Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more