Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening... A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow, clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe outflow winds and some hail. ...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection). Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending guidance/observational trends later this morning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US. This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time. That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential. Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Read more