Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0492 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0492 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 7 19:26:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more