Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge in the western CONUS will flatten and become more zonal on Saturday. The relative lack of curved flow across the CONUS will lead to a relatively benign surface pattern and light winds across most of the CONUS. Dry conditions are expected across the Southwest with relative humidity in the single digits. This will dry fuels across the region, but with light winds expected, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge in the western CONUS will flatten and become more zonal on Saturday. The relative lack of curved flow across the CONUS will lead to a relatively benign surface pattern and light winds across most of the CONUS. Dry conditions are expected across the Southwest with relative humidity in the single digits. This will dry fuels across the region, but with light winds expected, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge in the western CONUS will flatten and become more zonal on Saturday. The relative lack of curved flow across the CONUS will lead to a relatively benign surface pattern and light winds across most of the CONUS. Dry conditions are expected across the Southwest with relative humidity in the single digits. This will dry fuels across the region, but with light winds expected, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge in the western CONUS will flatten and become more zonal on Saturday. The relative lack of curved flow across the CONUS will lead to a relatively benign surface pattern and light winds across most of the CONUS. Dry conditions are expected across the Southwest with relative humidity in the single digits. This will dry fuels across the region, but with light winds expected, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge in the western CONUS will flatten and become more zonal on Saturday. The relative lack of curved flow across the CONUS will lead to a relatively benign surface pattern and light winds across most of the CONUS. Dry conditions are expected across the Southwest with relative humidity in the single digits. This will dry fuels across the region, but with light winds expected, fire weather concerns will remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning flashes have been focused this morning near the southwest OR coast where low-level convergence was maximized within the warm conveyor downstream of a large upper trough shifting northeast towards the BC coast. Convergence and large-scale ascent will gradually wane through the afternoon, yielding a diminishing thunder threat by evening along the coast. Farther inland, meager elevated buoyancy developing east of the Cascades within the warm conveyor may support very isolated thunderstorms across eastern OR and parts of western ID, mainly this evening into tonight. A limited spatiotemporal window will also exist for a few elevated thunderstorms amid scant buoyancy (MUCAPE near 100 J/kg) in the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity this evening. Modest 850-700 mb warm theta-e advection beneath thermodynamic profiles barely adequate for charge separation will support this potential for a few hours. Relatively abrupt warming at and above 500 mb will occur with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Great Plains, curtailing the longevity of the low probability thunder threat. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over the Pacific Northwest and slowly lose amplitude through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this morning with slightly elevated convection in the main baroclinic band, while it is not clear that post-frontal convection later today into tonight will be deep enough to produce lightning. Farther inland across parts of eastern OR/WA into ID, cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening lapse rates will result in at least weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the potential for isolated lightning flashes later this afternoon into early tonight. Otherwise, a modifying air mass along a stalled front across southeast FL and a diffuse southern stream shortwave trough could support isolated thunderstorms later today. However, forcing for ascent and buoyancy will remain relatively weak, which suggests that storm coverage/intensity will be limited. ..Thompson.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over the Pacific Northwest and slowly lose amplitude through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this morning with slightly elevated convection in the main baroclinic band, while it is not clear that post-frontal convection later today into tonight will be deep enough to produce lightning. Farther inland across parts of eastern OR/WA into ID, cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening lapse rates will result in at least weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the potential for isolated lightning flashes later this afternoon into early tonight. Otherwise, a modifying air mass along a stalled front across southeast FL and a diffuse southern stream shortwave trough could support isolated thunderstorms later today. However, forcing for ascent and buoyancy will remain relatively weak, which suggests that storm coverage/intensity will be limited. ..Thompson.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over the Pacific Northwest and slowly lose amplitude through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this morning with slightly elevated convection in the main baroclinic band, while it is not clear that post-frontal convection later today into tonight will be deep enough to produce lightning. Farther inland across parts of eastern OR/WA into ID, cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening lapse rates will result in at least weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the potential for isolated lightning flashes later this afternoon into early tonight. Otherwise, a modifying air mass along a stalled front across southeast FL and a diffuse southern stream shortwave trough could support isolated thunderstorms later today. However, forcing for ascent and buoyancy will remain relatively weak, which suggests that storm coverage/intensity will be limited. ..Thompson.