Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated. brief thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of southern Oregon and northwestern California today. ...Synopsis... On the large scale, mean mid/upper-level troughing will remain over east-central North America, with associated cyclonic flow common between the Mississippi Valley and East Coast. Associated continental/polar air in low levels will continue to keep conditions unsuitable for thunderstorms over most of the CONUS landmass. However, upstream ridging aloft will deamplify, with flow becoming more zonal, amid numerous transitory shortwaves of varying amplitudes. The strongest of those is evident in moisture-channel imagery offshore from the Pacific Northwest, extending south- southwestward from a vorticity max located west of Vancouver Island and south of Haida Gwaii. The shortwave trough will move inland by 00Z, preceded by belts of large-scale ascent in the form of low- level warm advection and low/middle-tropospheric DCVA. With little or no lightning observed offshore so far, a crucial component of convective-scale lift will need to take the form of nearshore/onshore convergence above the near-surface stable layer, and/or stronger baroclinically driven ascent to LFC than evident yet. Sufficiency of those processes is uncertain, given mesoscale convective trends and the weakness of forecast buoyancy overall (MUCAPE generally under 300 J/kg). Still, with forecast soundings still commonly showing low-density elevated MUCAPE extending vertically into icing layers suitable for lightning generation, a small and very low-end general-thunder area is retained for now, with only minor spatial adjustments. ..Edwards.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated. brief thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of southern Oregon and northwestern California today. ...Synopsis... On the large scale, mean mid/upper-level troughing will remain over east-central North America, with associated cyclonic flow common between the Mississippi Valley and East Coast. Associated continental/polar air in low levels will continue to keep conditions unsuitable for thunderstorms over most of the CONUS landmass. However, upstream ridging aloft will deamplify, with flow becoming more zonal, amid numerous transitory shortwaves of varying amplitudes. The strongest of those is evident in moisture-channel imagery offshore from the Pacific Northwest, extending south- southwestward from a vorticity max located west of Vancouver Island and south of Haida Gwaii. The shortwave trough will move inland by 00Z, preceded by belts of large-scale ascent in the form of low- level warm advection and low/middle-tropospheric DCVA. With little or no lightning observed offshore so far, a crucial component of convective-scale lift will need to take the form of nearshore/onshore convergence above the near-surface stable layer, and/or stronger baroclinically driven ascent to LFC than evident yet. Sufficiency of those processes is uncertain, given mesoscale convective trends and the weakness of forecast buoyancy overall (MUCAPE generally under 300 J/kg). Still, with forecast soundings still commonly showing low-density elevated MUCAPE extending vertically into icing layers suitable for lightning generation, a small and very low-end general-thunder area is retained for now, with only minor spatial adjustments. ..Edwards.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated. brief thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of southern Oregon and northwestern California today. ...Synopsis... On the large scale, mean mid/upper-level troughing will remain over east-central North America, with associated cyclonic flow common between the Mississippi Valley and East Coast. Associated continental/polar air in low levels will continue to keep conditions unsuitable for thunderstorms over most of the CONUS landmass. However, upstream ridging aloft will deamplify, with flow becoming more zonal, amid numerous transitory shortwaves of varying amplitudes. The strongest of those is evident in moisture-channel imagery offshore from the Pacific Northwest, extending south- southwestward from a vorticity max located west of Vancouver Island and south of Haida Gwaii. The shortwave trough will move inland by 00Z, preceded by belts of large-scale ascent in the form of low- level warm advection and low/middle-tropospheric DCVA. With little or no lightning observed offshore so far, a crucial component of convective-scale lift will need to take the form of nearshore/onshore convergence above the near-surface stable layer, and/or stronger baroclinically driven ascent to LFC than evident yet. Sufficiency of those processes is uncertain, given mesoscale convective trends and the weakness of forecast buoyancy overall (MUCAPE generally under 300 J/kg). Still, with forecast soundings still commonly showing low-density elevated MUCAPE extending vertically into icing layers suitable for lightning generation, a small and very low-end general-thunder area is retained for now, with only minor spatial adjustments. ..Edwards.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated. brief thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of southern Oregon and northwestern California today. ...Synopsis... On the large scale, mean mid/upper-level troughing will remain over east-central North America, with associated cyclonic flow common between the Mississippi Valley and East Coast. Associated continental/polar air in low levels will continue to keep conditions unsuitable for thunderstorms over most of the CONUS landmass. However, upstream ridging aloft will deamplify, with flow becoming more zonal, amid numerous transitory shortwaves of varying amplitudes. The strongest of those is evident in moisture-channel imagery offshore from the Pacific Northwest, extending south- southwestward from a vorticity max located west of Vancouver Island and south of Haida Gwaii. The shortwave trough will move inland by 00Z, preceded by belts of large-scale ascent in the form of low- level warm advection and low/middle-tropospheric DCVA. With little or no lightning observed offshore so far, a crucial component of convective-scale lift will need to take the form of nearshore/onshore convergence above the near-surface stable layer, and/or stronger baroclinically driven ascent to LFC than evident yet. Sufficiency of those processes is uncertain, given mesoscale convective trends and the weakness of forecast buoyancy overall (MUCAPE generally under 300 J/kg). Still, with forecast soundings still commonly showing low-density elevated MUCAPE extending vertically into icing layers suitable for lightning generation, a small and very low-end general-thunder area is retained for now, with only minor spatial adjustments. ..Edwards.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated. brief thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of southern Oregon and northwestern California today. ...Synopsis... On the large scale, mean mid/upper-level troughing will remain over east-central North America, with associated cyclonic flow common between the Mississippi Valley and East Coast. Associated continental/polar air in low levels will continue to keep conditions unsuitable for thunderstorms over most of the CONUS landmass. However, upstream ridging aloft will deamplify, with flow becoming more zonal, amid numerous transitory shortwaves of varying amplitudes. The strongest of those is evident in moisture-channel imagery offshore from the Pacific Northwest, extending south- southwestward from a vorticity max located west of Vancouver Island and south of Haida Gwaii. The shortwave trough will move inland by 00Z, preceded by belts of large-scale ascent in the form of low- level warm advection and low/middle-tropospheric DCVA. With little or no lightning observed offshore so far, a crucial component of convective-scale lift will need to take the form of nearshore/onshore convergence above the near-surface stable layer, and/or stronger baroclinically driven ascent to LFC than evident yet. Sufficiency of those processes is uncertain, given mesoscale convective trends and the weakness of forecast buoyancy overall (MUCAPE generally under 300 J/kg). Still, with forecast soundings still commonly showing low-density elevated MUCAPE extending vertically into icing layers suitable for lightning generation, a small and very low-end general-thunder area is retained for now, with only minor spatial adjustments. ..Edwards.. 