...Eastern NY...Eastern PA...Northwest NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301701Z - 301900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as thunderstorm coverage increases this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus from eastern PA and into eastern NY, with a few instances of convective initiation east of BGM. This deepening is occurring in the vicinity of weak surface troughing ahead a broad upper trough still back west over the Upper Great Lakes and the middle OH Valley. Expectation is for this trend to continue as large-scale forcing for ascent and modest low-level convergence persist. This should result in gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. The expectation is for these thunderstorms to develop within the moist and warm corridor ahead of the thicker cloud band, but to the west of the clearer skies and stronger diurnal heating from the lower Hudson Valley and across much of NJ. Steeper low-level lapse rates are expected in these areas of stronger heating, but this mixing will limit buoyancy and thunderstorm intensity. Expectation is for a predominantly multicellular storm mode, with limited updraft strength. Even so, a few water-loaded downbursts are still possible, particularly with any storms that are able develop strong updrafts. Storm mergers could also result in enough water loading to produce a damaging downburst. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 42647609 43507524 43727479 43797446 43767408 43647383 43457351 43007337 42397357 41067434 40167509 39787618 40017721 41277705 42647609 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain limited today. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the CONUS. A broad upper ridge will continue to build to the west across the Great Basin today. This will favor warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions across much of the West that will aid in drying fuels. However, this will also result in meager low to mid-level flow, mitigating overall fire weather potential. Localized concerns may emerge across parts of the northern Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Northern Great Basin into eastern Oregon... Locally breezy winds are possible this afternoon across the northern Great Basin into parts of eastern OR as deep boundary-layer mixing, combined with local terrain enhancements, support occasional gusts to 15-20 mph. Antecedent warm/dry conditions with RH values in the teens will allow for pockets of elevated conditions. Such conditions will likely remain too limited spatially and temporally to require highlights, but may result in local fire weather concerns - especially given the potential for holdover fires from early-morning lightning strikes across portions of northwest NV. Additional isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across eastern OR/western ID as the weak upper disturbance lifts north/northeast, but the probability of thunderstorms remains too limited to introduce lightning-driven highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM VA NORTHWARD TO NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon/evening from Virginia northward into New York and northern New England. ...VA to NY and northern New England this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough over IN/OH will move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and New England by tonight, along with an associated surface cold front. A thick cloud band precedes the midlevel trough and accompanies the frontal zone, and midlevel lapse rates are poor in the warm sector. Differential heating and ascent along the east edge of the thicker clouds will support thunderstorm development in bands early this afternoon from northern VA northward across central/eastern PA and NY. Surface temperatures warming into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, though poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively moist profiles in the zone of storm initiation will tend to mute downdraft potential. Thus, isolated strong outflow gusts and some wind damage may occur with the stronger clusters/line segments this afternoon in an environment with roughly 30 kt midlevel flow, but the potential for severe outflow winds appears to be low enough to maintain 5% wind/Marginal risk. ...Lower MS Valley area this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface temperatures to warm to near or just above 90 F, while boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained in the low-mid 70s. Forcing for ascent and vertical shear will be weak, but widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as convective inhibition is removed via daytime heating/mixing. Regional 12z soundings revealed the potential for afternoon MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, but relatively moist profiles will limit the potential for intense downdrafts. Isolated/localized wind damage could occur with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, but the potential for severe outflow winds appears too low to warrant adding an outlook area. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 08/30/2022 Read more

MD 1742 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Areas affected...northern Illinois and Indiana...southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527... Valid 291753Z - 292000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts remain possible across watch 527, and an additional watch may be needed downstream into parts of Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. DISCUSSION...A complex of storms with northern and southern outflow bulges has gradually strengthened this afternoon, with gusts generally 40-50 kt across northern IL. The northern section of this line is now crossing into Lake MI, and will eventually emerge into southwest Lower MI where strong instability is in place. The southern half of the complex also remains strong, and may become dominant as it moves down the 3000+ MLCAPE instability axis into IN later this afternoon. As such, an additional watch could be needed prior to 19Z. ..Jewell.. 08/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 42318797 42128799 41918800 41678831 41678879 41498894 41178910 40988926 40828908 40648860 40498825 40478723 40518562 41088497 41798477 42208489 42488539 42588603 42458783 42318797 Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLI TO 25 NE MLI TO 45 ENE MLI TO 35 WNW MMO TO 30 NNW MMO TO 30 SSE RFD TO 25 E JVL. ..JEWELL..08/29/22 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-031-037-043-053-063-071-073-075-089-091-093-095-097-099- 105-111-123-131-143-155-161-175-187-195-197-203-291840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY HENDERSON HENRY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY MARSHALL MERCER PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK WARREN WHITESIDE WILL WOODFORD INC007-073-089-111-127-291840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER Read more

WW 527 SEVERE TSTM IA IL LM 291510Z - 292100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeastern Iowa Northern Illinois Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1010 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Developing storms near the Mississippi River are expected to growth into a larger cluster through late morning into the afternoon, with an increase in the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail across northern Illinois. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from Moline IL to 65 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more