Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

MD 1602 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...South-central IA...northwest MO...northeast KS...far southeast NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495... Valid 080659Z - 080830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495 continues. SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind remains possible overnight. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS is ongoing early this morning from south-central IA into northwest MO and northeast KS. Low/midlevel flow and deep-layer shear are generally rather weak, and there has been a continued tendency for the gust front to outpace the deeper convective cores. However, even with this configuration, a relatively expansive cold pool is supporting occasional strong gusts, with a 51 kt gust recently observed at St. Joseph, MO. With CINH increasing downstream, a gradual weakening trend is expected to continue overnight, but some threat for strong to locally severe gusts may persist early this morning near and just behind the southeastward-moving outflow/gust front. ..Dean.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39619750 39769742 40199703 40109638 39829518 40549407 41759342 41769283 41389250 40149277 39109365 38879526 39459716 39619750 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. ... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. ... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. ... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ..Marsh.. 07/08/2025 Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW HSI TO 20 ESE LNK TO 20 SW SDA TO 25 N STJ TO 25 NNE LWD TO 40 NE DSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602 ..DEAN..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC067-095-097-109-131-151-080840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER OTOE SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 495 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 080205Z - 080900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 905 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa Central and Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 905 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward this evening into the early morning hours while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph. Occasional large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles west southwest of Grand Island NE to 45 miles southeast of Denison IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493...WW 494... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32030. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel low will approach the northern CA coast as it gradually phases with a robust midlevel trough moving across British Columbia. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will promote isolated dry/high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain of OR into far southeastern WA. Given dry/receptive fuels and limited rainfall with these storms, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible, along with strong convective outflow. Additionally, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of the midlevel trough moving across British Columbia will overspread the Cascades, resulting in dry/breezy downslope flow and elevated fire-weather conditions in the Columbia Basin. Farther south, a belt of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin between the large-scale ridge and midlevel low. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions over central NV into western UT, and given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel low will approach the northern CA coast as it gradually phases with a robust midlevel trough moving across British Columbia. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will promote isolated dry/high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain of OR into far southeastern WA. Given dry/receptive fuels and limited rainfall with these storms, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible, along with strong convective outflow. Additionally, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of the midlevel trough moving across British Columbia will overspread the Cascades, resulting in dry/breezy downslope flow and elevated fire-weather conditions in the Columbia Basin. Farther south, a belt of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin between the large-scale ridge and midlevel low. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions over central NV into western UT, and given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more