Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

MD 0076 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OR INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WA
Mesoscale Discussion 0076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest OR into far southwest WA Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 162331Z - 170400Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in both intensity and coverage across much of the Willamette Valley, the Oregon Coast Range, and the far southern Chehalis River Valley during the next 1-2 hours and persist through around 04Z. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery depicts a compact midlevel cyclone tracking eastward toward the Pacific Northwest. Strong DCVA preceding the cyclone should overspread coastal OR over the next 1-2 hours, supporting an increase in precipitation intensity and coverage across the region. The 12Z SLE observed sounding and more recent Portland ACARS soundings showed lingering dry air in the 1-5-km layer, though persistent precipitation (and related wet-bulbing) along with increasing moisture ahead of the aforementioned cyclone are likely contributing to a deep saturated layer which will further support increasing precipitation rates. In fact, freezing rain is beginning to increase in coverage across coastal OR per the latest surface observations. Low to mid 20s surface wet bulb temperatures beneath a 3-4 deg C warm nose as low as 925 mb in the Willamette Valley into the Oregon Coast Range will support complete hydrometeor melting and re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation type (with pockets of sleet also possible). And, given the strengthening large-scale ascent amid a deeply saturated thermodynamic profile, freezing rain rates could exceed 0.1 inch/hour. These conditions will likely persist through around 04Z, before surface temperatures begin to warm and the dry conveyor belt accompanying the midlevel cyclone impinges on the area. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 44262371 44892370 44992384 45192392 45342363 45682358 46122370 46472335 46522282 45892250 45412222 45042253 44372277 44022285 43742309 43792355 44262371 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...South FL... Diminishing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the south Peninsula and Keys amid weak tropospheric lapse rates of 5-6 C/km and MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg per 00Z MFL/KEY RAOBs. As a trailing cold front makes steady southeast progression, the bulk of thunderstorm activity has become confined off both coasts. With decreasing low-level convergence along the front over land, this trend is anticipated to continue. As such, thunderstorm probabilities will likely become negligible overnight. ..Grams.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...South FL... Diminishing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the south Peninsula and Keys amid weak tropospheric lapse rates of 5-6 C/km and MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg per 00Z MFL/KEY RAOBs. As a trailing cold front makes steady southeast progression, the bulk of thunderstorm activity has become confined off both coasts. With decreasing low-level convergence along the front over land, this trend is anticipated to continue. As such, thunderstorm probabilities will likely become negligible overnight. ..Grams.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...South FL... Diminishing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the south Peninsula and Keys amid weak tropospheric lapse rates of 5-6 C/km and MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg per 00Z MFL/KEY RAOBs. As a trailing cold front makes steady southeast progression, the bulk of thunderstorm activity has become confined off both coasts. With decreasing low-level convergence along the front over land, this trend is anticipated to continue. As such, thunderstorm probabilities will likely become negligible overnight. ..Grams.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...South FL... Diminishing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the south Peninsula and Keys amid weak tropospheric lapse rates of 5-6 C/km and MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg per 00Z MFL/KEY RAOBs. As a trailing cold front makes steady southeast progression, the bulk of thunderstorm activity has become confined off both coasts. With decreasing low-level convergence along the front over land, this trend is anticipated to continue. As such, thunderstorm probabilities will likely become negligible overnight. ..Grams.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...South FL... Diminishing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the south Peninsula and Keys amid weak tropospheric lapse rates of 5-6 C/km and MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg per 00Z MFL/KEY RAOBs. As a trailing cold front makes steady southeast progression, the bulk of thunderstorm activity has become confined off both coasts. With decreasing low-level convergence along the front over land, this trend is anticipated to continue. As such, thunderstorm probabilities will likely become negligible overnight. ..Grams.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...South FL... Diminishing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the south Peninsula and Keys amid weak tropospheric lapse rates of 5-6 C/km and MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg per 00Z MFL/KEY RAOBs. As a trailing cold front makes steady southeast progression, the bulk of thunderstorm activity has become confined off both coasts. With decreasing low-level convergence along the front over land, this trend is anticipated to continue. As such, thunderstorm probabilities will likely become negligible overnight. ..Grams.. 01/17/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 16 23:33:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0076 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OR INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WA
