SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FAR TO 20 SE GFK TO 35 SE TVF. WW 494 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080300Z. ..THOMPSON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-087-107-119-080300- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN NORMAN POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FAR TO 20 SE GFK TO 35 SE TVF. WW 494 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080300Z. ..THOMPSON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-087-107-119-080300- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN NORMAN POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494

2 months ago
WW 494 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 072030Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Minnesota Eastern North Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across the watch area this afternoon, with a few intense/supercell storms possible. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are all possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Hallock MN to 20 miles south of Fargo ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAA TO 30 SSE GLD TO 30 W LBF. ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC109-153-193-203-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN RAWLINS THOMAS WICHITA NEC063-085-087-111-145-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAA TO 30 SSE GLD TO 30 W LBF. ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC109-153-193-203-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN RAWLINS THOMAS WICHITA NEC063-085-087-111-145-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAA TO 30 SSE GLD TO 30 W LBF. ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC109-153-193-203-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN RAWLINS THOMAS WICHITA NEC063-085-087-111-145-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAA TO 30 SSE GLD TO 30 W LBF. ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC109-153-193-203-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN RAWLINS THOMAS WICHITA NEC063-085-087-111-145-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAA TO 30 SSE GLD TO 30 W LBF. ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC109-153-193-203-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN RAWLINS THOMAS WICHITA NEC063-085-087-111-145-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAA TO 30 SSE GLD TO 30 W LBF. ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC109-153-193-203-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN RAWLINS THOMAS WICHITA NEC063-085-087-111-145-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK LINCOLN RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492

2 months ago
WW 492 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 071950Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase over northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming, spreading eastward across the watch area through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Sidney NE to 55 miles south southwest of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE VTN TO 30 S YKN TO 20 NW SPW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-133-141-143-149-193-080240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY NEC003-009-011-017-021-039-043-051-071-089-115-119-139-149-167- 173-179-183-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BROWN BURT CUMING DAKOTA DIXON GARFIELD HOLT LOUP MADISON PIERCE ROCK STANTON THURSTON WAYNE WHEELER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE VTN TO 30 S YKN TO 20 NW SPW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-133-141-143-149-193-080240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY NEC003-009-011-017-021-039-043-051-071-089-115-119-139-149-167- 173-179-183-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BROWN BURT CUMING DAKOTA DIXON GARFIELD HOLT LOUP MADISON PIERCE ROCK STANTON THURSTON WAYNE WHEELER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE VTN TO 30 S YKN TO 20 NW SPW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-133-141-143-149-193-080240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY NEC003-009-011-017-021-039-043-051-071-089-115-119-139-149-167- 173-179-183-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BROWN BURT CUMING DAKOTA DIXON GARFIELD HOLT LOUP MADISON PIERCE ROCK STANTON THURSTON WAYNE WHEELER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE VTN TO 30 S YKN TO 20 NW SPW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-133-141-143-149-193-080240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY NEC003-009-011-017-021-039-043-051-071-089-115-119-139-149-167- 173-179-183-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BROWN BURT CUMING DAKOTA DIXON GARFIELD HOLT LOUP MADISON PIERCE ROCK STANTON THURSTON WAYNE WHEELER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE VTN TO 30 S YKN TO 20 NW SPW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-133-141-143-149-193-080240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY NEC003-009-011-017-021-039-043-051-071-089-115-119-139-149-167- 173-179-183-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BROWN BURT CUMING DAKOTA DIXON GARFIELD HOLT LOUP MADISON PIERCE ROCK STANTON THURSTON WAYNE WHEELER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE VTN TO 30 S YKN TO 20 NW SPW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 ..WEINMAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-133-141-143-149-193-080240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY NEC003-009-011-017-021-039-043-051-071-089-115-119-139-149-167- 173-179-183-080240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BROWN BURT CUMING DAKOTA DIXON GARFIELD HOLT LOUP MADISON PIERCE ROCK STANTON THURSTON WAYNE WHEELER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493

2 months ago
WW 493 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 072015Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeat Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a line across southeast South Dakota. These storms will spread across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two is possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles east of Sioux Falls SD to 15 miles north northwest of Ainsworth NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more
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