SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are the main threats. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted, especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE, partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail. Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much of the evening. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FAR TO 15 NNE GFK TO 30 ENE TVF. ..THOMPSON..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-087-107-113-119-125-080140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE NDC017-097-080140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE PUB TO 35 NNW ITR TO 35 E SNY TO 25 N TOR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 ..WEINMAN..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-061-063-095-115-125-080040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-080040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-029-049-057-069-085-087-101-123-135-080040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC MD 1598

2 months ago
MD 1598 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... FOR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Southeast SD...northeast NE...and far northwest IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493... Valid 072252Z - 080015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 continues. SUMMARY...Risk of large hail and severe wind gusts will continue spreading/expanding southward in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters are spreading slowly southward along a composite outflow-front in southeastern SD, which will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts. Ahead of the front, differential heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) is supporting discrete supercell development within a strongly unstable air mass. Given around 40 kt of effective shear and modest clockwise hodograph curvature (per nearby VWP), discrete supercells will be capable of producing large hail (potentially up to 2 inches in diameter) and locally severe wind gusts. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43269974 43299875 43749697 43749648 43629604 43299588 42889582 42279674 41989815 41979922 42149980 42480007 42920013 43269974 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PIR TO 5 E MHE TO 5 WSW FSD TO 10 WNW RWF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598 ..WEINMAN..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-119-141-143-149-167-193-080040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC101-105-133-080040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MURRAY NOBLES ROCK NEC003-009-015-017-027-043-051-071-089-103-107-115-139-149-179- 183-080040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PIR TO 5 E MHE TO 5 WSW FSD TO 10 WNW RWF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598 ..WEINMAN..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-119-141-143-149-167-193-080040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC101-105-133-080040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MURRAY NOBLES ROCK NEC003-009-015-017-027-043-051-071-089-103-107-115-139-149-179- 183-080040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC MD 1598

2 months ago
MD 1598 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... FOR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Southeast SD...northeast NE...and far northwest IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493... Valid 072252Z - 080015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 continues. SUMMARY...Risk of large hail and severe wind gusts will continue spreading/expanding southward in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters are spreading slowly southward along a composite outflow-front in southeastern SD, which will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts. Ahead of the front, differential heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) is supporting discrete supercell development within a strongly unstable air mass. Given around 40 kt of effective shear and modest clockwise hodograph curvature (per nearby VWP), discrete supercells will be capable of producing large hail (potentially up to 2 inches in diameter) and locally severe wind gusts. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43269974 43299875 43749697 43749648 43629604 43299588 42889582 42279674 41989815 41979922 42149980 42480007 42920013 43269974 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 1597

2 months ago
MD 1597 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NE...AND FAR NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO...southwest NE...and far northwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492... Valid 072228Z - 080000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and severe wind gusts continue across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492. Some localized upscale growth may support an increasing severe-wind risk into this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in intensity and coverage across parts of northeastern CO into the southwestern NE Panhandle as they impinge on a moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and a long/straight hodograph (around 40 kt of deep-layer shear per mesoanalysis/VWP) will continue to support embedded supercell structures and organized clusters capable of producing large hail and locally severe wind gusts. With time, continued storm mergers amid strong convective outflow may favor some localized upscale growth into one or more coherent clusters into this evening. This evolution would support an increasing risk of severe wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph). ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39430288 40560321 41340327 41680313 41890277 41880219 41520179 40100142 39460166 39350241 39430288 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493

2 months ago
WW 493 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 072015Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeat Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a line across southeast South Dakota. These storms will spread across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two is possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles east of Sioux Falls SD to 15 miles north northwest of Ainsworth NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FAR TO 40 NW GFK TO 30 ESE HCO. ..THOMPSON..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-087-089-107-113-119-125-080040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE NDC017-035-091-097-099-080040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS GRAND FORKS STEELE TRAILL WALSH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494

2 months ago
WW 494 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 072030Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Minnesota Eastern North Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across the watch area this afternoon, with a few intense/supercell storms possible. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are all possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Hallock MN to 20 miles south of Fargo ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more
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