Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period. A cyclone that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to an open shortwave trough over OR. This feature should deamplify gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow. Though a flash or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/ moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as a strong shortwave exits the East Coast. A related/preceding surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate, weaken, and remain south of FL through the period. Lightning potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10% areal outline. Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or stable for thunder over the CONUS. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the Plains by Day 8/Wed. Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the Plains by Day 8/Wed. Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the Plains by Day 8/Wed. Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the Plains by Day 8/Wed. Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the Plains by Day 8/Wed. Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the Plains by Day 8/Wed. Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more