Severe Storms

MD 1591 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into the Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071827Z - 072030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move to the southeast through the afternoon with an attendant threat for sporadic damaging gusts. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms have developed within a weak confluence/differential heating zone in place from eastern AR to Middle TN. Recent vertically integrated liquid imagery shows several deeper convective cores developing as daytime heating drives MLCAPE values into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Regional VWPs are all sampling very weak winds throughout the column, suggesting that storm longevity, organization, and the overall severe threat will likely be very limited. Consequently, watch issuance is not expected; however, low-level lapse rates are increasing to around 8 C/km ahead of the convective band, coupled with the high-water content of the air mass (PWATs between 1.75 to 2 inches), will promote strong downward accelerations of water-loaded downdrafts. As such, a few sporadic strong to severe gusts (most likely 45-60 mph) will be possible as storms migrate southeast into the axis of higher moisture/MLCAPE. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34889167 35059123 35199063 35239012 35318926 35398895 35628849 35988766 36438683 36608643 36768607 36788586 36768543 36658515 36528483 36278467 35928467 35548484 35258515 34988555 34848602 34688657 34538704 34358789 34059007 34089091 34189126 34329153 34449168 34629176 34889167 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Eastern South Dakota...southwest Minnesota...far southeast North Dakota...and far northeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071811Z - 072015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Gradual intensification and new storm development expected in the next few hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, which may necessitate watch issuance later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends show a few areas of ongoing/regenerative thunderstorm activity, one across parts of central South Dakota and one with slightly more intense convection across northeast South Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and west-central Minnesota. The latter area has shown transient attempts at organization but remained sub-severe thus far. Downstream of this activity, daytime heating has allowed for increasing destabilization amid a moist low-level airmass with dew point temperatures in the mid/upper 60s F. This is supported by visible satellite showing a developing cumulus field across eastern South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. The expectation is for storms across northeast South Dakota and vicinity to continue gradually intensifying this afternoon in association with broad ascent from a mid-level trough overspreading the region. MLCAPE values are forecast to peak near 1000 J/kg immediately downstream, which would result in more isolated coverage of severe wind/hail with these storms. Farther south, more isolated storm development should commence by mid to late afternoon across east-central and southeast South Dakota, as supported by recent CAM guidance, where continued destabilization should result in MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg. Effective shear will increase with the aforementioned approaching trough, nearing 35-40 kt. This should promote a mix of multicells and supercells initially, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. With time, upscale growth of convection is possible if cold pool organization can occur. Given this potential, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance later this afternoon. ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45839938 46169887 46099681 45919589 45139529 44219526 43059650 42529722 42719914 43919975 45839938 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1589 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071804Z - 072030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage, and likely intensify, through the afternoon hours across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and western New York. Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway from central OH into western NY as a cold front, locally augmented by lake-breeze boundaries, pushes southeast into a weakly capped environment (as evidenced by pre-frontal convection developing within a broad agitated cumulus field). This front should continue to push east/southeast through the afternoon as temperatures continue to warm into the mid/upper 80s. These warming low-level conditions will not only remove any lingering inhibition, but will also increase boundary-layer depths with LCLs approaching 1 to 1.5 km. This will promote downdraft accelerations with an attendant increase in damaging/severe wind potential. The wind threat may be maximized by late afternoon if a more consolidated cluster can emerge - most likely driven by stronger forcing along the cold front - and propagate either along the front or into the warm sector. While this potential is noted, weak deep-layer flow/wind shear (0-6 km bulk shear recently estimated to be around 15-20 knots) should limit the potential for widespread organized convection. As such, watch issuance is not currently anticipated, but convective trends will be monitored given the very moist/buoyant environment and strong forcing for ascent along the front. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 42257527 41967575 39148154 38928205 38818256 38858302 38988339 39248369 39558390 39958392 40298389 40738301 41858020 43237766 43477711 43637662 43787594 43757556 43607524 43407507 43017507 42617506 42257527 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ...Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ...OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ..Lyons.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Northwest and Great Basin... An approaching mid-level trough and associated increasing mid-level west winds will introduce elevated fire weather conditions into the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjacent leeward slopes of the Cascades Tuesday. A mid-level low off the coast of northern CA will provide supportive dynamics for isolated thunderstorms across central OR. Limited precipitation with these thunderstorms will increase fire ignition potential amid receptive fuels primarily across the higher terrain of central and east-central OR. Elevated fire weather conditions atop dry fuels are still expected across much of central and eastern NV and far western UT where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity in the 10-15% range will be collocated. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more