Severe Storms

MD 1580 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061918Z - 062145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms emanating off the southern Rockies will pose an isolated severe wind/hail threat through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development within the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento mountains is evident in recent GOES imagery. Weak mid-level flow over the region will likely result in slow storm propagation off the higher terrain, but as this occurs storms will eventually move into an unseasonably moist air mass downstream (dewpoint values in the 75th-90th percentile for early July). This moisture is contributing to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE that should promote thunderstorm maintenance, and possibly intensification, through late evening. A combination of semi-discrete cells and propagating clusters is expected with an attendant threat for isolated large hail (most likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) and sporadic severe wind gusts. The overall severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated given the modest kinematic environment, which should preclude the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33030448 32680468 32490487 32390508 32420536 32660576 32930586 33280589 35630566 36190559 36640546 36800533 36890500 36930461 36830414 36690345 36310317 36060313 33030448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0490 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0490 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1578 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1578 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado to southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061838Z - 062115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the higher terrain of the central Rockies will spread east and intensify through the afternoon. As this occurs, the threat for severe winds, and possibly large hail, will increase. Watch issuance is probable later this afternoon as thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data shows a gradual uptick in convection within the higher terrain of central to northern CO and far southern WY as daytime heating drives increasing orographic ascent within a weakly capped air mass. This initial activity is expected to spread east into the High Plains over the coming hours given 30-40 knot westerly flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Storm intensification is expected as convection overspreads a relatively moist low-level air mass (dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 50s downstream) and as lingering inhibition is removed via deepening boundary-layer heating/mixing. Across southeast WY and western NE, slightly stronger zonal flow aloft coupled with weak easterly low-level winds should promote adequate deep-layer shear for a couple of supercells with an attendant large hail risk (possibly up to 2 inches in diameter). The tornado threat may also be locally greatest across this region due to augmented low-level shear/SRH on the immediate cool side of a residual outflow boundary emanating out of central NE. Further south across CO, observed dewpoint depressions and short-term forecast soundings suggest LCL heights should approach 2.5 to 3 km as temperatures warm into the upper 80s, which will promote strong downdraft evaporative cooling and accelerations as well as rapid cold pool production. Strong to severe downburst winds and sporadic large hail appear likely within initially discrete cells moving off the terrain and/or developing within the DCVZ, but upscale growth into organized clusters is anticipated later this afternoon/evening with a more widespread severe wind risk (with gusts possibly as high as 70-80 mph). Watch issuance is probable as these threats begin to emerge in the coming hours. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40170514 41190520 41680493 42020458 42360407 42430360 42350311 41860264 41360256 40730251 40160253 39340260 39050292 38330454 38280476 38310502 38560514 40170514 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1579 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Central to southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061857Z - 062100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms associated with a residual MCS will likely intensify to severe limits at times through the afternoon. Large hail and sporadic severe winds are possible, but the threat from this cluster of storms will likely remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a residual MCS across central NE has shown signs of re-intensification over the past hour based on lightning data, cloud-top temperatures, and echo top trends. Additionally, MRMS vertically integrated ice values are beginning to suggest that severe hail is possible with a few of the deeper/stronger cores. This intensification is likely being driven by increasing buoyancy associated with daytime heating of a moist air mass immediately downstream of the decaying MCS/outflow boundary. Latest VWP data and RAP mesoanalyses suggest that bulk shear over the region is somewhat modest (around 20-25 knots) over central NE with decreasing mid-level flow with southward extent into the reservoir of higher MLCAPE. Consequently, continued south/southeastward propagation/development of somewhat transient deeper convective cores is anticipated through peak heating, but confidence is low that well-organized/intense MCS development is imminent. Regardless, deeper cores behind the outflow boundary will likely pose a threat of large hail and sporadic strong to severe downburst winds. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, but watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41080112 41080037 41129994 41379928 41719889 41929862 41949824 41819780 41399745 40919743 40459758 40069788 39899853 39789938 39799998 39860040 39990082 40140109 40400122 40730125 40890126 41080112 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 062140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-062140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-062140- WY Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 062140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-062140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-062140- WY Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 062140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-062140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-062140- WY Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more