Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with large hail the main threat, and an instance of very large hail cannot be ruled out. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the Southwest as a low-amplitude mid-level trough approaches the Northeast on Wednesday. A pronounced mid-level impulse will crest the upper ridge and traverse the northern Rockies, supporting the rapid onset of surface lee troughing across the northern Plains. Here, rich low-level moisture will advect northward beneath colder temperatures aloft to support strong buoyancy amid modest vertical wind shear. At least isolated severe storms are likely. Isolated strong thunderstorms may also develop along portions of the East Coast. ...Northern Plains... A conditional severe threat is expected to develop ahead of the surface trough on Wednesday afternoon. Dewpoints into the 60s F will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates by afternoon peak heating, yielding 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest northwesterly 500 mb flow rotating around the ridge will overspread the aforementioned southerly flow, resulting in modestly elongated hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. A dryline feature will advance eastward during the afternoon, serving as a primary lifting mechanism in tandem with strong surface heating given weak upper support. Isolated supercell development is possible, accompanied by a severe wind/hail risk. Given the degree of buoyancy in place, a conditional risk of 2+ inch hail exists should a supercell develop and become sustained. Weak upper support and lack of confidence for greater storm coverage is the primary limiting factor for higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Portions of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic... Scattered thunderstorms should develop atop a moist, weakly capped boundary layer by early afternoon. Though vertical wind shear should be weak and lapse rates will be poor, surface heating of the moist boundary layer will support 2000-3000 J/kg of tall/thin CAPE. As such, the stronger storms may produce wet downbursts and subsequent isolated damaging gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will gradually approach the northern CA coast as it loosely phases with a stronger midlevel trough moving eastward across British Columbia on Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will aid in isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central OR. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deeply mixed boundary layer will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. At the same time, a belt of moderate-strong midlevel winds peripheral to the trough in British Columbia will cross the Cascades. This will promote dry/breezy downslope winds in the Columbia Basin, with the strongest winds expected through the Cascade Gaps. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across parts of central/southern NV, where elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1587 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491... FOR WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491... Valid 070429Z - 070630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491 continues. SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorms will propagate southeast across ww491. Damaging winds are the primary concern. DISCUSSION...A very weak short-wave trough appears to have crested the ridge and is digging southeast across the central High Plains late this evening. Scattered robust convection has gradually coalesced into a linear MCS which currently extends from northwestern KS into extreme eastern CO. A narrow axis of modest instability is noted across southwest KS, along and north of a boundary that stretches across the OK Panhandle into far southeast CO. This boundary is being reinforced a bit by scattered convection along the KS/OK border into northwest OK. Net result will likely be for the ongoing MCS to continue tracking southeast, aided in part by southeasterly low-level inflow. 56kt gust was reported at GLD with the squall line, and this type of wind may continue to be reported as the MCS propagates toward southwestern KS over the next several hours. ..Darrow.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR... LAT...LON 44260440 44390275 44840139 43240152 43580439 44260440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LAA TO 30 WNW GCK TO 35 NNW GCK TO 55 N GCK TO 50 WSW HLC. ..MARSH..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC055-063-067-069-075-081-093-101-171-070740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY GOVE GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LAA TO 30 WNW GCK TO 35 NNW GCK TO 55 N GCK TO 50 WSW HLC. ..MARSH..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC055-063-067-069-075-081-093-101-171-070740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY GOVE GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more