Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ...Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ...Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ...Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While one initially significant short wave trough and associated occluding surface cyclone gradually weaken near the British Columbia coast, models indicate that a strong mid/upper jet emerging from the southern mid-latitude Pacific will begin to nose inland across the Pacific Northwest into northern U.S. Rockies during this period. Short wave developments within a generally low-amplitude downstream regime, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, remain more unclear, to the south of a broad, lingering mid-level low near and east of Hudson Bay. While some moistening appears possible on weak southerly low-level flow across the Texas coast into southern portions of the Great Plains, weak surface ridging is forecast to linger across much of the Southeast into northwest Gulf coast vicinity. And the Gulf boundary layer may continue to only slowly modify, in the wake of the recent significant cold intrusion. ...Pacific Northwest into Rockies... Beneath mid-level cooling within the exit region of the mid/upper jet, models suggest that moistening off the Pacific may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles might become marginally supportive of convection capable of producing lightning. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain rather sparse in coverage, and it is not yet clear where/if probabilities exceed the minimum 10 percent for a categorical thunder outlook. West of the Cascades, it does appear that colder mid-level air, associated with a short wave trough approaching the Washington coast late Saturday night, may support convection with somewhat better potential for producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more