Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this evening. ...South FL... Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800 J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile observed at MFL. ..Darrow.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this evening. ...South FL... Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800 J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile observed at MFL. ..Darrow.. 01/19/2024 Read more

MD 0079 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska and Northeastern Kansas Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 182244Z - 190045Z SUMMARY...Dangerous snow squall moving southeast with low visibility and moderate to heavy snowfall. DISCUSSION...A snow squall is in progress with moderate to heavy snowfall and visibility less than 1/4 mi reported in Hastings,NE and Grand Island, NE. This squall continues to move south east and may have reached peak intensity, with some uncertainty in what the duration will be given it's location behind the front and low agreement in hi-res guidance in forecast and duration. Rapid drop in visibility is expected with this squall due to moderate to heavy snowfall in combination with strong winds and blowing snow from snow pack on the ground. ..Thornton.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39899896 40479824 40709768 40909726 40909684 40759678 40519690 40359696 40229705 40019731 39819755 39689793 39639806 39579848 39549872 39759888 39829889 39899896 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 18 22:47:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0079 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska and Northeastern Kansas Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 182244Z - 190045Z SUMMARY...Dangerous snow squall moving southeast with low visibility and moderate to heavy snowfall. DISCUSSION...A snow squall is in progress with moderate to heavy snowfall and visibility less than 1/4 mi reported in Hastings,NE and Grand Island, NE. This squall continues to move south east and may have reached peak intensity, with some uncertainty in what the duration will be given it's location behind the front and low agreement in hi-res guidance in forecast and duration. Rapid drop in visibility is expected with this squall due to moderate to heavy snowfall in combination with strong winds and blowing snow from snow pack on the ground. ..Thornton.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39899896 40479824 40709768 40909726 40909684 40759678 40519690 40359696 40229705 40019731 39819755 39689793 39639806 39579848 39549872 39759888 39829889 39899896 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 18 22:29:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more