Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the strong westerly flow aloft extending from the northeast Pacific Ocean across the Pacific Northwest. Modest buoyancy is possible along the coast, with isolated lightning flashes possible during the morning as the lead shortwave trough moves through. Cold mid-level temperatures will spread into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as the lead shortwave continues eastward, which will help foster modest buoyancy across eastern OR/WA and central ID during the afternoon and evening. Primary frontal band associated with the lead shortwave will likely be moving through the region at the same time, contributing to the potential for a few lightning flashes within any deeper embedded convective cores. Farther east, a shortwave trough initially extending from eastern SD into eastern CO is forecast to progress quickly southeastward throughout the day while deepening. By early Sunday morning, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Upper OH Valley into central MS. Showers are possible in the vicinity of this wave as it moves eastward/southeastward. However, low-level moisture will remain limited, precluding buoyancy and tempering any thunderstorm chances. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place across FL throughout the day, contributing to modest buoyancy. This buoyancy, coupled with low-level convergence and large-scale ascent attendant to a slow-moving shortwave trough, should foster isolated thunderstorm development across south FL throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the strong westerly flow aloft extending from the northeast Pacific Ocean across the Pacific Northwest. Modest buoyancy is possible along the coast, with isolated lightning flashes possible during the morning as the lead shortwave trough moves through. Cold mid-level temperatures will spread into the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as the lead shortwave continues eastward, which will help foster modest buoyancy across eastern OR/WA and central ID during the afternoon and evening. Primary frontal band associated with the lead shortwave will likely be moving through the region at the same time, contributing to the potential for a few lightning flashes within any deeper embedded convective cores. Farther east, a shortwave trough initially extending from eastern SD into eastern CO is forecast to progress quickly southeastward throughout the day while deepening. By early Sunday morning, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Upper OH Valley into central MS. Showers are possible in the vicinity of this wave as it moves eastward/southeastward. However, low-level moisture will remain limited, precluding buoyancy and tempering any thunderstorm chances. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place across FL throughout the day, contributing to modest buoyancy. This buoyancy, coupled with low-level convergence and large-scale ascent attendant to a slow-moving shortwave trough, should foster isolated thunderstorm development across south FL throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A moist airmass will be confined to the Florida Peninsula and far south Texas. An isolated potential for thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula in the vicinity of Miami this evening. This convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A moist airmass will be confined to the Florida Peninsula and far south Texas. An isolated potential for thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula in the vicinity of Miami this evening. This convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A moist airmass will be confined to the Florida Peninsula and far south Texas. An isolated potential for thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula in the vicinity of Miami this evening. This convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A moist airmass will be confined to the Florida Peninsula and far south Texas. An isolated potential for thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula in the vicinity of Miami this evening. This convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the U.S. tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Eastern Seaboard. Northeasterly flow at the surface across the immediate Gulf Coast and over the Gulf of Mexico will prevent low-level moisture from returning northward into the southern states. This will keep a dry airmass in place over much of the continental United States through tonight. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the U.S. this evening into tonight. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the U.S. tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Eastern Seaboard. Northeasterly flow at the surface across the immediate Gulf Coast and over the Gulf of Mexico will prevent low-level moisture from returning northward into the southern states. This will keep a dry airmass in place over much of the continental United States through tonight. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the U.S. this evening into tonight. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 2 23:57:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 2 23:57:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more