Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

MD 0077 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE
Mesoscale Discussion 0077 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Downstream of Lakes Ontario and Erie Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170254Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...An intense lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario will persist through the overnight hours, with rates up to 2 in/hr. An additional lake effect band may intensify off of Lake Erie through the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...On the backside of a departing midlevel shortwave trough lifting northeastward across the Northeast, low/midlevel flow has become favorably aligned with the long axis of Lake Ontario, where an intense lake effect snow band has developed. Latest radar data and web cams suggest rates up to 2 in/hr over Oswego County with this organized band. Over the next few hours, low-level flow should remain unidirectional and maintain a favorable direction for the persistence of this band, with the heaviest snowfall rates expected over Oswego County. Rates up to 2 in/hr will be aided by persistent surface confluence along the lake and a modestly deep convective boundary layer extending up to about 2 km. In the 04-06Z time frame, low-level flow will back to a west-southwesterly direction, likely shifting the lake effect band northward into Jefferson County with time. However, increasing subsidence on the backside of the aforementioned midlevel trough could lead to decreased convective boundary layer depths and a slight reduction in rates. Off of Lake Erie, latest radar data shows some intensification of a lake effect snow band extending into Erie County. While low-level flow is modestly aligned with the long axis of the lake, the backing low-level winds with time should yield a more persistent band into the early morning hours. Thermodynamic conditions appear slightly less conducive compared to Lake Ontario, though rates could approach 2 in/hr if the snow band becomes persistent and organized. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43287614 43427682 43567703 43747686 43877642 43877607 43847576 43747538 43527526 43207551 43287614 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more