Severe Storms

MD 1584 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489...490... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHWEST KS...AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...northwest KS...and southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...490... Valid 062303Z - 070030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489, 490 continues. SUMMARY...A focused/favorable corridor for large hail and severe wind gusts is evident over the central High Plains for the next few hours -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watches 489/490. DISCUSSION...An intense, nearly stationary supercell has evolved out of a cluster of storms over far northeastern CO. Farther west, a separate cluster of storms is showing signs of upscale growth. To the southeast of this activity, a gradually stalling outflow boundary is arcing northwestward from northwest KS into northeastern CO. This outflow boundary may provide a focused mesoscale corridor for the maintenance of the supercell (and additional nearby convection) with southeastward extent into this evening. Along this corridor, around 40 kt of effective shear (locally boosted/enhanced along the boundary) and moderate surface-based instability will favor large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts with any established supercells/clusters. Some upscale growth may also occur with time, as the western cluster may have a tendency of merging with the downstream storms/supercells -- posing an increasing risk of severe-wind gusts into this evening. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39890262 40070379 40310432 40510443 41030408 41510398 41740355 41700294 41480238 40730187 39900146 39630170 39610203 39710228 39890262 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1583 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE FAR EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1583 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southern Kansas...northern Oklahoma...and the far eastern TX/OK Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062154Z - 070000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible with the stronger storms into this evening. A watch is not currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered outflow-dominant thunderstorms are evolving along a stalled surface boundary from southern KS into northern OK. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist boundary layer are yielding strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of these storms. While the environment is favorable for sporadic severe downbursts and isolated large hail, generally weak deep-layer flow/shear limits confidence in storm organization/longevity. Therefore, a watch is not currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38029696 38089627 37719574 37229576 36879632 35809946 35849996 36210018 36500025 36890010 37249965 38029696 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-070040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC057-087-145-070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 490 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 062140Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Kansas Far Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms that have developed along an outflow boundary along the Kansas/Nebraska state line should continue to pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter this afternoon and evening as they spread slowly southward. A cluster of thunderstorms may eventually spread eastward out of Colorado later this evening, with a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds. If this scenario occurs, peak gusts could reach up to 65-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Goodland KS to 25 miles north northeast of Hill City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584 ..WEINMAN..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 070040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-070040- Read more

WW 489 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 061920Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify through the afternoon off the foothills of northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming. A few severe storms are expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Torrington WY to 50 miles south southeast of Limon CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...north-central North Carolina into far southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062044Z - 062215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado or strong wind gust will remain possible with the convection near the remnant core of TD Chantal. DISCUSSION...Afternoon imagery shows the remnants of TD Chantal located across portions of north-central NC near 34.4 deg N 79.2 deg W. Within the broader precip shield, a few deeper convective towers have remained strong with occasional cyclonic rotation observed. Enhanced low-level shear (0-1km SRH near 200 m2/s2) near the remnant center will remain strong enough to support occasional low-level mesocyclones with this convection. Despite weak buoyancy (MLCAPE (~500 J/kg) the moist surface environment and some deeper storms may remain capable of a brief tornado two and damaging gust into this evening. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, and the interaction of the circulation with higher terrain to the west should slowly limit the threat tonight. ..Lyons.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35307970 35618006 36217998 36867950 36907877 36587833 36477861 36077903 35617917 35317918 35307970 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062026Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a few supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts and small hail this afternoon/evening. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2020 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed convection was strengthening across portions of Maine. As temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s, around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed with dewpoints in the 60s. While not overly strong, this buoyancy should continue to support occasional stronger updrafts with convection across the region. Deep-layer shear is supportive of storm organization with the KCBW VAD showing an elongated hodograph and 30-45 kt of bulk shear. Weak mid-level rotation has already been observed and the environment suggests a few supercell/organized multi cell structures are possible. With poor lapse rates and relatively limited buoyancy, damaging gusts still appear to be the primary risk. However, some small hail and a brief tornado are possible with the stronger rotating storms. HRRR guidance and observations suggests additional storm development/intensification is plausible this afternoon with more storms developing/moving in from eastern Canada this evening. While some severe risk is possible, confidence in severe coverage is low owing to weak forcing and limited buoyancy. Convective trends are being monitored, but a WW is currently unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 45327107 47017003 47546872 46806725 45486706 44986795 44606972 44637058 45327107 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more