Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072028Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail/damaging winds expected to to continue. Watch issuance is possible but remains uncertain in the short term. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a few isolated storms that have developed during peak heating amid a very unstable airmass, characterized by MLCAPE values nearing 3000 J/kg. Deep layer shear has remained somewhat marginal thus far, perhaps approaching 30-35 kt, but is forecast to increase with time. Thus, storms should exhibit supercell characteristics, with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. Southeasterly low-level flow is promoting at least some elongation of hodographs, but low-level shear remains weak in general. Thus, the tornado threat appears low but cannot be ruled out. These storms are expected to remain isolated, and thus, watch issuance is not anticipated in the short term. However, convective trends will be monitored should a watch be needed for the region. ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40169732 40119843 41029906 41829869 41969762 41529693 40989700 40169732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND INTO CENTRAL MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Far northeast New York...northern Vermont and New Hampshire...and into central Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072003Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms may pose a severe wind/hail risk through the afternoon and early evening hours. This threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows a gradual maturation of convection across far northeast NY and across central ME along/ahead of a cold front. Temperatures warming into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s is slowly eroding inhibition with MLCAPE increasing to around 500-1000 J/kg region wide. This warming trend should continue and will promote further thunderstorm intensification over the next couple of hours. 30-40 knot mid-level winds in proximity to a weakening upper trough are supporting sufficient hodograph elongation for organized convection. While convective mode will likely transition to predominantly a semi-organized convective band due to strong flow along the initiating cold front, an initial supercell or two appears possible and may pose a severe hail/wind risk through the afternoon - especially across central ME where forcing for ascent is currently more nebulous. With time, strong to severe winds should become the predominant hazard as a band of storms begins to emerge. Despite these concerns, the overall severe threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 44976732 44926764 44217268 44037357 43907416 43957473 44217494 44497457 44877394 45047328 45057156 45177116 45667061 46077007 45996787 45926754 45766700 45456690 45146705 44976732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071955Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are possible this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar show convection developing along a cold front positioned from northeast North Dakota extending southwestward, and along a warm front extending into northeast Minnesota. This activity is developing in a region where skies have remained clear in proximity to passing cirrus clouds to the immediate south. In addition, cool mid-level temperatures are overspreading the region, in association with an upper-level trough. These factors are contributing to destabilization that is yielding MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg. Ample effective shear of 40-45 kt is also present, associated with the aforementioned trough. Storms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and severity throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A tornado will also be possible with any storm that can favorably interact with aforementioned warm front. Coverage of storms remains uncertain in the short term, given the extent of the cirrus shield limiting destabilization. However, at least some CAM solutions suggest greater coverage may materialize. Thus, convective trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon/evening. ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46209904 46929958 47909867 48659858 48929753 48199615 46769546 46129652 46209904 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-119-141-143-149-167-193-072240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC081-083-101-105-117-133-072240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-009-015-017-027-043-051-071-089-103-107-115-139-149-179- 183-072240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOYD Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-119-141-143-149-167-193-072240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC081-083-101-105-117-133-072240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-009-015-017-027-043-051-071-089-103-107-115-139-149-179- 183-072240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOYD Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 072240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-072240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-069-085-087-101-105-123-135-157- 072240- Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 072240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-072240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-069-085-087-101-105-123-135-157- 072240- Read more

MD 1592 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...northeast Colorado...far southeast Wyoming...southwest Nebraska...and northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071923Z - 072130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms expected by mid/late afternoon, posing a threat for severe wind/hail. Watch possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite show a broad area of terrain generated convection over the mountains of central/northern Colorado into far southeast Wyoming. Additional convection is now forming downstream of this activity, along the lee of the Rockies. Clear skies have promoted strong insolation amid a relatively moist low-level airmass for the central High Plains, with dew point temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F. This is contributing to an west-to-east instability gradient, with MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg in far northeast Colorado. Surface observations also indicate a weak upslope flow regime in this region in advance of a stalling cold front across the panhandle of Nebraska. The aforementioned convection should continue to develop and propagate eastward off the high terrain with time. As this occurs, storms will encounter greater instability as MLCAPE values are forecast to approach 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear is forecast to increase throughout the afternoon/evening, approaching 35-45 kt. This will help to promote storm organization into supercell/multicell modes, with damaging winds and severe hail expected. With time, cold pools may promote upscale growth into an MCS this evening, transitioning into more of a damaging wind threat. Given this potential, the area is being monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon. ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41050528 41770466 42130290 41590110 40150044 38890075 38600147 38570347 38660487 39630541 41050528 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0494 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0494 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0493 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1591 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into the Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071827Z - 072030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move to the southeast through the afternoon with an attendant threat for sporadic damaging gusts. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms have developed within a weak confluence/differential heating zone in place from eastern AR to Middle TN. Recent vertically integrated liquid imagery shows several deeper convective cores developing as daytime heating drives MLCAPE values into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Regional VWPs are all sampling very weak winds throughout the column, suggesting that storm longevity, organization, and the overall severe threat will likely be very limited. Consequently, watch issuance is not expected; however, low-level lapse rates are increasing to around 8 C/km ahead of the convective band, coupled with the high-water content of the air mass (PWATs between 1.75 to 2 inches), will promote strong downward accelerations of water-loaded downdrafts. As such, a few sporadic strong to severe gusts (most likely 45-60 mph) will be possible as storms migrate southeast into the axis of higher moisture/MLCAPE. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34889167 35059123 35199063 35239012 35318926 35398895 35628849 35988766 36438683 36608643 36768607 36788586 36768543 36658515 36528483 36278467 35928467 35548484 35258515 34988555 34848602 34688657 34538704 34358789 34059007 34089091 34189126 34329153 34449168 34629176 34889167 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Eastern South Dakota...southwest Minnesota...far southeast North Dakota...and far northeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071811Z - 072015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Gradual intensification and new storm development expected in the next few hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, which may necessitate watch issuance later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends show a few areas of ongoing/regenerative thunderstorm activity, one across parts of central South Dakota and one with slightly more intense convection across northeast South Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and west-central Minnesota. The latter area has shown transient attempts at organization but remained sub-severe thus far. Downstream of this activity, daytime heating has allowed for increasing destabilization amid a moist low-level airmass with dew point temperatures in the mid/upper 60s F. This is supported by visible satellite showing a developing cumulus field across eastern South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. The expectation is for storms across northeast South Dakota and vicinity to continue gradually intensifying this afternoon in association with broad ascent from a mid-level trough overspreading the region. MLCAPE values are forecast to peak near 1000 J/kg immediately downstream, which would result in more isolated coverage of severe wind/hail with these storms. Farther south, more isolated storm development should commence by mid to late afternoon across east-central and southeast South Dakota, as supported by recent CAM guidance, where continued destabilization should result in MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg. Effective shear will increase with the aforementioned approaching trough, nearing 35-40 kt. This should promote a mix of multicells and supercells initially, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. With time, upscale growth of convection is possible if cold pool organization can occur. Given this potential, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance later this afternoon. ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45839938 46169887 46099681 45919589 45139529 44219526 43059650 42529722 42719914 43919975 45839938 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1589 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071804Z - 072030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage, and likely intensify, through the afternoon hours across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and western New York. Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway from central OH into western NY as a cold front, locally augmented by lake-breeze boundaries, pushes southeast into a weakly capped environment (as evidenced by pre-frontal convection developing within a broad agitated cumulus field). This front should continue to push east/southeast through the afternoon as temperatures continue to warm into the mid/upper 80s. These warming low-level conditions will not only remove any lingering inhibition, but will also increase boundary-layer depths with LCLs approaching 1 to 1.5 km. This will promote downdraft accelerations with an attendant increase in damaging/severe wind potential. The wind threat may be maximized by late afternoon if a more consolidated cluster can emerge - most likely driven by stronger forcing along the cold front - and propagate either along the front or into the warm sector. While this potential is noted, weak deep-layer flow/wind shear (0-6 km bulk shear recently estimated to be around 15-20 knots) should limit the potential for widespread organized convection. As such, watch issuance is not currently anticipated, but convective trends will be monitored given the very moist/buoyant environment and strong forcing for ascent along the front. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 42257527 41967575 39148154 38928205 38818256 38858302 38988339 39248369 39558390 39958392 40298389 40738301 41858020 43237766 43477711 43637662 43787594 43757556 43607524 43407507 43017507 42617506 42257527 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more