Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper OH Valley into AL early Sunday, before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the Southeast throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will likely be in place over southern FL early in the period. This low-level moisture will likely be pushed offshore by a surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave. Even so, modest buoyancy could foster a few isolated thunderstorms along this boundary through the early afternoon. Predominantly zonal flow is anticipated across the CONUS in the wake of the eastern CONUS shortwave trough. Several low-amplitude shortwave troughs will be embedded within this enhanced westerly flow, the strongest of which is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Mid-level temperatures should be cold enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT. However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. Relatively higher thunderstorm chances are possible along the Pacific Northwest coast as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. Isolated convective cores may become sufficiently deep for lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper OH Valley into AL early Sunday, before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the Southeast throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will likely be in place over southern FL early in the period. This low-level moisture will likely be pushed offshore by a surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave. Even so, modest buoyancy could foster a few isolated thunderstorms along this boundary through the early afternoon. Predominantly zonal flow is anticipated across the CONUS in the wake of the eastern CONUS shortwave trough. Several low-amplitude shortwave troughs will be embedded within this enhanced westerly flow, the strongest of which is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Mid-level temperatures should be cold enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT. However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. Relatively higher thunderstorm chances are possible along the Pacific Northwest coast as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. Isolated convective cores may become sufficiently deep for lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper OH Valley into AL early Sunday, before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the Southeast throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will likely be in place over southern FL early in the period. This low-level moisture will likely be pushed offshore by a surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave. Even so, modest buoyancy could foster a few isolated thunderstorms along this boundary through the early afternoon. Predominantly zonal flow is anticipated across the CONUS in the wake of the eastern CONUS shortwave trough. Several low-amplitude shortwave troughs will be embedded within this enhanced westerly flow, the strongest of which is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Mid-level temperatures should be cold enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT. However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. Relatively higher thunderstorm chances are possible along the Pacific Northwest coast as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. Isolated convective cores may become sufficiently deep for lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper OH Valley into AL early Sunday, before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the Southeast throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will likely be in place over southern FL early in the period. This low-level moisture will likely be pushed offshore by a surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave. Even so, modest buoyancy could foster a few isolated thunderstorms along this boundary through the early afternoon. Predominantly zonal flow is anticipated across the CONUS in the wake of the eastern CONUS shortwave trough. Several low-amplitude shortwave troughs will be embedded within this enhanced westerly flow, the strongest of which is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Mid-level temperatures should be cold enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT. However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. Relatively higher thunderstorm chances are possible along the Pacific Northwest coast as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. Isolated convective cores may become sufficiently deep for lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the strong westerly flow aloft extending from the northeast Pacific Ocean across the Pacific Northwest. Modest buoyancy is possible along the coast, with isolated lightning flashes possible during the morning as the lead shortwave trough moves through. Cold mid-level temperatures will spread into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as the lead shortwave continues eastward, which will help foster modest buoyancy across eastern OR/WA and central ID during the afternoon and evening. Primary frontal band associated with the lead shortwave will likely be moving through the region at the same time, contributing to the potential for a few lightning flashes within any deeper embedded convective cores. Farther east, a shortwave trough initially extending from eastern SD into eastern CO is forecast to progress quickly southeastward throughout the day while deepening. By early Sunday morning, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Upper OH Valley into central MS. Showers are possible in the vicinity of this wave as it moves eastward/southeastward. However, low-level moisture will remain limited, precluding buoyancy and tempering any thunderstorm chances. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place across FL throughout the day, contributing to modest buoyancy. This buoyancy, coupled with low-level convergence and large-scale ascent attendant to a slow-moving shortwave trough, should foster isolated thunderstorm development across south FL throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the strong westerly flow aloft extending from the northeast Pacific Ocean across the Pacific Northwest. Modest buoyancy is possible along the coast, with isolated lightning flashes possible during the morning as the lead shortwave trough moves through. Cold mid-level temperatures will spread into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as the lead shortwave continues eastward, which will help foster modest buoyancy across eastern OR/WA and central ID during the afternoon and evening. Primary frontal band associated with the lead shortwave will likely be moving through the region at the same time, contributing to the potential for a few lightning flashes within any deeper embedded convective cores. Farther east, a shortwave trough initially extending from eastern SD into eastern CO is forecast to progress quickly southeastward throughout the day while deepening. By early Sunday morning, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Upper OH Valley into central MS. Showers are possible in the vicinity of this wave as it moves eastward/southeastward. However, low-level moisture will remain limited, precluding buoyancy and tempering any thunderstorm chances. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place across FL throughout the day, contributing to modest buoyancy. This buoyancy, coupled with low-level convergence and large-scale ascent attendant to a slow-moving shortwave trough, should foster isolated thunderstorm development across south FL throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the strong westerly flow aloft extending from the northeast Pacific Ocean across the Pacific Northwest. Modest buoyancy is possible along the coast, with isolated lightning flashes possible during the morning as the lead shortwave trough moves through. Cold mid-level temperatures will spread into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as the lead shortwave continues eastward, which will help foster modest buoyancy across eastern OR/WA and central ID during the afternoon and evening. Primary frontal band associated with the lead shortwave will likely be moving through the region at the same time, contributing to the potential for a few lightning flashes within any deeper embedded convective cores. Farther east, a shortwave trough initially extending from eastern SD into eastern CO is forecast to progress quickly southeastward throughout the day while deepening. By early Sunday morning, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Upper OH Valley into central MS. Showers are possible in the vicinity of this wave as it moves eastward/southeastward. However, low-level moisture will remain limited, precluding buoyancy and tempering any thunderstorm chances. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place across FL throughout the day, contributing to modest buoyancy. This buoyancy, coupled with low-level convergence and large-scale ascent attendant to a slow-moving shortwave trough, should foster isolated thunderstorm development across south FL throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the strong westerly flow aloft extending from the northeast Pacific Ocean across the Pacific Northwest. Modest buoyancy is possible along the coast, with isolated lightning flashes possible during the morning as the lead shortwave trough moves through. Cold mid-level temperatures will spread into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as the lead shortwave continues eastward, which will help foster modest buoyancy across eastern OR/WA and central ID during the afternoon and evening. Primary frontal band associated with the lead shortwave will likely be moving through the region at the same time, contributing to the potential for a few lightning flashes within any deeper embedded convective cores. Farther east, a shortwave trough initially extending from eastern SD into eastern CO is forecast to progress quickly southeastward throughout the day while deepening. By early Sunday morning, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Upper OH Valley into central MS. Showers are possible in the vicinity of this wave as it moves eastward/southeastward. However, low-level moisture will remain limited, precluding buoyancy and tempering any thunderstorm chances. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place across FL throughout the day, contributing to modest buoyancy. This buoyancy, coupled with low-level convergence and large-scale ascent attendant to a slow-moving shortwave trough, should foster isolated thunderstorm development across south FL throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A moist airmass will be confined to the Florida Peninsula and far south Texas. An isolated potential for thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula in the vicinity of Miami this evening. This convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A moist airmass will be confined to the Florida Peninsula and far south Texas. An isolated potential for thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula in the vicinity of Miami this evening. This convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A moist airmass will be confined to the Florida Peninsula and far south Texas. An isolated potential for thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula in the vicinity of Miami this evening. This convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A moist airmass will be confined to the Florida Peninsula and far south Texas. An isolated potential for thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula in the vicinity of Miami this evening. This convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 11/03/2023 Read more