Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Far Northern California and Southern Oregon... Strengthening mid-level flow and associated weak ascent with a closed low off the coast of Northern CA combined with daytime boundary layer destabilization will provide for some isolated convection across the higher terrain of northern CA into south-central OR along and near the Cascades. Drier, more receptive fuels exist across far northwestern CA where recent precipitation was limited. In addition, gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms could impact ongoing fires across northern CA as well promoting new fire starts with limited precipitation expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to cover this threat. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge should remain in place over the southern Rockies through the day on Monday with a cutoff low off the California coast. The height gradient between these two features is expected to strengthen throughout the day, which may allow for a corridor of stronger surface flow (15-20 mph) with 5-10% RH across portions of southern Nevada. However, confidence in the overlap of this stronger surface flow with receptive fuels is not high. Therefore, will hold off on introducing Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1577 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1577 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061827Z - 062000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will be capable of isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. Storm organization potential is low, though some stronger clusters may emerge. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, satellite and radar imagery showed increasing convective development across southern lower MI. This initial activity has been slow to intensify along a weak cold front and in proximity to typical diurnal lake-induced boundaries. Driven largely by strong heating of a moist air mass and weak ascent, this trend should continue with scattered to numerous storms developing by early afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) will support some more robust updrafts with multi-cell storms. Some transient storm organization is possible into clusters or weak bowing structures owing to slightly stronger flow aloft around 25-30 kt. Poor mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km do not lend strong confidence in sustained damaging wind potential. However, occasional damaging gusts will be possible with outflow winds from the stronger/more organized clusters. Given the expected increase in storm coverage this afternoon, at least a localized risk for occasional damaging gusts is becoming apparent. Conditions will be monitored for a possible weather watch, though one currently seems unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42188622 43738607 44588522 44928448 44938330 44388317 44128298 43898258 43278249 42678244 41778352 41678510 41768602 41958621 42188622 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more