Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... The surface pressure gradient will relax on Saturday with mostly light winds expected across most of the CONUS. The exception will be across the Pacific Northwest where a strong surface low off the coast will bring some breezy conditions. However, significant rainfall will also be associated with these stronger winds and therefore, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Dry relative humidity (less than 20 percent) is expected across eastern Virginia and the Carolinas. This will dry fuels in the region, but with light winds, the large fire threat should stay somewhat muted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Ohio Valley today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Upper Midwest and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Relative humidity of 25 to 30 percent and 15 to 20 mph winds are expected. However, fuels are moist in this region. Dry conditions and drying fuels are expected across the Southwest, but winds will remain light and fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will persist through tonight. Two confined areas of very isolated thunderstorm activity appear possible. Along the immediate south FL coast and Upper Keys, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may occur tomorrow morning after 08Z. Gradual low-level moistening will occur from the Bahamas and Greater Antilles downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east over the Gulf of Mexico. Meager buoyancy should develop towards the end of the period with predominately showers forming given marginal lapse rates/upper-level temperatures for charge separation. An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies should amplify somewhat as it ejects to the central Great Plains tonight. A moderate combination of large-scale forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates may aid in scant elevated buoyancy with MUCAPE around 100 J/kg. Very isolated/sporadic thunderstorms may form this evening to early tonight in southeast WY and western NE. ..Grams.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS and Mexico. A weak mid-level trough will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning. In the low levels, a surface ridge will extend from the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible beginning this evening near the immediate South FL coast and Keys. This activity will probably continue into the overnight as additional low-level moistening occurs and weak buoyancy develops inland over South FL. Tranquil conditions are forecast across most of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 11/03/2023 Read more