Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH Valley on D4/Monday. This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley. Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH Valley on D4/Monday. This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley. Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH Valley on D4/Monday. This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley. Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH Valley on D4/Monday. This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley. Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Monday, with an attendant surface low taking a similar track just to the northeast of its parent shortwave. A cold front associated with this low is expected to move across much of the Mid MS and OH Valley on D4/Monday. This cold front will likely then stall late D4/Monday evening or early D5/Tuesday morning amid increasing southerly return flow ahead of another shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave late D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday morning over KS/OK. Resulting surface low should then progress northeastward on D6/Wednesday, likely moving across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley. Guidance suggests a fairly broad warm sector will precede this front, with at least some potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the it on D6/Wednesday and D7/Thursday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper OH Valley into AL early Sunday, before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the Southeast throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will likely be in place over southern FL early in the period. This low-level moisture will likely be pushed offshore by a surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave. Even so, modest buoyancy could foster a few isolated thunderstorms along this boundary through the early afternoon. Predominantly zonal flow is anticipated across the CONUS in the wake of the eastern CONUS shortwave trough. Several low-amplitude shortwave troughs will be embedded within this enhanced westerly flow, the strongest of which is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Mid-level temperatures should be cold enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT. However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. Relatively higher thunderstorm chances are possible along the Pacific Northwest coast as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. Isolated convective cores may become sufficiently deep for lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper OH Valley into AL early Sunday, before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the Southeast throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will likely be in place over southern FL early in the period. This low-level moisture will likely be pushed offshore by a surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave. Even so, modest buoyancy could foster a few isolated thunderstorms along this boundary through the early afternoon. Predominantly zonal flow is anticipated across the CONUS in the wake of the eastern CONUS shortwave trough. Several low-amplitude shortwave troughs will be embedded within this enhanced westerly flow, the strongest of which is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Mid-level temperatures should be cold enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT. However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. Relatively higher thunderstorm chances are possible along the Pacific Northwest coast as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. Isolated convective cores may become sufficiently deep for lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper OH Valley into AL early Sunday, before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the Southeast throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will likely be in place over southern FL early in the period. This low-level moisture will likely be pushed offshore by a surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave. Even so, modest buoyancy could foster a few isolated thunderstorms along this boundary through the early afternoon. Predominantly zonal flow is anticipated across the CONUS in the wake of the eastern CONUS shortwave trough. Several low-amplitude shortwave troughs will be embedded within this enhanced westerly flow, the strongest of which is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Mid-level temperatures should be cold enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT. However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. Relatively higher thunderstorm chances are possible along the Pacific Northwest coast as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. Isolated convective cores may become sufficiently deep for lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through early Monday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper OH Valley into AL early Sunday, before then continuing eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the Southeast throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will likely be in place over southern FL early in the period. This low-level moisture will likely be pushed offshore by a surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave. Even so, modest buoyancy could foster a few isolated thunderstorms along this boundary through the early afternoon. Predominantly zonal flow is anticipated across the CONUS in the wake of the eastern CONUS shortwave trough. Several low-amplitude shortwave troughs will be embedded within this enhanced westerly flow, the strongest of which is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Mid-level temperatures should be cold enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT. However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. Relatively higher thunderstorm chances are possible along the Pacific Northwest coast as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. Isolated convective cores may become sufficiently deep for lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 11/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more