Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin. Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US. Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the east side of the northern Plains lee trough. ... Northern Plains ... Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs, isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will pose an increasing damaging wind threat. A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists. ... Southeast US to Southern New England ... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin. Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US. Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the east side of the northern Plains lee trough. ... Northern Plains ... Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs, isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will pose an increasing damaging wind threat. A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists. ... Southeast US to Southern New England ... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin. Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US. Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the east side of the northern Plains lee trough. ... Northern Plains ... Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs, isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will pose an increasing damaging wind threat. A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists. ... Southeast US to Southern New England ... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin. Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US. Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the east side of the northern Plains lee trough. ... Northern Plains ... Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs, isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will pose an increasing damaging wind threat. A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists. ... Southeast US to Southern New England ... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin. Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US. Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the east side of the northern Plains lee trough. ... Northern Plains ... Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs, isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will pose an increasing damaging wind threat. A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists. ... Southeast US to Southern New England ... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin. Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US. Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the east side of the northern Plains lee trough. ... Northern Plains ... Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs, isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will pose an increasing damaging wind threat. A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists. ... Southeast US to Southern New England ... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin. Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US. Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the east side of the northern Plains lee trough. ... Northern Plains ... Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs, isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will pose an increasing damaging wind threat. A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists. ... Southeast US to Southern New England ... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin. Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US. Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the east side of the northern Plains lee trough. ... Northern Plains ... Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs, isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will pose an increasing damaging wind threat. A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists. ... Southeast US to Southern New England ... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid Atlantic. More isolated activity is expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Middle Atlantic... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the central Great Lakes region by the end of the period. As the short wave advances east, a corridor of higher PW (currently extending from AR into the upper OH Valley) will be shunted downstream as a low-amplitude disturbance ejects toward the Mid Atlantic. While some suppression of the height field can be expected late, it appears the weak disturbance should be the primary mechanism for encouraging somewhat stronger southwesterly flow which would extend as far south as central VA. Even so, 0-6km bulk shear is only expected to be on the order of 20-25kt, but favorably oriented for clusters and short line segments. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates, but high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters. Convective temperatures will be breached by 17-18z as readings climb into the mid 80s, and scattered thunderstorms should readily develop from central PA into central VA. This activity will then propagate toward the Mid Atlantic Coast with an attendant risk for damaging winds. ...Plains/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is forecast to hold across the southwestern U.S. through the day1 period; although, northwesterly flow is expected to increase a bit along the eastern periphery of this feature over the High Plains. As a result, high-level diffluent flow will be noted across the southern Plains into southern MO. At the surface, low-level boundaries/convergence will prove weak, and left-over convective debris will likely prove influential in late-afternoon development. Early this morning, an MCS was propagating south across eastern NE/southwest IA. This complex will likely advance into southeast KS/southwest MO by sunrise. It's not entirely clear how organized this cluster will be at the start of the period, but convective outflow will likely contribute to additional development later in the day. Strong boundary-layer heating will also aid isolated thunderstorm development across the High Plains of eastern WY/CO/NM. This activity will spread southeast during the evening with a risk for hail/wind. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/08/2025 Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BUB TO 30 W SDA TO 10 NW SDA TO 25 NE SDA TO 45 SE DNS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601 ..GLEASON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC029-071-137-145-080540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS FREMONT MONTGOMERY PAGE NEC011-023-025-035-059-067-071-077-079-081-093-095-097-109-121- 125-129-131-141-143-151-155-159-163-169-175-183-185-080540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUTLER CASS CLAY FILLMORE GAGE GARFIELD GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS OTOE PLATTE POLK SALINE SAUNDERS SEWARD SHERMAN Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BUB TO 30 W SDA TO 10 NW SDA TO 25 NE SDA TO 45 SE DNS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601 ..GLEASON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC029-071-137-145-080540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS FREMONT MONTGOMERY PAGE NEC011-023-025-035-059-067-071-077-079-081-093-095-097-109-121- 125-129-131-141-143-151-155-159-163-169-175-183-185-080540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUTLER CASS CLAY FILLMORE GAGE GARFIELD GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS OTOE PLATTE POLK SALINE SAUNDERS SEWARD SHERMAN Read more

MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Iowa...southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495... Valid 080344Z - 080515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging gusts may spread a little southeast of the current watch. The need for a downstream watch into Missouri is uncertain. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has evolved into a somewhat organized/bowing segment that has recently produced measured gusts up to 67 mph in the Omaha area. Local radar images suggest that convective outflow is several miles ahead of the primary convective cores, with a 40-50 kt rear inflow signature. The orientation of the low-level shear vectors ahead of the convection suggests that an anafrontal configuration should be maintained with very gradual weakening of the storms over time. However, there is still potential for isolated damaging/severe outflow gusts which could spread a couple of counties southeast of the current watch configuration. Given the expectation for gradual weakening overnight, the need for a new/downstream watch into MO is somewhat uncertain. ..Thompson.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 41059552 41529503 41439457 41129426 40669439 40439460 40099537 40029606 40269669 40739675 40869649 41059552 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW OFK TO 25 NNE LNK TO 10 NE OMA TO 35 ENE DNS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601 ..THOMPSON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-027-029-071-129-137-145-155-165-080440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CARROLL CASS FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY NEC011-023-025-035-059-067-071-077-079-081-093-095-097-109-121- 125-129-131-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-169-175-183-185- 080440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUTLER CASS CLAY FILLMORE GAGE GARFIELD GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS OTOE Read more

MD 1600 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN OK PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO...southwest KS...and parts of the northern OK Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 080104Z - 080230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts may accompany an evolving small line of storms as it tracks eastward tonight. DISCUSSION...A small line of storms has emerged out of colliding outflow boundaries in southeastern CO. Around 40 kt of line-orthogonal effective shear and steep deep-layer lapse rates/sufficient surface-based buoyancy may support the maintenance of this line with eastward extent. Gradual nocturnal cooling and a limited low-level mass response cast uncertainty on overall longevity, though recent convective trends suggest some potential for severe wind gusts as it tracks eastward tonight. The risk may remain too localized for a watch, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36870318 37380353 37880347 38260311 38330257 38260142 37940092 37200091 36770137 36680238 36870318 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0495 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1599 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493... Valid 080045Z - 080215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading southeastward out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 into tonight. A downstream/replacement watch will likely be needed for parts of the area toward the expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493. DISCUSSION...A large cluster of merging thunderstorms is drifting slowly southeastward across northeast NE, where several reports of severe winds and large hail have occurred. Given the large mass of storms and around 30 kt of west-northwesterly steering flow (sampled by OAX VWP), this activity will likely continue tracking southeastward into tonight. A warm/moist boundary layer and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates downstream should support a continued risk of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail with southeastward extent. This will likely warrant a downstream/replacement watch for parts of southeast NE into western IA toward the expiration time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 (03Z). ..Weinman/Gleason.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40829562 40319668 40199808 40459879 41029931 41729933 42269918 42449881 42659730 42809651 42789583 42429531 41959515 41289516 40829562 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FAR TO 20 SE GFK TO 35 SE TVF. WW 494 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080300Z. ..THOMPSON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-087-107-119-080300- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN NORMAN POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FAR TO 20 SE GFK TO 35 SE TVF. WW 494 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080300Z. ..THOMPSON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-087-107-119-080300- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN NORMAN POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FAR TO 20 SE GFK TO 35 SE TVF. WW 494 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080300Z. ..THOMPSON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-087-107-119-080300- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN NORMAN POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FAR TO 20 SE GFK TO 35 SE TVF. WW 494 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080300Z. ..THOMPSON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-087-107-119-080300- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN NORMAN POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more