Mesoscale Discussion 0076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest OR into far southwest WA Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 162331Z - 170400Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in both intensity and coverage across much of the Willamette Valley, the Oregon Coast Range, and the far southern Chehalis River Valley during the next 1-2 hours and persist through around 04Z. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery depicts a compact midlevel cyclone tracking eastward toward the Pacific Northwest. Strong DCVA preceding the cyclone should overspread coastal OR over the next 1-2 hours, supporting an increase in precipitation intensity and coverage across the region. The 12Z SLE observed sounding and more recent Portland ACARS soundings showed lingering dry air in the 1-5-km layer, though persistent precipitation (and related wet-bulbing) along with increasing moisture ahead of the aforementioned cyclone are likely contributing to a deep saturated layer which will further support increasing precipitation rates. In fact, freezing rain is beginning to increase in coverage across coastal OR per the latest surface observations. Low to mid 20s surface wet bulb temperatures beneath a 3-4 deg C warm nose as low as 925 mb in the Willamette Valley into the Oregon Coast Range will support complete hydrometeor melting and re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation type (with pockets of sleet also possible). And, given the strengthening large-scale ascent amid a deeply saturated thermodynamic profile, freezing rain rates could exceed 0.1 inch/hour. These conditions will likely persist through around 04Z, before surface temperatures begin to warm and the dry conveyor belt accompanying the midlevel cyclone impinges on the area. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 44262371 44892370 44992384 45192392 45342363 45682358 46122370 46472335 46522282 45892250 45412222 45042253 44372277 44022285 43742309 43792355 44262371 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 16 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0075 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Much of interior Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 161849Z - 162245Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour are increasingly likely by 4-7 PM EST, and probably will linger further into the evening, before spreading to the northeast of the region. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant short wave impulse turning northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, cyclogenesis is underway along a surface frontal zone near the northern Mid Atlantic through southern New England coast vicinity. Associated large-scale ascent is contributing to an expanding and intensifying precipitation shield beneath cooling cloud tops inland of coastal areas. It appears that this will continue while overspreading the remainder of northern New England through the balance of the afternoon, in response to further strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and forcing for upward vertical motion. A general consensus of latest model output indicates a more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone will commence by 21-00Z, largely offshore, across and northeast of the Cape Cod vicinity by 21-00Z. Across the coastal plain into higher terrain of Maine, deep-layer lift, becoming maximized within the mid-level layer favorably cold for large dendritic ice crystal growth, is forecast to become increasingly conducive to heavy snow rates around or above 1 inch per hour by 21-22Z, if not earlier. This will be aided by cold thermodynamic profiles entirely below freezing, and supportive of moderately large snow to liquid water equivalent ratios, as low-level moisture advection off the Atlantic contributes to increasing precipitable water content (.4 to .6 inches). Strengthening frontogentic forcing may contribute to bands of heavier snow rates approaching 2 inches per hour, with the heavy snow lingering through mid to late evening before diminishing and/or spreading with the large-scale ascent northeast of the region. ..Kerr.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 45666715 44236966 43657102 44227114 45277053 46276909 46776794 45666715 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected across the CONUS for the extended forecast period. A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic late this week as an upper-ridge builds over the Great Plains this weekend. Thereafter, another upper trough is poised to overspread the central U.S. by early next week. Surface high pressure and associated cold air will meander over the central and eastern U.S. through at least this weekend. With the passing of the upper ridge, relatively warmer, but moister low-level air will return northward from the Gulf of Mexico and overspread the south-central CONUS. The net result will be cool and/or moist surface conditions that will limit wildfire-spread potential over most of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more