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over the Pacific Northwest and slowly lose amplitude through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this morning with slightly elevated convection in the main baroclinic band, while it is not clear that post-frontal convection later today into tonight will be deep enough to produce lightning. Farther inland across parts of eastern OR/WA into ID, cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening lapse rates will result in at least weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the potential for isolated lightning flashes later this afternoon into early tonight. Otherwise, a modifying air mass along a stalled front across southeast FL and a diffuse southern stream shortwave trough could support isolated thunderstorms later today. However, forcing for ascent and buoyancy will remain relatively weak, which suggests that storm coverage/intensity will be limited. ..Thompson.. 11/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and south Florida. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over the Pacific Northwest and slowly lose amplitude through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this morning with slightly elevated convection in the main baroclinic band, while it is not clear that post-frontal convection later today into tonight will be deep enough to produce lightning. Farther inland across parts of eastern OR/WA into ID, cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening lapse rates will result in at least weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the potential for isolated lightning flashes later this afternoon into early tonight. Otherwise, a modifying air mass along a stalled front across southeast FL and a diffuse southern stream shortwave trough could support isolated thunderstorms later today. However, forcing for ascent and buoyancy will remain relatively weak, which suggests that storm coverage/intensity will be limited. ..Thompson.. 11/04/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across CA and into the Great Basin on D4/Tuesday, continuing eastward through the Four Corners region on D5/Wednesday and central/southern Plains on D6/Thursday. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through the northern stream during this period as well, moving from eastern MT/southern Saskatchewan across the Upper Great Lakes into southern Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley. The northern stream is expected to remain active, with another shortwave may follow in the wake of the first, moving over the Canadian Prairie Provinces on D5/Wednesday and into the Upper Great Lakes/Ontario vicinty on D6/Thursday. Another, more substantial wave may approach the west coast late in the period. Surface cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains ahead of the southern stream wave on D4/Tuesday, with the resulting low progressing across KS/OK on D4/Tuesday, through the Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday, and across the northern Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s will precede this front, but mid-level temperatures will remain relatively warm on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday, limiting thunderstorm chances. Cooler mid-level temperatures may eventually spread over the frontal zone on D6/Thursday, increasing thunderstorm chances. However, overall buoyancy will still be limited, tempering the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across CA and into the Great Basin on D4/Tuesday, continuing eastward through the Four Corners region on D5/Wednesday and central/southern Plains on D6/Thursday. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through the northern stream during this period as well, moving from eastern MT/southern Saskatchewan across the Upper Great Lakes into southern Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley. The northern stream is expected to remain active, with another shortwave may follow in the wake of the first, moving over the Canadian Prairie Provinces on D5/Wednesday and into the Upper Great Lakes/Ontario vicinty on D6/Thursday. Another, more substantial wave may approach the west coast late in the period. Surface cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains ahead of the southern stream wave on D4/Tuesday, with the resulting low progressing across KS/OK on D4/Tuesday, through the Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday, and across the northern Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s will precede this front, but mid-level temperatures will remain relatively warm on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday, limiting thunderstorm chances. Cooler mid-level temperatures may eventually spread over the frontal zone on D6/Thursday, increasing thunderstorm chances. However, overall buoyancy will still be limited, tempering the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across CA and into the Great Basin on D4/Tuesday, continuing eastward through the Four Corners region on D5/Wednesday and central/southern Plains on D6/Thursday. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through the northern stream during this period as well, moving from eastern MT/southern Saskatchewan across the Upper Great Lakes into southern Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley. The northern stream is expected to remain active, with another shortwave may follow in the wake of the first, moving over the Canadian Prairie Provinces on D5/Wednesday and into the Upper Great Lakes/Ontario vicinty on D6/Thursday. Another, more substantial wave may approach the west coast late in the period. Surface cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains ahead of the southern stream wave on D4/Tuesday, with the resulting low progressing across KS/OK on D4/Tuesday, through the Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday, and across the northern Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s will precede this front, but mid-level temperatures will remain relatively warm on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday, limiting thunderstorm chances. Cooler mid-level temperatures may eventually spread over the frontal zone on D6/Thursday, increasing thunderstorm chances. However, overall buoyancy will still be limited, tempering the severe potential. Read more