11/02/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that a belt of strong mid/upper flow propagating out of the southern mid-latitude Pacific will undergo at least modest amplification while crossing the U.S. during the early through middle portion of next week. It now appears probable that one emerging short wave trough will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by Monday, which may rapidly migrate across parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and New England into the Canadian Maritimes by early Wednesday morning. Guidance appears increasingly suggestive that a narrow plume of weak to modest Gulf moisture return, on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may be drawn into the developing warm sector on Monday, before becoming cut-off. With sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, deep-layer shear and synoptic forcing for ascent could become conducive to organized severe convection. At the present time, however, it seems most probable that peak CAPE will remain on the order of 500 J/kg or less, resulting in only marginal severe weather probabilities. But, this could still include low-topped supercells and/or a narrow organizing squall line. Into the middle of next week, latest guidance appears to be trending toward weaker surface wave development along the trailing front, associated with an upstream short wave trough forecast to progress east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that a belt of strong mid/upper flow propagating out of the southern mid-latitude Pacific will undergo at least modest amplification while crossing the U.S. during the early through middle portion of next week. It now appears probable that one emerging short wave trough will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by Monday, which may rapidly migrate across parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and New England into the Canadian Maritimes by early Wednesday morning. Guidance appears increasingly suggestive that a narrow plume of weak to modest Gulf moisture return, on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may be drawn into the developing warm sector on Monday, before becoming cut-off. With sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, deep-layer shear and synoptic forcing for ascent could become conducive to organized severe convection. At the present time, however, it seems most probable that peak CAPE will remain on the order of 500 J/kg or less, resulting in only marginal severe weather probabilities. But, this could still include low-topped supercells and/or a narrow organizing squall line. Into the middle of next week, latest guidance appears to be trending toward weaker surface wave development along the trailing front, associated with an upstream short wave trough forecast to progress east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that a belt of strong mid/upper flow propagating out of the southern mid-latitude Pacific will undergo at least modest amplification while crossing the U.S. during the early through middle portion of next week. It now appears probable that one emerging short wave trough will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by Monday, which may rapidly migrate across parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and New England into the Canadian Maritimes by early Wednesday morning. Guidance appears increasingly suggestive that a narrow plume of weak to modest Gulf moisture return, on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may be drawn into the developing warm sector on Monday, before becoming cut-off. With sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, deep-layer shear and synoptic forcing for ascent could become conducive to organized severe convection. At the present time, however, it seems most probable that peak CAPE will remain on the order of 500 J/kg or less, resulting in only marginal severe weather probabilities. But, this could still include low-topped supercells and/or a narrow organizing squall line. Into the middle of next week, latest guidance appears to be trending toward weaker surface wave development along the trailing front, associated with an upstream short wave trough forecast to progress east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that a belt of strong mid/upper flow propagating out of the southern mid-latitude Pacific will undergo at least modest amplification while crossing the U.S. during the early through middle portion of next week. It now appears probable that one emerging short wave trough will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by Monday, which may rapidly migrate across parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and New England into the Canadian Maritimes by early Wednesday morning. Guidance appears increasingly suggestive that a narrow plume of weak to modest Gulf moisture return, on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may be drawn into the developing warm sector on Monday, before becoming cut-off. With sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, deep-layer shear and synoptic forcing for ascent could become conducive to organized severe convection. At the present time, however, it seems most probable that peak CAPE will remain on the order of 500 J/kg or less, resulting in only marginal severe weather probabilities. But, this could still include low-topped supercells and/or a narrow organizing squall line. Into the middle of next week, latest guidance appears to be trending toward weaker surface wave development along the trailing front, associated with an upstream short wave trough forecast to progress east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that a belt of strong mid/upper flow propagating out of the southern mid-latitude Pacific will undergo at least modest amplification while crossing the U.S. during the early through middle portion of next week. It now appears probable that one emerging short wave trough will contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by Monday, which may rapidly migrate across parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and New England into the Canadian Maritimes by early Wednesday morning. Guidance appears increasingly suggestive that a narrow plume of weak to modest Gulf moisture return, on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may be drawn into the developing warm sector on Monday, before becoming cut-off. With sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, deep-layer shear and synoptic forcing for ascent could become conducive to organized severe convection. At the present time, however, it seems most probable that peak CAPE will remain on the order of 500 J/kg or less, resulting in only marginal severe weather probabilities. But, this could still include low-topped supercells and/or a narrow organizing squall line. Into the middle of next week, latest guidance appears to be trending toward weaker surface wave development along the trailing front, associated with an upstream short wave trough forecast to progress east of the Rockies. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ...Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ...Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ...Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ...Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more