Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery midday Friday shows a potent mid- to upper-level low/trough over the eastern Pacific west of the CA coast. This feature is forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into the Pacific Northwest during daylight hours on Saturday while a weaker perturbation moves through the larger-scale trough's base and into southern CA late Saturday night. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will shift into the Great Plains concurrent with a trough's influence abating along the East Coast. In the low levels, cool and/or stable conditions over much of the Lower 48 states will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery midday Friday shows a potent mid- to upper-level low/trough over the eastern Pacific west of the CA coast. This feature is forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into the Pacific Northwest during daylight hours on Saturday while a weaker perturbation moves through the larger-scale trough's base and into southern CA late Saturday night. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will shift into the Great Plains concurrent with a trough's influence abating along the East Coast. In the low levels, cool and/or stable conditions over much of the Lower 48 states will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery midday Friday shows a potent mid- to upper-level low/trough over the eastern Pacific west of the CA coast. This feature is forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into the Pacific Northwest during daylight hours on Saturday while a weaker perturbation moves through the larger-scale trough's base and into southern CA late Saturday night. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will shift into the Great Plains concurrent with a trough's influence abating along the East Coast. In the low levels, cool and/or stable conditions over much of the Lower 48 states will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery midday Friday shows a potent mid- to upper-level low/trough over the eastern Pacific west of the CA coast. This feature is forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into the Pacific Northwest during daylight hours on Saturday while a weaker perturbation moves through the larger-scale trough's base and into southern CA late Saturday night. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will shift into the Great Plains concurrent with a trough's influence abating along the East Coast. In the low levels, cool and/or stable conditions over much of the Lower 48 states will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more