Severe Storms

MD 1603 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 081634Z - 081830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the Blue Ridge Mountains is expected in the next 1-2 hours. The threat for strong to severe winds will increase through the afternoon hours as storms spread east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Watch issuance is likely to address this concern. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows building cumulus within the central to southern Appalachians as temperatures continue to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s within a very moist air mass (dewpoints and PWAT values across the region are near or above the 90th percentile for mid-July). As temperatures continue to warm into the low to mid 90s over the next few hours, lingering inhibition will erode and support increasing probability for thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge Mountains and/or along a weak surface pressure trough in the lee of the terrain. Additional heating will also support SBCAPE values increasing to around 2000-3000 J/kg as well as steepening near-surface lapse rates. This thermodynamic environment will promote strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging/severe downburst winds. Modest flow aloft will generally limit deep-layer shear magnitudes and the potential for well-organized convection, but a few long-lived clusters or convective bands seem plausible, especially considering the weak capping that should promote scattered thunderstorm development. The wind threat should peak by late afternoon when thermodynamic profiles will be optimized and as convection reaches maturity along the I-95 corridor. ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38627916 40017720 41327521 41487474 41457429 41107383 40727373 40287383 37077842 37057864 37127886 37887936 38137945 38367942 38627916 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0496 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0496 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 8 17:21:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...Northwest... A mid-level low will gradually push into northern CA through tonight supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms along an axis of instability from the northern Klamath Mountains into the higher terrain of central/northeast OR. Precipitable water values in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range atop a dry boundary layer will limit rainfall with thunderstorms increasing potential of new lightning ignitions atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Elevated highlights were expanded into northeastern NV. Current surface observations show a wide swath 8-15% relative humidity values from central to northeastern NV. Enhanced mid-level flow atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary layer by this afternoon will support elevated fire weather conditions across much of central and northeastern NV, with more widespread single digit RH values by this afternoon, particularly across central NV. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel low will approach the northern CA coast as it gradually phases with a robust midlevel trough moving across British Columbia. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel low will promote isolated dry/high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain of OR into far southeastern WA. Given dry/receptive fuels and limited rainfall with these storms, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible, along with strong convective outflow. Additionally, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of the midlevel trough moving across British Columbia will overspread the Cascades, resulting in dry/breezy downslope flow and elevated fire-weather conditions in the Columbia Basin. Farther south, a belt of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin between the large-scale ridge and midlevel low. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will favor dry/breezy conditions over central NV into western UT, and given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more