Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 8 22:23:06 UTC 2025.

WW 0496 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CHO TO 5 SSE DCA TO 20 NNW ILG TO 35 NNW EWR. ..SPC..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-082340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-082340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-015-017-019-029-033-035-037-039-041-045-047-510- 082340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CHO TO 5 SSE DCA TO 20 NNW ILG TO 35 NNW EWR. ..SPC..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-082340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-082340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-015-017-019-029-033-035-037-039-041-045-047-510- 082340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER Read more

WW 496 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 081740Z - 090100Z
CWZ000-090100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Far southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Central and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward through the afternoon and evening. The storm environment will favor a mix of small clusters and line segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east southeast of Lynchburg VA to 30 miles north of Newark NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CHO TO 25 NNW DCA TO 25 ENE CXY TO 25 WSW AVP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607 ..MOORE..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-082140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-082140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-082140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CHO TO 25 NNW DCA TO 25 ENE CXY TO 25 WSW AVP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607 ..MOORE..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-082140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-082140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-082140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Read more

MD 1608 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THE UP OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081957Z - 082130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may pose a risk for damaging gusts and some hail this afternoon. A WW is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the upper Great Lakes, isolated thunderstorms have developed along a weak front/wind shift this afternoon. Aided by weak ascent from a broad shortwave trough, additional storm development/maturation is possible over the next few hours. Warming surface temperatures and 60s F dewpoints were supporting ~1000 J/kg of MCLAPE. Sufficient for strong updrafts, 35-40 kt of flow aloft will also favor some organization with supercell structures or clusters. Isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible with the strongest storms. The environment should continue to support occasional strong to severe storms over the next few hours as the wind shift continues toward the western shores of Lake Michigan. HRRR guidance suggests additional storms are possible farther south into northern WI with time. However, the limited overlap of buoyancy and shear, plus the limited duration before crossing offshore suggests the overall severe potential is low. A WW is unlikely, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 44778958 45858968 46388928 46678810 46608674 46438598 46088592 45208652 44568705 44168736 44058787 44008865 44778958 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1607 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496... Valid 081932Z - 082130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496 continues. SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is showing signs of intensification; the damaging wind potential is expected to increase over the coming hours as the line of storms approaches the I-95 corridor. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery shows steady cloud-top cooling of individual cells embedded within a developing convective band as convection begins moving off of the higher terrain and into a very buoyant air mass in place downstream across the Mid-Atlantic. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest that MLCAPE ahead of the developing line has increased to around 2500 J/kg as surface temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Additionally, regional VWPs are sampling 20-30 knot mid-level winds, which is supporting slightly stronger deep-layer bulk shear values than depicted by recent RAP/mesoanalysis estimates, which should contribute to better organization and longevity of the developing band. Consequently, the intensification trend is expected to continue as storms spread east over the next few hours. As this occurs, the potential for damaging/severe winds should also increase as cold pool consolidation/organization continues. Recent storm track estimates suggest that this activity should reach the I-95 corridor roughly during the 20-22 UTC time frame, which should be when diurnal heating and MLCAPE magnitudes will be maximized. ..Moore.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38437874 38957796 39227759 39627729 40067692 40537652 40807588 40967487 40947461 40857453 40727450 40457456 39967487 39517514 39147544 38777586 38487620 38317666 38167729 38107785 38067830 38087863 38137882 38257882 38437874 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1606 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and Texas into Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081819Z - 082045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Sporadic damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms or clusters that become established. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 1815 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed initial convection ongoing across parts of AR OK and TX was increasing in coverage and intensity early this afternoon. Focused along a slow-moving outflow boundary/remnant MCV and local terrain features, a gradual increase in storm coverage is expected over the region through the next several hours. Strong diurnal heating amid a seasonably moist air mass is supporting 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE across a broad area. This will support occasional stronger updrafts as strong diurnal heating and weak ascent east of the sub tropical ridge aid in new storm development. Vertical shear is weak (10-20 kt) suggesting little if any storm organization is likely. This will favor pulse storms with some potential for clustering within areas of higher storm coverage, especially along and south of the outflow/MCV and across southern AR. Given the mode and strong buoyancy, sporadic damaging gusts associated with strong downdrafts are possible. However, the lack of broader forcing for ascent and the limited vertical shear suggests a more widespread severe risk is unlikely. Scattered storms appear likely to continue into this evening with an occasional damaging gust. A slow weakening trend near and after sunset as buoyancy should begin to wane. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 34099846 35110012 36740032 37110000 36609815 36369490 35919414 35479332 35099124 34699111 34059153 33369291 33309533 33719768 34099846 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level jet max rounding the southern periphery of a short wave ejecting into the Great Basin will move over NV Wednesday. Efficient boundary layer mixing and subsequent surface winds of 15-25 mph with relative humidity in the 10-15% range will result in critical fire weather conditions across central NV/ far western UT Wednesday afternoon amid dry/receptive fuels. A broader elevated fire weather threat remains across much of the Great Basin as the trough pushes through the region. ...Northwest... Deep-layer westerly flow will continue to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Columbia Basin on Wednesday. A cold front and general onshore flow pattern will usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity through the Cascade gaps and Columbia River Gorge but overall stronger surface winds and a remaining dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat across the eastern Columbia Basin. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are still expected across southeastern OR and southwestern ID as a mid-level trough axis pushes into the Great Basin. Limited rainfall will increase ignition efficiency over dry fuels in addition to providing gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Great Basin... A mid-level jet max rounding the southern periphery of a short wave ejecting into the Great Basin will move over NV Wednesday. Efficient boundary layer mixing and subsequent surface winds of 15-25 mph with relative humidity in the 10-15% range will result in critical fire weather conditions across central NV/ far western UT Wednesday afternoon amid dry/receptive fuels. A broader elevated fire weather threat remains across much of the Great Basin as the trough pushes through the region. ...Northwest... Deep-layer westerly flow will continue to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Columbia Basin on Wednesday. A cold front and general onshore flow pattern will usher in cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity through the Cascade gaps and Columbia River Gorge but overall stronger surface winds and a remaining dry boundary layer will support an elevated fire weather threat across the eastern Columbia Basin. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are still expected across southeastern OR and southwestern ID as a mid-level trough axis pushes into the Great Basin. Limited rainfall will increase ignition efficiency over dry fuels in addition to providing gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel trough will track eastward across the Northwest during the day -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough/low moving eastward from British Columbia into Alberta. Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving across the Northwest will promote another day of isolated high-based thunderstorms -- with a focus over southeastern OR into southwestern ID. Deep inverted-V soundings and PW around 0.7 inches will favor dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning-induced ignitions and strong/erratic outflow winds. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow (peripheral to the midlevel trough) across the Cascades will lead to breezy/gusty westerly surface winds in the Columbia Basin. While increasing boundary-layer moisture will limit RH reductions compared to Day 1/Tuesday, stronger surface winds will offset this and still yield elevated fire-weather conditions. Over the Great Basin, moderate midlevel southwesterly winds accompanying the compact midlevel trough will overspread the Great Basin during the day. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this strengthening flow aloft will support another day of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more